著者

光多 長温 後藤 和雄 宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

日本地域学会

雑誌

地域学研究 (ISSN:02876256)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, no.3, pp.705-719, 2011 (Released:2012-03-07)

参考文献数

8

被引用文献数

1 1

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This paper analyzes trends in demographic shift from regional areas to large metropolitan areas, and economic factors resulting from this demographic shift. First, we analyzed the status of demographic shifts between the large metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures, and then other individual prefectures for 5-year periods starting from 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, and for age segments of 5-14, 20-24, 25-64 and over 65 years. As a result, we observed population inflow from regional areas to the large metropolitan areas in Tokyo and Osaka Prefectures for the age segments up to 24 years old and population outflow from large metropolitan areas to regional areas for the age segments of 25-64 years, except for the period starting from 1970. As for Aichi Prefecture, the trends of population inflow from regional to metropolitan areas was observed since 1990 for the age segments above 25 years as well as the age segments up to 24 yearsNext, we extracted “inflow populations to Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures from other individual prefectures” as the ratio of inflow/outflow populations to each prefecture's population and “regional economic factors constituting the regional economy” as the ratio of each prefecture's factors against Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures for the above-mentioned periods, and conducted attribution analyses with a multiple regression analysis approach. As for regional economic factors, we adopted 13 factors including industrial composition ratio, administrative investment, academic background index, sales turnover in retail industry that resulted in the economic factors attributing to demographic shifts for each period. The factors affecting the three large metropolitan areas most were the “tertiary industry ratio” , “industrial shipment value”, “administrative investment value” and “retail sales value”. To control population outflows from regional areas to large metropolitan areas in the future, upgrading industrial structure, turning from a reliance on public works and improving intellectual levels should be important.JEL Classification: R00, R1

著者

光多 長温 後藤 和雄 宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

日本地域学会

雑誌

地域学研究 (ISSN:02876256)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.42, no.2, pp.271-285, 2012 (Released:2013-02-09)

参考文献数

7

被引用文献数

1

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Land prices in Japan changed almost in tandem with the economic growth rate until circa 1970. However, since 1970 these prices have changed with various economic factors other than the economic growth rate. Residential land prices surged in every region until 1985, but decreased until 1990. Only prices in the Tokyo and Kinki areas rose further. From 1995 and onward, after the burst of the bubble economy, residential land prices dropped sharply, especially in the Tokyo and Kinki areas, but the rate of decline became smaller in 2005. Commercial land prices, on the contrary, rose until 1990 in all regions, then dropped sharply until 1995 with the residential land prices. Declines were especially significant in the Tokyo and Kinki areas, where the land prices had surged sharply. Since then the rates of decline have became smaller in every region, and the prices turned upward in the Tokyo and Tokai areas in 2010.These land price changes are caused by various economic factors. This paper analyzes how well economic factors can explain the changes. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to analyze the relationships between the rates of quinquennial residential and commercial land price changes and economic factors. As a result of trial and error, we employed the following 16 economic factors; population, rate of population aging, rate of secondary industries, rate of tertiary industries, unemployment rate, per capita prefectural income, financial capability index, per capita budget allocation from the central and local governments for public works projects, labor productivity, per capita annual retail sales, academic qualification index, capital expenditures, housing starts, product shipment value, consumption expenditures, outstanding loans and discounts. With these analyses, we obtained determination coefficients of 0.69-0.95, with residential land coefficients of 0.80-0.93 and commercial land coefficients of 0.69-0.95 after the degrees of freedom were adjusted. Based on these results we analyzed the relationships between economic conditions and partial correlation coefficients for each period and found the partial correlation coefficients responding to economic conditions in each period affect changes in land prices. Factors affecting land price changes are complex so it is difficult to explain every aspect by these analyses that are also affected by non-economic factors. This paper contributes to the analyses of factors causing changes in land prices of Japan, rather than give a full explanation of land price changes based on economic factors.JEL Classification: R00, R1