著者

IKEDA Takashi KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-067, (Released:2021-08-20)

被引用文献数

8

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We developed fifty-five models for predicting the number of ambulance transport due to heatstroke (hereafter referred to as the number of patients with heatstroke) on the next day in Tokyo, using different combinations of eleven explanatory variables sets and five methods (three statistical models and two machine learning) for 10 years (2010-2019). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the number of heatstroke patients was minimal when the best model was developed by combining six explanatory variables (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, number of days since June 1, and the number of patients with heatstroke on the previous day) and the generalized additive model. The best model remarkably improved prediction by 52.1 % compared to a widely used model, which primarily utilizes temperature as an explanatory variable and the generalized linear model as a method. Further analysis investigating the contribution of the explanatory variables and method to the prediction showed that RMSE was reduced by 49.7 % using the above six explanatory variables compared to using the only temperature and by 14.6 % using the generalized additive model compared to using the generalized linear model.

著者

NAKAMURA Shingo KUSAKA Hiroyuki SATO Ryogo SATO Takuto

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-030, (Released:2022-04-08)

被引用文献数

4

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This study assesses heatstroke risk in the near future (2031-2050) under RCP8.5 scenario. The developed model is based on a generalized linear model with the number of ambulance transport due to heatstroke (hereafter the patients with heatstroke) as the explained variable and the daily maximum temperature or Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) as the explanatory variable. With the model based on the daily maximum temperature, we performed the projection of the patients with heatstroke in case of considering only climate change (Case 1), climate change and population dynamics (Case 2), and climate change, population dynamics, and long-term heat acclimatization (Case 3). In Case 2, the number of patients with heatstroke in the near future will be 2.3 times higher than that in the baseline period (1981-2000) on average nationwide. The number of future patients with heatstroke in Case 2 is about 10 % larger than that in Case 1 on average nationwide despite of population decline. This is due to the increase in the number of elderly people from the baseline period to the near future. However, there were 21 prefectures where the number of patients in Case 2 is smaller compared to Case 1. Comparing the results from Cases 1 and 3 reveals that the number of patients with heatstroke could be reduced by about 60 % nationwide by acquiring heat tolerance and changing lifestyles. Notably, given the lifestyle changes represented by the widespread use of air conditioners, the number of patients with heatstroke in the near future was lower than that of the baseline period in some areas. In other words, lifestyle changes can be an important adaptation to the risk of heatstroke emergency. All of the above results were also confirmed in the prediction model with WBGT as the explanatory variable.

著者

VITANOVA Lidia Lazarova KUSAKA Hiroyuki DOAN Van Quang NISHI Akifumi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-013, (Released:2018-11-16)

被引用文献数

6

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This study investigates the impact of urbanization on surface air temperature and the urban heat island (UHI) for Sendai City. We estimate the impacts of the urbaniza-tion during the 150-year period by comparing the 1850s to the 2000s case. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1-km horizontal resolution and three land-use datasets, one for potential natural vegetation (PNV) data, the other two for realistic land-use data (the 1850s and 2000s). Results from the control simulation (2000s land-use case) are firstly verified against observations. The results show that the WRF model reasonably well reproduces the diurnal variation of the observed surface air temperatures in the 2000s land-use case at six stations in Miyagi prefecture. The model mean biases range from −0.29 to −1.18°C in August (10-year average) and from −0.44 to −1.50°C in February (10-year average). Secondly, the impacts of urbanization on the surface air temperature distribution in and around Sendai City are evaluated. In the 1850s land-use case, the very small urban area of Sendai City results in a negligible UHI. This case gives nearly the same surface air temperatures as experiments using the PNV. Comparing the simulated monthly mean surface air temperatures in the central part of Sendai City between the 1850s and 2000s land-use cases, we find that the monthly mean temperature for February in the 2000s is 1.40°C higher than that in the 1850s, whereas that for August is 1.30°C. Similarly, we find considerable nocturnal (1800–0500 JST) average surface air temperature increases of 2.20°C in February and 2.00°C in August.

著者

KUSAKA Hiroyuki NAKAMURA Yusuke ASANO Yuki

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-035, (Released:2022-05-13)

被引用文献数

1

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Ultra Violet (UV) parasols are a reasonable countermeasure against heat stress as they are portable and inexpensive. This study compared the heat stress mitigation effect of a UV parasol with that of street trees and dry-mist spraying on a hot and humid summer day in Japan. We observed meteorological elements and calculated the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) under UV parasol, street trees, dry-mist spraying, and direct sunlight. The observed UTCI and WBGT under the UV parasol were lower than those in direct sunlight by 4.4 and 1.3°C, respectively, because of the decrease in black globe temperature caused by the reduced downward shortwave radiation. This demonstrated that UV parasol reduced heatstroke risk by one level. The effect of the UV parasol was equal to or greater than 75 % of that of the street trees from the perspective of UTCI. The street trees reduced the UTCI and WBGT by 5.9 and 1.9°C, respectively, compared to those in direct sunlight, resulting in the reduction of heatstroke risk by one level. In contrast, dry-mist spraying did not mitigate heat stress in conditions with moderate winds. Although the results of this study were obtained from observations on a single day, comparison with earlier studies confirms that the values observed in this study are representative results on summer days in Japan.

著者

SATO Takuto KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-047, (Released:2021-04-14)

被引用文献数

1

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In this study, we compare the accuracy of five representative similarity metrics in extracting sea level pressure (SLP) patterns for accurate weather chart classification: correlation coefficient, Euclidean distance (EUC), S1-score (S1), structural similarity (SSIM), and average hash. We use a large amount of teacher data to statistically evaluate the accuracy of each metric. The evaluation results reveal that S1 and SSIM have the highest accuracy in terms of both average and maximum scores. Their accuracy does not change even when non-ideal data are used as the teacher data. In addition, S1 and SSIM can reproduce the subjective resemblance between two maps better than EUC. However, EUC reproduces the central position of the signal in a sample case. This study can serve as a reference for identifying the most useful similarity metric for the classification of SLP patterns, especially when using non-ideal teacher data.

著者

NISHI Akifumi KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-044, (Released:2019-04-19)

被引用文献数

3

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This study numerically examined how the locally strong “Karakkaze” wind in the Kanto Plain of Japan is affected by terrain shape, particularly by a convex feature in the mountain range. Our method involved running idealized numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast model with a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km. The results revealed that a strong-wind region formed in the lee area of the convex feature, hereafter the semi-basin, and leeward of the semi-basin. In contrast, weak-wind areas formed adjacent to the strong-wind region. These results were consistent with the basic features of the observed surface wind pattern of the Karakkaze during the winter monsoon. However, such a flow pattern did not appear in the numerical simulation with a mountain range that lacked a convex feature. Sensitivity experiments were also conducted to evaluate the detailed effects of a mountain range with convexity. Sensitivity experiments with different convex shapes revealed that strong winds appeared within and leeward of the semi-basin when the aspect ratio of convexity (ratio of the wave amplitude to the wavelength of the convexity) exceeded about 0.5. Sensitivity experiments on terrain shape suggested that saddles in the mountain range were not essential to the formation of the Karakkaze, but they could affect its strength. Sensitivity experiments on the mountain Froude number, Frm, showed that locally strong winds within and leeward of the semi-basin appeared only when the Frm was in the range 0.42–1.04. Sensitivity experiments with surface heat fluxes (SHFs) showed that the basic structure of the strong-wind region in the leeward plain of the convex feature did not depend strongly on SHFs. However, the addition of SHFs reduced the surface wind speed but increased the size of the strong-wind region.

著者

YAMADA Shunsuke KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-039, (Released:2022-06-21)

被引用文献数

1

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We examined the essential features and formation mechanism of the strong local “Suzuka-oroshi” winds, which are located leeward of the Suzuka Mountains in Japan. This area features a favorable topography for downslope windstorms. Climatological analysis revealed that Suzuka-oroshi mainly occurred after an extratropical cyclone with a cold front and passed the Sea of Japan (55 % of all occurrences). Additionally, inversion layers (1-5 km level) were observed in 74 % of cases. Climatological analysis using spatially dense observational data showed that the strongest winds tended to blow in the northern part of the plain on the leeward side. Numerical simulations for one case by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1 km grid increment supported this finding. Simulation results with and without the Suzuka Mountains demonstrated that the strong Suzuka-oroshi in the northern part of the plain comprised downslope windstorms with transition of flow regime (internal Froude number was less than 1.0 at the windward of mountains and larger than 1.0 above the leeward slope). Additionally, differences in height of the mountains between the north and south parts results in the greater wind speed in the northern parts compared to the southern parts.

著者

OKADA Maki KUSAKA Hiroyuki

出版者

Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan

雑誌

Journal of agricultural meteorology (ISSN:00218588)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.69, no.1, pp.23-32, 2013-04

被引用文献数

24

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Globe temperature is one element of the heat stress index, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, which is used to evaluate how radiation adds to thermal discomfort in the workplace. As the measurement of globe temperature is not standardized, empirical equations were introduced to estimate the globe temperature from weather factors, including air temperature, solar radiation and wind speed. As it was not known whether these equations were applicable in an urban park environment with vegetation, we observed the globe temperature using a set of instruments in three parks. The observation along with the heat balance analysis of the globe revealed that the globe temperature depended curvilinearly on solar radiation and that wind speed influenced this dependence. We compared two previously proposed empirical equations to the observed globe temperature and found both equations had systematic estimation errors. Although the errors were reduced by fitting the equations to the observed data and reevaluating their numerical constants, the equations still had shortcomings, as one did not consider wind speed and the other included a discontinuity. We therefore derived a new equation based on the heat balance equations of the globe with its numerical constants experimentally determined. This equation was able to predict the curvilinear dependence of the globe temperature on global solar radiation without any discontinuity, and it also showed the globe temperature response to wind speed.