著者

小澤 純夫 科学技術動向研究センター

出版者

科学技術政策研究所 科学技術動向研究センター

雑誌

科学技術動向2010年9月号 = Science & Technology Trends (ISSN:13493663)

巻号頁・発行日

2010

著者

小澤 純夫 月橋 文孝

出版者

一般社団法人 日本鉄鋼協会

雑誌

鉄と鋼 (ISSN:00211575)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.96, no.12, pp.706-713, 2010-12-01 (Released:2010-12-25)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

4

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The Utility of Stock hypothesis, which assumes that an in-use stock of constructional material is a function of GDP, was formulated and a clear correlation between the world steel stock and the world GDP led to the estimation that the world demand for iron ore (primary iron) depends not on the volume of GDP but on the variation of GDP, as already reported. It also became clear that the flow of primary iron has the controlling effect on the world production of crude steel. In this study, the prediction power of the Utility of Stock hypothesis is verified. Based on the verification, the global demand for iron source until 2050 is projected by deciding a world 1-region model.

著者

小澤 純夫 林 誠一 月橋 文孝

出版者

一般社団法人 日本鉄鋼協会

雑誌

鉄と鋼 (ISSN:00211575)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.95, no.6, pp.522-530, 2009-06-01 (Released:2009-08-15)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

4 5

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To forecast iron source demand, the Intensity of Use hypothesis, which assumes that material consumption per capita is a function of GDP per capita, is the most dominant theory in existing studies. However, this hypothesis is not effective for a world one-region model of iron sources. Therefore, we focused our attention on utility, and we suppose that economic growth is a major driver to increase the utility. As the utility of steel sustains for ages after purchase, we formulate the Utility of Stock hypothesis, which assumes that the in-use steel stock is a function of GDP. In this study, the world steel stock was computed and the Utility of Stock hypothesis was tested. Clear correlation is found between the steel stock and the GDP. It leads to the estimation that the world demand for iron ore depends not on the volume of GDP but on the variation of GDP. For the first time with total world figures, the result enables us to rationalize the recent decoupling between the world growth of iron source demand and the economic growth.

著者

小澤 純夫 月橋 文孝

出版者

一般社団法人 日本鉄鋼協会

雑誌

鉄と鋼 (ISSN:00211575)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.95, no.10, pp.710-719, 2009-10-01 (Released:2009-12-10)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

7 12

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The Utility of Stock hypothesis, which assumes that the in-use stock of constructional material is a function of GDP, was formulated and the clear correlation between the world steel stock and the GDP led to the estimation that the world demand for iron ore (primary iron) depends not on the volume of GDP but on the variation of GDP, as already reported. In this study, the world steel stock in use is computed. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to show the effect of lower reliable data such as the usage period (lifetime) of iron-containing final products. Clear correlation is found between the in-use steel stock and the steel stock. Hence, the Utility of Stock hypothesis is verified.