著者

Long Trinh-Tuan Jun Matsumoto Fredolin T. Tangang Liew Juneng Faye Cruz Gemma Narisma Jerasorn Santisirisomboon Tan Phan-Van Dodo Gunawan Edvin Aldrian Thanh Ngo-Duc

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15, pp.1-6, 2019 (Released:2019-01-19)

参考文献数

38

被引用文献数

7 24

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The Quantile Mapping (QM) bias correction (BC) technique was applied for the first time to address biases in the simulated precipitation over Vietnam from the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) driven by five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) products. The QM process was implemented for the period 1986-2005, and subsequently applied to the mid-future period 2046-2065 under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Comparison with the original model outputs during the independent validation period shows a large bias reduction from 45% to 3% over Vietnam and significant improvements in representing precipitation indices (PI) after applying the QM technique. Moreover, the ensemble average of the BC products generally performed better than an individual BC member in capturing the spatial distribution of the PIs. A drier condition with a longer rainfall break, and shorter consecutive rainfall events are anticipated over Northern and Central Vietnam during their respective wet seasons in the mid-future. Furthermore, this study showed that the QM method minimally modified the future changes in PIs over most of Vietnam; thus, these corrected projections could be used in climate impacts and adaptation studies.

著者

Ha Pham-Thanh Thanh Ngo-Duc Jun Matsumoto Tan Phan-Van Hoa Vo-Van

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.169-174, 2020 (Released:2020-09-17)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

9

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This study investigated rainfall trends and their associations with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the period of 1979-2019, using TC best-track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo - Typhoon Center and daily rainfall data from 138 meteorological stations in Vietnam. The radius of influence of TCs on local rainfall was limited to 500 km from TC centers. The average annual number of TCs affecting Vietnam has decreased slightly in the last two decades compared to previous decades. The ratio of TC-induced rainfall to total rainfall attained the highest value of 37.3% in the central region, in July. The temporal distribution of TC-induced rainfall coincided with the frequency of TCs, with an active period from June to November. During 1979-2019, the non-TC rainfall was the main contributor to the change in total rainfall, especially in relation to the decline in the north and the increase in the coastal South Central region. The rainfall trend during the entire period was principally explained by the interdecadal shift in the late 1990s. Rainfall intensity and the number of heavy rainfall days were intensified for total rainfall and non-TC rainfall, indicating that TCs contributed minimally to the changes of extreme rainfall events during 1979-2019.

著者

Ha Pham-Thanh Thanh Ngo-Duc Jun Matsumoto Tan Phan-Van Hoa Vo-Van

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-029, (Released:2020-08-11)

被引用文献数

9

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This study investigated rainfall trends and their associations with tropical cyclones (TCs) during the period of 1979-2019, using TC best-track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo - Typhoon Center and daily rainfall data from 138 meteorological stations in Vietnam. The radius of influence of TCs on local rainfall was limited to 500 km from TC centers. The average annual number of TCs affecting Vietnam has decreased slightly in the last two decades compared to previous decades. The ratio of TC-induced rainfall to total rainfall attained the highest value of 37.3% in the central region, in July. The temporal distribution of TC-induced rainfall coincided with the frequency of TCs, with an active period from June to November. During 1979-2019, the non-TC rainfall was the main contributor to the change in total rainfall, especially in relation to the decline in the north and the increase in the coastal South Central region. The rainfall trend during the entire period was principally explained by the interdecadal shift in the late 1990s. Rainfall intensity and the number of heavy rainfall days were intensified for total rainfall and non-TC rainfall, indicating that TCs contributed minimally to the changes of extreme rainfall events during 1979-2019.