著者

大澤 義明 小野田 竜已 小林 隆史

出版者

一般社団法人日本建築学会

雑誌

日本建築学会計画系論文集 = Transactions of AIJ. Journal of architecture, planning and environmental engineering (ISSN:13404210)

巻号頁・発行日

no.634, pp.2605-2612, 2008-12-30

参考文献数

26

被引用文献数

1

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The cohort-component method is widely used for population projection of local governments in Japan. The purpose of the paper is to examine aggregation errors caused by the cohort-component method, which can account for age distribution. First, we show that the populations estimated at aggregated level frequently are less than those at disaggregated level by using municipality data in Ibaraki Prefecture. Second, we prove this tendency through a simple mathematical model using Lexis diagram by focusing on internal migration.