著者

Kentaro Araki Teruyuki Kato Yasutaka Hirockawa Wataru Mashiko

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-002, (Released:2020-12-24)

被引用文献数

33

---

This study investigated characteristics of atmospheric environmental fields in the occurrence of quasi-stationary convective bands (QSCBs) in Kyushu, western Japan during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event. We performed case studies of extreme rainfall subevents in the Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures on 3-4 July (2020KK) and northern Kyushu on 6-7 July 2020 (2020NK), compared with two heavy rainfall events in northern Kyushu in 2017 and 2018.Nine QSCBs were objectively extracted during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event, causing hourly precipitation amounts exceeding 100 mm twenty times. In 2020KK, the environmental field with extremely large precipitable water due to low-level and middle-level humidity was affected by the upper-level cold airflow, which resulted in favorable condition for the deep convection development. Consequently, the lightning activity became high, and cloud tops were the highest in comparison to previous events. QSCBs in 2020KK and 2020NK were located along a low-level convergence line/zone associated with an inflow that had extremely large water vapor flux on the south side of the mesoscale Baiu frontal depressions. In most of the QSCB cases in 2020, mesoscale depressions were observed and enhanced horizontal winds, which led to extremely large low-level water vapor flux to produce short-term heavy rainfall.

著者

Yukiko Imada Masahiro Watanabe Hiroaki Kawase Hideo Shiogama Miki Arai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15A, pp.8-12, 2019 (Released:2019-06-07)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

13 70

---

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

著者

Yukiko Imada Masahiro Watanabe Hiroaki Kawase Hideo Shiogama Miki Arai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.15A-002, (Released:2019-05-22)

被引用文献数

12 70

---

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

著者

Kosuke Ito Hiroyuki Yamada Munehiko Yamaguchi Tetsuo Nakazawa Norio Nagahama Kensaku Shimizu Tadayasu Ohigashi Taro Shinoda Kazuhisa Tsuboki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.105-110, 2018 (Released:2018-07-28)

参考文献数

30

被引用文献数

1 23

---

The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for the Improvement of Intensity Estimations/Forecasts (T-PARCII). To evaluate the impact of dropsondes on forecast skill, 12 36-h forecasts were conducted using a Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) with a JMA-NHM-based mesoscale four-dimensional data assimilation (DA) system. Track forecast skill improved over all forecast times with the assimilation of the dropsonde data. The improvement rate was 8-16% for 27-36-h forecasts. Minimum sea level pressure (Pmin) forecasts were generally degenerated (improved) for relatively short-term (long-term) forecasts by adding the dropsonde data, and maximum wind speed (Vmax) forecasts were degenerated. Some of the changes in the track and Vmax forecasts were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. It is notable that the dropsonde-derived estimate of Pmin was closer to the real-time analysis by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo than the RSMC Tokyo best track analysis. The degeneration in intensity forecast skill due to uncertainties in the best track data is discussed.

著者

Kosuke Ito

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.247-252, 2016 (Released:2016-09-16)

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

14 19

---

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo - Typhoon Center are systematically compiled to analyze the long-term behavior of errors and to explore the potential for improvement in the forecast accuracy using a statistical correction approach. In this study, a dataset is constructed from annual statistics and every single forecast listed on annual reports on the activities of the RSMC Tokyo. This study found that (1) the accuracy of annual mean forecast has not improved over 26 years and that (2) forecast errors tend to be larger in the rapidly developing TCs. Further analysis reveals that recent forecast output (2008-2014) contains biases associated with the magnitude of the vertical shear of horizontal wind, convective available potential energy, upper ocean temperature, maximum potential intensity (MPI) and ocean coupling potential intensity (OC_PI). To evaluate the adverse effect of such biases in the current forecast system, a simple statistical correction is applied. It improved TC intensity forecast by 7.8-16.9% when an OC_PI is employed.

著者

Shion Sekizawa Tsubasa Kohyama

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-021, (Released:2022-05-26)

被引用文献数

13

---

On January 15, 2022, the volcano Hunga Tonga about 8000-km away from Japan explosively erupted. Following the eruption, tsunami-like sea-level fluctuations were observed in Japan, much earlier than expected based on the oceanic long-wave propagation from Tonga. By contrast, atmospheric pressure disturbance presumably due to the eruption was also observed about 30 minutes before the sea-level change. Therefore, the observed sea-level fluctuations can be considered as meteotsunamis forced by the pressure perturbation rather than tectonically forced by the eruption, but the mechanism is not yet fully understood. This study attempts to understand the nature of this meteotsunami by using a simple one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results show that the time and amplitude of the observed sea-level changes are consistent with the simulated sea-level changes forced by the atmospheric forcing. A set of experiments with different bathymetry profiles also reveals the importance of amplification due to near-Proudman resonance over deep basins and the shoaling effect over the continental slope, while extremely deep and narrow topography such as trenches is of second-order importance.

著者

Shion Sekizawa Takafumi Miyasaka Hisashi Nakamura Akihiko Shimpo Kazuto Takemura Shuhei Maeda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.15A-005, (Released:2019-05-22)

被引用文献数

34

---

During a torrential rainfall event in early July 2018, profound enhancement of moisture influx from the south and its convergence occurred over western Japan, which is investigated in this study on the basis of objective analysis and forecast data from the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model. The heavy rainfall over western Japan is found to accompany enhanced oceanic evaporation extensively around Japan, especially around the Kuroshio and entirely over the Sea of Japan. Linear decompositions of the anomalous moisture flux and surface latent heat flux anomalies applied to the high-resolution data reveals that the intensified speed of the low-level southerlies was the primary factor for the pronounced enhancement of both the moisture transport into the heavy rainfall region, especially in its western portion, and evaporation around the Kuroshio into the southerlies. An additional contribution is found from positive sea-surface temperature anomalies to the enhanced southerly moisture inflow into the eastern portion of the rainfall region. These findings have been confirmed through a backward trajectory analysis, which suggests that anomalous moisture supply to air parcels into the rainfall region primarily through the enhanced wind-forced evaporation roughly corresponds to about 10% of the precipitable water anomaly over western Japan.

著者

Ger Anne W. Duran Joseph Q. Basconcillo

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.33-41, 2023 (Released:2023-02-22)

参考文献数

32

被引用文献数

1

---

Due to less tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences, the climatology of the quiescent TC season (i.e., March-April-May, MAM) in the western North Pacific (WNP) is less understood when compared to the more active season (i.e., June-November). Here we show observational evidence of significantly decreasing TC quiescence during MAM that can be attributed to more Central Pacific El Niño events from 2002 to 2022. A Central Pacific El Niño is related to an asymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) pattern where warm (cool) SST anomalies are concentrated in the central (western) Pacific, which consequently contributes to the overall decrease in TC quiescence in MAM. Such anomalous SST pattern prompts the western North Pacific Subtropical High to expand westward, creating a conducive large-scale environment for TC development and allowing TCs to move closer to the landmass, which ultimately leads to an increasing cost of TC-associated damages during the quiescent season. Our study provides new insights into the decreasing TC quiescence and TC climatology in the WNP during MAM, which is ultimately expected to contribute to disaster risk reduction in the region.

著者

Ryuho Kataoka Stephen D. Winn Emile Touber

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.116-121, 2022 (Released:2022-06-11)

参考文献数

8

被引用文献数

3

---

Large-amplitude meteotsunamis were observed in many areas in Japan, following the arrival of barometric Lamb waves emitted by an underwater volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai in January 2022. We modeled the power spectra of the tidal level data obtained from 12 tide stations of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, based on a method of transfer function which converts the barometric pressure pulse spectra into the meteotsunami spectra. The obtained transfer functions are similar at 12 stations. The pressure pulse spectra are obtained from the ensemble average of ∼1500 Soratena weather sensors of Weathernews Inc. distributed over Japan. The observed meteotsunami spectra can be characterized by the enhanced seiche eigenmodes at each station excited by the mesoscale pressure pulse within the amplitude error of 50%, which contributes for accumulating the necessary knowledge to understand the potential dangers in various different areas over Japan.

著者

Tetsuya Kawano Rina Yasukiyo Ryuichi Kawamura Takashi Mochizuki

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-014, (Released:2023-05-10)

---

Downscaling simulations of MIROC6 (the sixth version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to investigate future changes in the Japan Sea polar airmass convergence zones (JPCZs) related to heavy snowfall events in the Sea of Japan–side region of central and northern Japan. WRF downscaling simulations showed a northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in precipitation distribution. Rainfall increased significantly over the central part of the Sea of Japan and in the Tohoku region. On the other hand, snowfall decreased significantly over the entire Sea of Japan. However, there was a significant increase in snowfall in the inland mountainous areas of the Tohoku region. Jet streaks shift northward in the future climate, which was confirmed in the MIROC6 data. Reflecting such future environments, WRF downscaling simulations showed that a mesoscale cyclonic circulation anomaly passing over Hokkaido from the Sea of Japan, which is not resolved by MIROC6, contributes to the northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in rainfall and snowfall.

著者

Shion Sekizawa Tsubasa Kohyama

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.129-134, 2022 (Released:2022-06-21)

参考文献数

13

被引用文献数

13

---

On 15 January 2022, the volcano Hunga Tonga about 8000-km away from Japan explosively erupted. Following the eruption, tsunami-like sea-level fluctuations were observed in Japan, much earlier than expected based on the oceanic long-wave propagation from Tonga. By contrast, atmospheric pressure disturbance presumably due to the eruption was also observed about 30 minutes before the sea-level change. Therefore, the observed sea-level fluctuations can be considered as meteotsunamis forced by the pressure perturbation rather than tectonically forced by the eruption, but the mechanism is not yet fully understood. This study attempts to understand the nature of this meteotsunami by using a simple one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results show that the time and amplitude of the observed sea-level changes are consistent with the simulated sea-level changes forced by the atmospheric forcing. A set of experiments with different bathymetry profiles also reveals the importance of amplification due to near-Proudman resonance over deep basins and the shoaling effect over the continental slope, while extremely deep and narrow topography such as trenches is of second-order importance.

著者

Kentaro Araki Teruyuki Kato Yasutaka Hirockawa Wataru Mashiko

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.8-15, 2021 (Released:2021-01-29)

参考文献数

48

被引用文献数

33

---

This study investigated characteristics of atmospheric environmental fields in the occurrence of quasi-stationary convective bands (QSCBs) in Kyushu, western Japan during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event. We performed case studies of extreme rainfall subevents in the Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures on 3-4 July (2020KK) and northern Kyushu on 6-7 July 2020 (2020NK), compared with two heavy rainfall events in northern Kyushu in 2017 and 2018.Nine QSCBs were objectively extracted during the July 2020 heavy rainfall event, causing hourly precipitation amounts exceeding 100 mm twenty times. In 2020KK, the environmental field with extremely large precipitable water due to low-level and middle-level humidity was affected by the upper-level cold airflow, which resulted in favorable condition for the deep convection development. Consequently, the lightning activity became high, and cloud tops were the highest in comparison to previous events. QSCBs in 2020KK and 2020NK were located along a low-level convergence line/zone associated with an inflow that had extremely large water vapor flux on the south side of the mesoscale Baiu frontal depressions. In most of the QSCB cases in 2020, mesoscale depressions were observed and enhanced horizontal winds, which led to extremely large low-level water vapor flux to produce short-term heavy rainfall.

著者

Tetsuya Takemi Takashi Unuma

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15A, pp.60-65, 2019 (Released:2019-09-19)

参考文献数

32

被引用文献数

25

---

This study documented the environmental properties of precipitation systems that produced the July 2018 Heavy Rainfall event in Japan. The gridded analysis data were used to diagnose the potential for the development of convective systems in terms of thermodynamic environmental indices. Precipitable water vapor was extremely larger than that seen in the climatology of warm-season quasi-stationary convective clusters (QSCCs). Such an extreme moisture content was realized by very humid conditions at the middle-levels. In contrast, temperature lapse rate in a convectively unstable layer was not so significant in comparison to the QSCC climatology. Among the environmental indices, K Index was shown to describe the potential for the rainfall development. Based on the analysis, the roles of moisture content and profile on the convection development were discussed. It was suggested that the middle-level high humidity contributes to the occurrence of the present heavy rainfall by minimizing negative effects of environmental mixing and by decreasing vertical displacements to reach levels of free convection. In regions where heavy rainfall occurred, an automated algorithm detected the development of QSCCs, which were mostly categorized as a linear type.

著者

Yusuke Goto Naoki Sato

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-002, (Released:2021-12-21)

---

The horizontal movement vectors of the maximum rainfall area associated with local heavy rainfall around Tokyo in the afternoon of high-temperature summer days were analyzed using a numerical algorithm in order to investigate their relationship to the wind vectors in the free atmosphere. First, the movement vectors were objectively identified every 10 minutes from radar echo intensity data, and their time average from the onset to the termination of a heavy rainfall event was calculated. The results show that the maximum areas of localized heavy rainfall around Tokyo most frequently move to the east-southeast and southeast. Moreover, the direction of movement is shifted to the right relative to the mean direction of the free atmospheric winds in most cases. It is also implied that water vapor supply from the south in the boundary layer plays a role in the rightward movement.

著者

Ger Anne W. Duran Joseph Q. Basconcillo

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-005, (Released:2023-01-20)

被引用文献数

1

---

Due to less tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences, the climatology of the quiescent TC season (i.e., March-April-May, MAM) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is less understood when compared to the more active season (i.e., June-November). Here we show observational evidence of significantly decreasing TC quiescence during MAM that can be attributed to more Central Pacific El Niño events from 2002 to 2022. A Central Pacific El Niño is related to an asymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) pattern where warm (cool) SST anomalies are concentrated in the central (western) Pacific, which consequently contributes to the overall decrease in TC quiescence in MAM. Such anomalous SST pattern prompts the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to expand westward, creating a conducive large-scale environment for TC development and allowing TCs to move closer to the landmass, which ultimately leads to an increasing cost of TC-associated damages during the quiescent season. Our study provides new insights into the decreasing TC quiescence and TC climatology in the WNP during MAM, which is ultimately expected to contribute to disaster risk reduction in the region.

著者

Seiji Yukimoto Kunihiko Kodera Rémi Thiéblemont

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.13, pp.53-58, 2017 (Released:2017-04-04)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

8

---

A delayed response of the winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) to the 11-year solar cycle has been observed and modeled in recent studies. However, the mechanisms creating this 2-4-year delay to the solar cycle have still not been well-understood. This study examines the effects of the 11-year solar cycle and the resulting modulation in the strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex. A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model is used to simulate these effects by introducing a mechanistic forcing in the stratosphere. The intensified stratospheric polar vortex is shown to induce positive and negative ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean. The positive ocean temperature anomaly migrated northward and was amplified when it approached an oceanic frontal zone approximately 3 years after the forcing became maximum. This delayed ocean response is similar to that observed. The result of this study supports a previous hypothesis that suggests that the 11-year solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface are produced through a downward penetration of the changes in the stratospheric circulation. Furthermore, the spatial structure of the signal is modulated by its interaction with the ocean circulation.

著者

Tetsuya Takemi Toshiya Yoshida Shota Yamasaki Kentaro Hase

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.22-27, 2019 (Released:2019-02-06)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

25

---

An intense tropical cyclone, Typhoon Jebi (2018), landed the central part of Japan and caused severe damages. Quantitative assessment of strong winds in urban districts under typhoon conditions is important to understand the underlying risks. As a preliminary study, we investigate the influences of densely built urban environments on the occurrence of wind gusts in an urban district of Osaka City during Typhoon Jebi by merging mesoscale meteorological and building-resolving large-eddy simulations (LES). With the successful reproduction of the track and intensity of the typhoon in meteorological simulations, the simulated winds at the boundary-layer top of the LES model are used to quantitatively estimate the wind gusts in the urban district. The maximum wind gust in the analysis area of Osaka was estimated as 60-70 m s−1, which is comparable to the wind speed at the height of about 300 m.

著者

Udai Shimada Munehiko Yamaguchi Shuuji Nishimura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.1-5, 2020 (Released:2020-01-28)

参考文献数

42

被引用文献数

6 8

---

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) best track data indicate that the number of rapid intensification (RI) tropical cyclone events in the western North Pacific increased from 1987 to 2018. To clarify whether this increase is due to climatological changes or qualitative changes in the data, the long-term trend of RI events in JMA operational Dvorak data, which have been used as the first guess for best track analysis, was investigated. Because the JMA Dvorak analysis procedure has remained almost unchanged since 1987, the temporal homogeneity of the Dvorak data is expected to be much better than that of the best track data. The results showed no discernable trend in Dvorak-based RI events over the 32 years. Although the frequency distribution of 24-h intensity changes changed slightly in the Dvorak analysis, that of the best track data changed significantly; as a result, the frequency of best track-based RI events increased after 2006. JMA started using microwave satellite imagery for best track analysis in 2006. This change likely affected the temporal homogeneity of the best track data. These results suggest that the increase in best track-based RI events was due mainly to qualitative changes related to advances in observational techniques.

著者

Keita Fujiwara Ryuichi Kawamura

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-029, (Released:2022-07-25)

被引用文献数

2

---

This study investigated a recent tendency of interannual precipitation variations during the Baiu season (June–July) in southern Kyushu, Japan. Long-term satellite precipitation observations revealed a significant amplification of the interannual variability of Baiu precipitation after the beginning of this century and the appearance of a quasi-quadrennial variation (QQV). Composite analyses with respect to the unstable regime of Baiu activity when the QQV prevailed suggested a possible link between the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) mode and the QQV. Regression analyses with an IPOC index showed the dominance of an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere centered over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea and enhanced poleward moisture transport along its western periphery. The interdecadal shift in remote IPOC influence seen around the year 2000 featured the westward (northward) extension of the low-level anomalous anticyclone toward the Bay of Bengal (southern Japan); consequently, the significant moisture flux convergence area covered southern Kyushu during the unstable Baiu regime, consistent with the QQV appearance during the same period. It is also inferred that the IPOC mode modulation may come from the increased impact of central Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the IPOC in recent decades.

著者

Akira Kuwano-Yoshida

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.199-203, 2014 (Released:2014-12-06)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

9 18

---

The “Local deepening rate (LDR)”, the local surface pressure tendency, which is normalized by the sine of latitude and similar to the definition of an explosive cyclone, is introduced to extratropical cyclone activity analysis. The LDR has the advantage of being much simpler than conventional methods such as cyclone tracking and time filtering. The time average of positive LDR, which implies cyclone deepening, captures not only individual explosive cyclone's deepening but also the mid-latitude storm track climatology. The probability of explosive deepening, defined as LDR ≥ 1 hPa h-1 and based on ensemble forecasts, accurately represents the deepening potential and provides information regarding the influence area of storms—analogous to the strong wind area used in typhoon forecasts. The LDR can also be used to assess the quality of storm tracks in reanalyses products. In the 20th century reanalysis, the storm track activity, calculated from ensemble mean surface pressure, is too weak before 1910 in the North Pacific, and in the South Pacific low activity is observed up to the end of the 20th century, because of large ensemble spread due to few surface pressure observations.