著者

Yuka Kanamori Masaru Inatsu Ryoichi Tsurumaki Naoki Matsuoka Tsuyoshi Hoshino Tomohito J. Yamada

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.249-253, 2022 (Released:2022-11-26)

参考文献数

23

被引用文献数

1

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A set of hydrological experiments for a flooding event on 11 September 2014 at Motsukisamu River in Sapporo were performed. Dynamical downscaling to 5-km resolution of a large-ensemble global simulation allowed us to estimate that a 99%-tile hourly precipitation in Sapporo would increase by 70% in a future climate, when the global-mean temperature increases by 4 K compared with the present climate. After developing a three-tank model of which parameters were optimized on the basis of the in-situ observation at the Motsukisamu River during the event period, the model was forced by hypothetical hyetographs of the event that would occur under the future climate. The results of this experiment suggested that the peak flow rate would increase by 75%. However, it was also revealed that an upstream aqueduct tunnel, just completed in autumn 2021, would effectively reduce the peak flow rate and mitigate the flooding risk even in extreme precipitation under the future climate.

著者

Yuka Kanamori Masaru Inatsu Ryoichi Tsurumaki Naoki Matsuoka Tsuyoshi Hoshino Tomohito J. Yamada

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-040, (Released:2022-11-11)

被引用文献数

1

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A set of hydrological experiments for a flooding event on September 11, 2014 at Motsukisamu River in Sapporo were performed. Dynamical downscaling to 5-km resolution of a large-ensemble global simulation allowed us to estimate that a 99%-tile hourly precipitation in Sapporo would increase by 70% in a future climate, when the global-mean temperature increases by 4 K compared with the present climate. After developing a three-tank model of which parameters were optimized on the basis of the in-situ observation at the Motsukisamu River during the event period, the model was forced by hypothetical hyetographs of the event that would occur under the future climate. The results of this experiment suggested that the peak flow rate would increase by 75%. However, it was also revealed that an upstream aqueduct tunnel, just completed in autumn 2021, would effectively reduce the peak flow rate and mitigate the flooding risk even in extreme precipitation under the future climate.