- 著者
- Asuka Suzuki-Parker Hiroyuki Kusaka Izuru Takayabu Koji Dairaku Noriko N. Ishizaki Suryun Ham
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.14, pp.97-104, 2018 (Released:2018-07-27)
- 参考文献数
- 49
- 被引用文献数
- 14
Targeting to East Asian summer monsoon for the first time, this study presents an assessment of projection uncertainty in ensemble dynamical downscaling (DDS) simulations. Based on 12-member DDS simulations comprised of three global climate models (GCMs) and four regional climate models (RCMs), we evaluate contributions of GCM and RCM uncertainty to the total uncertainty of summer-time precipitation projections around Japan. Our results show that contribution of RCM uncertainty can be comparable to that of GCM uncertainty in magnitudes. This finding draws a distinction from the past studies showing the dominance of GCM uncertainty. Most notably, our results show that RCM uncertainty for number of precipitating days appears around and over the land. RCM uncertainty for precipitation amounts also shows a dependence on topography but to a lessor degree. These RCM uncertainty characteristics are potentially linked to the difference in various RCM configurations such as physics schemes and model topography. In contrast, GCM uncertainty mostly appears over the ocean, which can be attributed to the difference in the GCM's future projections of East Asian summer monsoon. Our finding may be of an importance for water disaster and water resource management with DDS.
- 著者
- Shiori Sugimoto Rui Ito Koji Dairaku Hiroaki Kawase Hidetaka Sasaki Shingo Watanabe Yasuko Okada Sho Kawazoe Takeshi Yamazaki Takahiro Sasai
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.14, pp.46-51, 2018 (Released:2018-04-01)
- 参考文献数
- 32
- 被引用文献数
- 7
To evaluate the influence of spatial resolution in numerical simulations on the duration of consecutive dry days (CDDs) and near-surface temperature over the central mountains in Japan, a regional climate model was used to conduct two experiments with horizontal resolutions of 5 and 20 km. Compared with observations, the spatial and temporal features of the CDDs were simulated well in the 5 km experiment, whereas in the 20 km simulation they were overestimated over the mountains and underestimated in the surrounding regions. The accuracy in the simulated CDDs affected the near-surface temperature in the model. In years with a difference of more than five days in the CDDs between the 5 and 20 km experiments, near-surface temperatures over the mountains were 0.2-0.3 K lower in the 5 km simulation compared with the 20 km simulation. This was due to the lower number of CDDs in 5 km simulation causing active cloud convection and reduced net radiation at the ground, resulting from a large decrease in the solar radiation at the ground. In addition, a land surface wetness controls a spatial heterogeneity of temperature difference between two experiments.