著者

金野 雄五

出版者

ロシア・東欧学会

雑誌

ロシア・東欧研究 (ISSN:13486497)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2006, no.35, pp.72-83, 2006 (Released:2010-05-31)

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The aim of this paper is to examine the current status and future prospects of the regional economic integration among CIS countries.Firstly, the institutional framework of FTA and customs union among CIS countries is reviewed. Several plurilateral agreements towards establishing FTA and customs union were signed by CIS countries, but almost all of them have not been realized. On the other hand, a web of bilateral free trade agreements among CIS members is in effect. These agreements stipulate duty-free trade regime in all goods, while allow for some exemptions. Currently, such exceptional goods are very few in trade among 5 members of EvrAsES (Eurasian Economic Community) excluding Uzbekistan (i.e. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), though some NTB (nontariff barriers) remain. Concerning customs union, Russia and Belarus seemed to have succeeded in unifying tariff rates against the third countries in the latter half of 1990's, but some retreats are observed recently.Secondly, we examined two kinds of indices which represent the characteristics of intra-bloc trade. One is TII (Trade Intensity Index) and the other is HDLR (Horizontal Division of Labor Rate) Index. The results are following. Very high TII were observed with intra-CIS trade in 1996 and 2005, but the indices decreased during the period. In contrast, TII with EU and China were not so high, but increased. HDLR indices show the same trends. In many cases, the HDLR indices were higher in intra-CIS trade than in trade with non-CIS countries, but both of the indices decreased in the past decade. These trends of TII and HDLR seem to indicate the efforts toward CIS economic integration have had little effects on the flow of intra-CIS trade.Thirdly, we foresee the future prospects of CIS economic integration in relation to the process of entering WTO (World Trade Organization) . In that process, CIS countries are required to abolish all of the existing NTB, which will also contribute to the progress of FTA in the region. As for a customs union, the influence will be adverse. To sum up, it may be safe to foresee that the CIS economic integration will remain at the stage of FTA for several years in future.