著者

ITO Kosuke WU Chun-Chieh CHAN Kelvin T. F. TOUMI Ralf DAVIS Chris

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-001, (Released:2019-10-08)

被引用文献数

13

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While the fundamental understanding of the movement of a tropical cyclone (TC) is fairly mature, there are still notable advancements being made. This paper summarizes new concepts and updates on existing fundamental theories on TC movement obtained from simplified barotropic models, full-physics models, and data analysis particularly since 2014. It includes the recent works on the interaction of the TC with its environment and the fundamental aspects of predictability related to TC movement. The conventional concepts of the steering flow, β-gyre, and diabatic heating remain important. Yet, a more complete understanding of mechanisms governing TC movement serves as an important basis toward the further improvement of track forecasts.

著者

YAMADA Hiroyuki ITO Kosuke TSUBOKI Kazuhisa SHINODA Taro OHIGASHI Tadayasu YAMAGUCHI Munehiko NAKAZAWA Tetsuo NAGAHAMA Norio SHIMIZU Kensaku

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-063, (Released:2021-07-01)

被引用文献数

11

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Upper-tropospheric aircraft reconnaissance was carried out for Typhoon Lan (2017) using a civil jet with a newly developed dropsonde system. This was the first case of a Japanese research group observing the inner core of an intense typhoon using dropsondes. This paper describes the warm-core structure in the eye and the associated thermodynamic and kinematic features of the eyewall. During two days of reconnaissance, this typhoon preserved its peak intensity in an environment with a strengthening vertical shear. Dropsondes captured a double warm-core structure with a higher perturbation temperature in the middle and upper troposphere, which persisted between the two flight missions. The two warm cores show a difference in the equivalent potential temperature (θe) of more than 10 K, suggesting different air origins. Saturation point analysis suggest that air observed in the upper warm core was entrained from the eyewall. The eyewall updraft in the left-of-shear semicircle had a two-layer structure with a higher θe and lower absolute angular momentum on the inner side of the updraft core. Analyses of the saturation point and parcel method suggest that the warmer air with a θe exceeding 370 K on the inner side of the updrafts originated from the eye boundary layer and was eventually transported into the upper warm core. These results led us to hypothesize that the vertical transport of high-θe air from the eye boundary layer contributed to the continuous eye warming in the upper troposphere against the negative effect of a strengthening environmental wind shear on the storm intensity. This study demonstrates the significance of eyewall-penetrating upper-tropospheric reconnaissance for monitoring the warm-core structure in the present situation where accurate measurements of both humidity and temperature for calculating θe can only be made with dropsonde-type expendables.

著者

FUJITA Mikiko SATO Tomonori YAMADA Tomohito J. KAWAZOE Sho NAKANO Masuo ITO Kosuke

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-022, (Released:2018-12-17)

被引用文献数

4

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We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produces a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enable us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future.