- 著者
- TOCHIMOTO Eigo YOKOTA Sho NIINO Hiroshi YANASE Wataru
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2022-007, (Released:2021-10-06)
- 被引用文献数
- 1
Ensemble forecasts with 101 members (including one ensemble mean) using ensemble Kalman filter analysis were performed to understand the atmospheric conditions favorable for the development of a meso-β-scale vortex (MBV) that caused shipwrecks as a result of sudden gusty winds in the southwestern part of the Sea of Japan on 1 September 2015. A composite analysis was performed to reveal differences in the structure of the MBV and atmospheric conditions around the MBV between the strongest eight (STRG) and weakest ten (WEAK) ensemble members, where two of the strongest ten members that developed the MBV much earlier than the other members were excluded from the analysis. The analysis shows that near-surface cyclonic horizontal shear to the northeast and the south of the MBV was stronger for STRG than for WEAK. In addition, larger low-level water vapor and its horizontal flux for STRG contribute to greater convective available potential energy to the southeast of the MBV, resulting in stronger convection around the MBV. The results of the composite analysis are also statistically supported by an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis. Differences in near-surface horizontal shear were closely related to the structure of the extratropical cyclone in which the MBV was embedded. Although the strength of the extratropical cyclone for STRG was comparable with that for WEAK, the cyclonic horizontal shear of winds in the northeastern quadrant of the extratropical cyclone was greater for STRG than for WEAK.
- 著者
- YANASE Wataru ARAKI Kentaro WADA Akiyoshi SHIMADA Udai HAYASHI Masahiro HORINOUCHI Takeshi
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2022-041, (Released:2022-06-30)
- 被引用文献数
- 6
Torrential rain in Typhoon Hagibis caused a devastating disaster in Japan in October 2019. The precipitation was concentrated in the northern half of Hagibis during extratropical transition (ET). To elucidate the mechanisms of this asymmetric precipitation, synoptic- and meso-scale processes were analyzed mainly using the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model. The present study demonstrates that the asymmetric processes were different depending on the ET stages. When Hagibis was close to the baroclinic zone at middle latitudes around 12 October (the frontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northeastern part of Hagibis was attributed to warm frontogenesis and a quasi-geostrophic ascent, as reported in many previous studies. In contrast, when Hagibis was moderately distant from the baroclinic zone around 11 October (the prefrontal stage), heavy precipitation in the northern part occurred in slantwise northward ascending motion in the outer region. This slantwise motion developed in a region with strong westerly vertical shear, which was enhanced between Hagibis and a westerly jet stream. Based on the analyses of potential vorticity and absolute angular momentum, this region was characterized by reduced moist symmetric stability in the lower and middle troposphere accompanied by inertial instability in the upper troposphere and conditional instability in the lower troposphere. These results provide additional insights into the time evolution of asymmetric processes during ET in the absence of a distinct upper-tropospheric trough, particularly the slantwise motion in the prefrontal stage.