著者

WATANABE Shingo FUJITA Mikiko KAWAZOE Sho SUGIMOTO Shiori OKADA Yasuko MIZUTA Ryo ISHII Masayoshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-038, (Released:2019-03-13)

被引用文献数

4

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Future changes in the climatological distribution of clear air turbulence (CAT) and its seasonality over the North Pacific are estimated based on an ensemble of climate projections under warming for the globally averaged surface air temperature of 2 K relative to pre-industrial levels, which includes over 3000 years of ensembles using a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM outputs are interpolated to a 1.25° horizontal resolution, and the climatological CAT frequency is computed. The CAT broadly decreases in the mid-latitude central to western North Pacific along with the anticyclonic (south) side of its present-day high-frequency band extending from Japan to the eastern North Pacific. Meanwhile, large relative increases are found outside the band, implying an increased risk of CAT encounters. Uncertainty in future CAT changes due to uncertainties in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change is addressed for the first time using six selected Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) climate models. The uncertainty is greatest in the boreal winter and spring over the central North Pacific, and is associated with uncertainty in future changes in the jet stream and upper-level synoptic-scale disturbances.

著者

KAWAZOE Sho FUJITA Mikiko SUGIMOTO Shiori OKADA Yasuko WATANABE Shingo

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-067, (Released:2020-08-28)

被引用文献数

2

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This study investigates future changes to extremely cool days (ECDs) during the summer (June-August) season in northeastern Japan by applying self-organizing map (SOM) technique to large ensemble simulations from the “database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change” (d4PDF). Two separate SOMs, one trained on mean sea level pressure using a combination of JRA-55 reanalysis and d4PDF to evaluate model performance, and a “master” SOM, which trained the SOMs using historical, +2K, and +4K simulations, were created to investigate possible climate change impacts to future ECDs. For model evaluation, summer climatology and ECDs were confirmed to occur with similar frequencies between circulation patterns in the JRA-55 and d4PDF. Surface temperature anomalies and horizontal wind composite from several high frequency ECD nodes exhibit similar spatial patterns for all days and ECD occurring in the node, with ECD composites depicting particularly strong northeasterly winds, commonly referred to as Yamase, blowing from high latitudes toward northeast Japan. Future changes using “master” SOMs suggest a gradual shift (from +2K to +4K) in preferred circulation patterns that result in ECDs, with the greatest increase in frequency associated to those with a strong low pressure system off eastern Japan and a moderate intensity Okhotsk Sea high, and decreased ECDs to those with either a strong Okhotsk Sea high or westward extension of the North Pacific high. Lastly, changes to the intensity of future ECDs are investigated by examining low level thermal advection. Results suggest that circulation patterns associated with increased ECD frequency coincide with those with very strong cold air advection for all climates, though the magnitude differs based on circulation patterns. Future changes show a weakening cold air advection and decreasing ECDs, due in large part to weakening meridional temperature gradient east of Japan.

著者

FUJITA Mikiko SATO Tomonori YAMADA Tomohito J. KAWAZOE Sho NAKANO Masuo ITO Kosuke

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-022, (Released:2018-12-17)

被引用文献数

4

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We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produces a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enable us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future.