著者

宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

環太平洋産業連関分析学会

雑誌

産業連関 (ISSN:13419803)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, no.1-2, pp.24-29, 2010-06-30 (Released:2015-03-28)

参考文献数

6

被引用文献数

1 1

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リーマンショックに始まる今回の世界同時不況は,国際的なマクロ経済政策の疾患と経済学自体への重大な不信を招く結果となった.原因は金融工学手法の暴走 や過剰流動性と世界通貨システムの不安定性にとどまらず,各国政府の経済情報システムの根幹となるマクロ計量モデルの基本システムにも問題がなかったか? 主流派のマクロ経済理論に対するマネタリズムの反革命がいかなる効果を及ぼしたのか?など.21世紀の新しい世界環境にふさわしいマクロモデルの供給や技術サイドの構造を重視するレオンチェフ型モデルとの連結の可能性など,今回本学会の代表的メンバーの方々による自由な討論が行われた.その結果を私なりに整理し,所見を述べたものが以下の小論である.広く本学会の方々にこの分野での論争が巻き起こることを期待したい.

著者

光多 長温 後藤 和雄 宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

日本地域学会

雑誌

地域学研究 (ISSN:02876256)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.41, no.3, pp.705-719, 2011 (Released:2012-03-07)

参考文献数

8

被引用文献数

1 1

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This paper analyzes trends in demographic shift from regional areas to large metropolitan areas, and economic factors resulting from this demographic shift. First, we analyzed the status of demographic shifts between the large metropolitan areas of Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures, and then other individual prefectures for 5-year periods starting from 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, and for age segments of 5-14, 20-24, 25-64 and over 65 years. As a result, we observed population inflow from regional areas to the large metropolitan areas in Tokyo and Osaka Prefectures for the age segments up to 24 years old and population outflow from large metropolitan areas to regional areas for the age segments of 25-64 years, except for the period starting from 1970. As for Aichi Prefecture, the trends of population inflow from regional to metropolitan areas was observed since 1990 for the age segments above 25 years as well as the age segments up to 24 yearsNext, we extracted “inflow populations to Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures from other individual prefectures” as the ratio of inflow/outflow populations to each prefecture's population and “regional economic factors constituting the regional economy” as the ratio of each prefecture's factors against Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi Prefectures for the above-mentioned periods, and conducted attribution analyses with a multiple regression analysis approach. As for regional economic factors, we adopted 13 factors including industrial composition ratio, administrative investment, academic background index, sales turnover in retail industry that resulted in the economic factors attributing to demographic shifts for each period. The factors affecting the three large metropolitan areas most were the “tertiary industry ratio” , “industrial shipment value”, “administrative investment value” and “retail sales value”. To control population outflows from regional areas to large metropolitan areas in the future, upgrading industrial structure, turning from a reliance on public works and improving intellectual levels should be important.JEL Classification: R00, R1

著者

宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

環太平洋産業連関分析学会

雑誌

産業連関 (ISSN:13419803)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.2, pp.3-4, 2011-06-30 (Released:2014-08-09)

被引用文献数

1

著者

宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

環太平洋産業連関分析学会

雑誌

産業連関 (ISSN:13419803)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, no.4, pp.10-17, 2000 (Released:2015-07-03)

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日本経済の低迷は曇天模様のなかで続いている。計測によると部門別の稼働率は平均で65%で,これか四半世紀に及んだ慢性的「政策不況」の帰結である。このままでは失業と社会不安や円高圧力は中長期的に継続する。IT革命のみで、このギャップを埋めるには,あまりにも深刻で,いまや日本経済にはニューディール型の巨大なインパクトが不可欠である。21世紀初頭の長期戦略として,まず経済を5%台の回復軌道にのせ,デフレギャップを解決させつつ,次いで大胆な財政再建という長期2段階の再建方式を提案する。

著者

光多 長温 後藤 和雄 宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

日本地域学会

雑誌

地域学研究 (ISSN:02876256)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.42, no.2, pp.271-285, 2012 (Released:2013-02-09)

参考文献数

7

被引用文献数

1

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Land prices in Japan changed almost in tandem with the economic growth rate until circa 1970. However, since 1970 these prices have changed with various economic factors other than the economic growth rate. Residential land prices surged in every region until 1985, but decreased until 1990. Only prices in the Tokyo and Kinki areas rose further. From 1995 and onward, after the burst of the bubble economy, residential land prices dropped sharply, especially in the Tokyo and Kinki areas, but the rate of decline became smaller in 2005. Commercial land prices, on the contrary, rose until 1990 in all regions, then dropped sharply until 1995 with the residential land prices. Declines were especially significant in the Tokyo and Kinki areas, where the land prices had surged sharply. Since then the rates of decline have became smaller in every region, and the prices turned upward in the Tokyo and Tokai areas in 2010.These land price changes are caused by various economic factors. This paper analyzes how well economic factors can explain the changes. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to analyze the relationships between the rates of quinquennial residential and commercial land price changes and economic factors. As a result of trial and error, we employed the following 16 economic factors; population, rate of population aging, rate of secondary industries, rate of tertiary industries, unemployment rate, per capita prefectural income, financial capability index, per capita budget allocation from the central and local governments for public works projects, labor productivity, per capita annual retail sales, academic qualification index, capital expenditures, housing starts, product shipment value, consumption expenditures, outstanding loans and discounts. With these analyses, we obtained determination coefficients of 0.69-0.95, with residential land coefficients of 0.80-0.93 and commercial land coefficients of 0.69-0.95 after the degrees of freedom were adjusted. Based on these results we analyzed the relationships between economic conditions and partial correlation coefficients for each period and found the partial correlation coefficients responding to economic conditions in each period affect changes in land prices. Factors affecting land price changes are complex so it is difficult to explain every aspect by these analyses that are also affected by non-economic factors. This paper contributes to the analyses of factors causing changes in land prices of Japan, rather than give a full explanation of land price changes based on economic factors.JEL Classification: R00, R1

著者

宍戸 駿太郎

出版者

環太平洋産業連関分析学会

雑誌

産業連関 (ISSN:13419803)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.2, pp.3-4, 2011

著者

宍戸 駿太郎 川上 彰 黒川 基裕

出版者

環太平洋産業連関分析学会

雑誌

産業連関 (ISSN:13419803)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.3, pp.40-50, 2011-10-31 (Released:2014-08-07)

参考文献数

9

被引用文献数

1

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東日本大震災の経済・社会的損害の測定をストックとフローの両面から地域別に計測し,次に復興の過程の経済効果を地域別とマクロ経済の両面から代替的な政策の下で分析を行う.とくに財源とその規模をめぐる政策如何で,日本経済の中・長期の成長経路とデフレ脱出にいかに影響するかの観点から,代替的政策の評価を行う.使用される計量経済モデルは日米・世界モデル研究所のレオンチェフ・ケインジアンモデル:DEMIOS と(財),東北経済開発センターの地域間産業連関表ならびに経済産業省の全国・地域間産業連関表である.