著者

松浦 光吉

出版者

ロシア・東欧学会

雑誌

ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2016, no.45, pp.170-183, 2016 (Released:2018-06-02)

参考文献数

25

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Since 1992 Poland has enjoyed positive GDP growth for 25 years, including 2009 which was a harsh year due to the global recession. It is also forecasted that its good development will further continue for several coming years. Some economic analysts attribute the important role of EU funds (grants from the EU) and foreign direct investments (FDI) for the successful GDP growth. The GDP ratio of foreign capital is 3.2% and 4.8% for EU funds and for FDI respectively, which is a relatively high ratio totaling 8% of the Polish economy. 20% of EU funds are allocated to Poland, and this makes it the top beneficiary. The inflow of FDI is also the top among Central and Eastern European Countries (11 countries).Despite its long period of successful economic growth, it seems that an economic level (represented by GDP per capita) has not converged with the EU average and has been stagnant in recent years. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that arguments for the Middle-Income Trap in the Polish economy are gradually increasing. That is whether Poland faces the Middle-Income Trap or is already in it.What is the background of the Middle-Income Trap? Here we look at not only the positive side of foreign capital but the negative side as well. The positive side is its function as a powerful engine to drive the Polish economy. The negative side is an unwanted effect causing an excessive dependence on foreign capital, which constrains or at the very least, deteriorates self-sustainable growth, resulting in stagnation of future growth. In order to keep competitiveness needed for continuing growth and to avoid the Middle-Income Trap, it is essential to reform the industrial structure from labor-intensive to capital/knowledge-intensive industry through successive innovation.On February 16, 2016 Polish authorities released the Action plan for responsible development of Poland. It is a remarkable plan, because it officially acknowledged five development traps (The Middle-Income Trap, Lack of balance trap, Average product trap, Demographic trap, and Weak institutions trap), which Poland currently faces. Before the publication of this plan, Polish authorities often appealed for EU funds or FDI, and claimed the acquisition as their diplomatic or political achievement without any mention of possible traps.On June 23, 2016, it was decided that the UK would withdraw from the EU through a referendum, known as Brexit. As the UK’s economic size is the second largest in the EU, there is concern about continued political and economic turbulence for at least a couple of years. And the withdrawal of the UK from the EU will cause a reduction in the EU budget including EU funds, which will be an external shock on Polish economic growth.This paper focuses on the background and development of economic growth and the Middle-Income Trap in Poland.