著者

小浦 孝次

出版者

日本建築学会

雑誌

日本建築学会計画系論文集 (ISSN:13404210)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.82, no.741, pp.2907-2913, 2017 (Released:2017-11-30)

参考文献数

5

被引用文献数

1

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In the building administration, it is necessary to improve existing buildings as earthquake resistant, fire prevention and energy conservation countermeasures. Grasp of the number of residual houses by building year is important. In this paper, the building year estimation method for existing buildings using "Housing and Land Statistics Survey" in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications(MIC) Bureau of Statistics. At first, the number of houses built in each year was estimated. The residual rate curve of the housing can be calculated using three parameters and three statistics (estimated housing starts before 1944, the number of new housing starts by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport since 1945, housing and land statistics survey). The building year distribution of housing in 2013 was estimated from the 2008 survival curve. The estimation result was similar to the statistics of 2013. This method was confirmed that this estimation method is effective for short-term future prediction. This estimation method is effective for grasping the number of residual houses for each building year which was previously difficult. For example, in the total number of homes, the total number of houses with residence, vacancy, in a lost house. Furthermore, changes in the number of residual houses by construction year were obtained by comparing estimation results of "housing and land statistics surveys" every 5 years.