著者

張 艶 Yan Zhang

雑誌

二松学舎大学國際政経論集

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.137-158, 2008-03

---

中国の株式市場は1990年から本格的にスタートし、中国経済の急成長とともに急速に伸びてきた。現在、新興国の株式市場として大きく注目されており、その存在感はますます高まっている。中国株式市場が成長する一方、株価の変動も激しく、低迷の時期も経験した。政府は株式市場の安定成長を目指して、非流通株の放出、法制度の整備など、次々と政策を打ち出し、試行錯誤を繰り返しながら、中国の株式市場はその形を整えつつある。本論文では、中国の株式市場を考察し、株式市場の発展、問題点および株式市場に影響する要因を明らかにし、株式市場に対する政策のインプリケーションを導き出す。本論文では、中国の株式市場を分析対象として、まず、株式市場の発展過程と問題点などについて考察した。そして、中国の株式市場をより的確に理解するために、データ生成過程(DGP)の慎重な検討を踏まえて、I(0)変数という点で、上海総合指数、固定資産投資、工業総生産、社会商品小売総額の4変数について、Granger因果性テスト、インパルス反応、分散分解などの分析を試みた。Granger因果性テストでは、上海総合指数に対して、固定資産投資、社会商品小売総額からGrangerの意味での因果関係はあった。工業総生産は上海総合指数に対し、Grangerの意味での因果関係はない。さらに、DGPの視点から、4変数VARモデルが中国の株価を分析する上で有益であることを明らかにした。インパルス反応では、固定資産投資、工業総生産、社会商品小売総額3変数のうち、株価にもっとも影響するのは固定資産投資であった。次は、家計消費の代理変数と考えられる社会商品小売総額であった。分散分解では、上海総合指数の変動は3変数のうち、固定資産投資がもっとも大きく説明できた。固定資産投資は中国経済の高度成長を牽引しているだけでなく、中国の株式市場にも影響していることが分かった。高成長の中国では、過剰な固定資産投資はいつも問題視されているが、その急激な縮小は不測の混乱をもたらす恐れがあるため、緩やかな調整が望まれる。The stock market in China started in 1990, and has expanded rapidly. Stock fluctuation has been very sharp as the stock market has matured in China. The government has implemented policies one after another aiming at the stable growth of the stock market. The purpose of this paper was as follows. I clarified development and problems of the stock market in China, analyzed the factors that influence the stock market, and derived implications of the policy for the stock market. In this paper, first of all, development and problems of the stock market were considered. Then after the data generation process was carefully examined, from the viewpoint of 1(0) variables, analyses were tried using the Granger test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of four variables (Shanghai stock exchange composite index, investment in fixed assets, total industrial production, and total retail amount of commodities). With the Granger test for the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, there were Granger causal relations from investment in fixed assets and the total retail amount of commodities, but there was not a Granger causal relation from total industrial production. Furthermore, it was clarified that a four-variable VAR model was useful for analyzing the stock market in China from the viewpoint of DGP. In impulse response, it was investment in fixed assets that influenced the Shanghai stock exchange composite index most among the three variables. Next in order of influence was total retail amount of commodities. In variance decomposition, investment in fixed assets was most useful in explaining the fluctuation of the Shanghai stock exchange composite index among the three variables. It has been understood that investment in fixed assets not only stimulates the high growth of the economy, but also influences the stock market in China. Although excessive investment in fixed assets is always brought into question now, gradual adjustment is expected because sudden reduction might bring unexpected confusion.

著者

張 艶 川端 望

出版者

産業学会

雑誌

産業学会研究年報 (ISSN:09187162)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2013, no.28, pp.73-85, 2013 (Released:2014-06-01)

参考文献数

15

---

This paper aims to determine the nature of entrepreneur behavior, business creation, and transformation of software companies in Dalian City through case studies.Four companies that were launched in the 2000s were studied. These companies' businesses initially involved labor intensive processes of offshore software development for the Japanese market. However, they faced the challenge of business transformation after the world financial crisis. Their concrete agenda included foray into high-grade processes, diversification of products and services, and exploitation of the Chinese market.All four companies tried to transform themselves by creating a unique advantage. The development of such an advantage was a focal point for the software companies to transform their business structure that heavily relied on labor intensive offshore development. The acquisition of high-grade human resources was an important factor for gaining this advantage.In the field of offshore development for the Japanese market, cross-border cooperation between processes was necessary to move into high-grade processes. The “on-off site” hypothesis was valid, while having Bridge System Engineer (BSE) in the company was not a prerequisite.Differences were observed across the four case studies. In China, Japan-affiliated companies approached other Japan-affiliated companies, while Chinese companies approached other Chinese companies. Moreover, the disparity of resource availability for transformation was large between big companies and small- and medium-sized companies. As a result, a difference was observed in the strategy employed by the companies for transformation, especially in personnel management in the face of high liquidity in the labor market in China.