著者
SAITO Kazuo KUNII Masaru ARAKI Kentaro
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-027, (Released:2018-02-11)
被引用文献数
4

Local heavy rainfall of about 100 mm h-1 occurred in Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture on 26 August 2011. This rain was brought by a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed near a stationary front that slowly moved southward. In an analysis using geostationary multi-purpose satellite rapid scan images and dense automated weather station networks, development of the MCS occurred after the merging of sea breezes from the east (Kashima-nada) and the south (Tokyo Bay). Numerical experiments by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM) with horizontal resolutions of 10 km and 2 km using mesoscale 4D-VAR analysis of JMA for initial conditions tended to predict the position of intense rainfall areas west of observed positions. In the mesoscale ensemble forecast using perturbations from JMA’s one-week global ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecast, some ensemble members showed enhanced precipitation around Tokyo, but false precipitation areas appeared north of the Kanto and Hokuriku Districts. As an attempt to improve the model forecast, we modified the model, reducing the lower limit of subgrid deviation of water vapor condensation to diagnose the cloudiness for radiation. In the modified model simulation, surface temperatures around Tokyo increased by about 1°C and the position of the intense precipitation was improved, but the false precipitation areas in the Hokuriku District were also enhanced in the ensemble member which brought a better forecast than the control run. We also conducted ensemble prediction using a singular vector method based on NHM. One of the ensemble members unstabilized the lower atmosphere on the windward side of the Kanto District and suppressed the false precipitation in the Hokuriku District, and observed characteristics of the local heavy rainfall were well reproduced by NHM with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. A conceptual model of the initiation of deep convection by the formation of a low-level convergence zone succeeding merging of the two sea breezes from the east and south is proposed based on observations, previous studies, and numerical simulation results. In this event, the northerly ambient wind played an important role on the occurrence of the local heavy rainfall around Tokyo by suppressing the northward intrusion of the sea breeze from the south.
著者
DUC Le SAITO Kazuo HOTTA Daisuke
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2020-022, (Released:2020-01-16)

In the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), an ensemble transform matrix (ETM) is a matrix that maps background perturbations to analysis perturbations. All valid ETMs are shown to be the square roots of the analysis error covariance in ensemble space that preserve the analysis ensemble mean. ETKF chooses the positive symmetric square root Ts as its ETM, which is justified by the fact that Ts is the closest matrix to the identity I in the sense of the Frobenius norm. Besides this minimum norm property, Ts are observed to have the diagonally predominant property (DPP), i.e. the diagonal terms are at least an order of magnitude larger than the off-diagonal terms. To explain the DPP, firstly the minimum norm property has been proved. Although ETKF relies on this property to choose its ETM, this property has never been proved in the data assimilation literature. The extension of this proof to the scalar multiple of I reveals that Ts is a sum of a diagonal matrix D and a full matrix P whose Frobenius norms are proportional, respectively, to the mean and the standard deviation of the spectrum of Ts. In general cases, these norms are not much different but the fact that the number of non-zero elements of P is the square of ensemble size while that of D is the ensemble size causes the large difference in the orders of elements of P and D. However, the DPP is only an empirical fact and not an inherently mathematical property of Ts. There exist certain spectra of Ts that break the DPP but such spectra are rarely observed in practice since their occurrences require an unrealistic situation where background errors are larger than observation errors by at least two orders of magnitude in all modes in observation space.
著者
FUKUI Shin IWASAKI Toshiki SAITO Kazuo SEKO Hiromu KUNII Masaru
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-056, (Released:2018-09-14)
被引用文献数
1

The feasibility of regional reanalysis assimilating only conventional observations was investigated as an alternative to dynamical downscaling to estimate the past three-dimensional high-resolution atmospheric fields with long-term homogeneity over about 60 years. The two types of widely applied dynamical downscaling approaches have problems. One with a serial long-term time-integration often fails to reproduce synoptic-scale systems and precipitation patterns. The other with frequent reinitializations underestimates precipitation due to insufficient spin-up. To address these problems maintaining long-term homogeneity, we proposed the regional reanalysis assimilating only the conventional observations. We examined it paying special attention to summer precipitation, through one-month experiment before conducting a long-term reanalysis. The system is designed to assimilate surface pressure and radiosonde upper-air observations, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). It covers Japan and its surrounding area with a 5-km grid spacing and East Asia with a 25-km grid spacing, applying one-way double nesting in the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55). The regional reanalysis overcomes the problems with both types of dynamical downscaling approaches. It reproduces actual synoptic-scale systems and precipitation patterns better. It also realistically describes spatial variability and precipitation intensity. The 5-km grid spacing regional reanalysis reproduces frequency of heavy precipitation and describes anomalous local fields affected by topography such as circulations and solar radiation better than the coarser reanalyses. We optimized the NHM-LETKF for long-term reanalysis by sensitivity experiments. The lateral boundary perturbations derived from an empirical orthogonal function analysis of JRA-55 brings stable analysis, saving computational costs. The ensemble size of at least 30 is needed because further reduction significantly degrades the analysis. The deterministic run from non-perturbed analysis is adopted as first guess in LETKF, instead of the ensemble mean of perturbed runs, enabling reasonable simulation of spatial variability in the atmosphere and precipitation intensity.