著者

宇山 智彦

出版者

一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会

雑誌

国際政治 (ISSN:04542215)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.2020, no.201, pp.201_98-201_113, 2020-09-15 (Released:2022-03-31)

参考文献数

63

---

There is a paradox in Central Asian politics of the late Soviet period: Independence movements were feeble and political elites were basically loyal to Moscow, but the leaders of the republics swiftly decided to declare independence during the fall of the Soviet Union. While contemporary observers underlined nationalism shared not only by activists of national movements but also by leaders of the republican communist parties, it was hardly a major concern for the latter. Research on the Brezhnev era shows that political elites in Central Asia gained limited but significant autonomy during that period, but this fact alone cannot explain the process of independence. This study reexamines the relationships between the national question and politics in the Central Asian republics, especially the impacts of the four major conflicts: the Almaty events of 1986, the Ferghana events of 1989, the Dushanbe events and the Osh events of 1990. We argue that these events triggered or accelerated the transformation of politics in the republics, adding elements of mass politics to Brezhnevite boss politics in narrow elite circles and creating the republics’ own political arenas. The emergence of these arenas did not mean a growing orientation toward independence per se, but the violent suppression of demonstrations and riots, combined with repercussions of defamatory campaigns against nationalism in the early period of perestroika, which made the relationships between Moscow and Central Asia uneasy, gave centrifugal force to these arenas.At the same time, these events had varied influence on the standing of political leaders and on intra-elite cohesion and cleavages. In Kazakhstan, Gennadii Kolbin, whose appointment caused the Almaty events, had no other choice than to cooperate with Kazakh elites, who remained cohesive and subsequently supported the next leader, Nursultan Nazarbaev. In Uzbekistan, the Ferghana events facilitated the ascent of Islam Karimov, who later concentrated power in his own hands on the pretext of keeping the relative post-conflict stability. In Kyrgyzstan, the Osh events discredited Absamat Masaliev and created the opportunity for the academician Askar Akaev to become president, but it also deepened intra-elite cleavages and paved the way for the perpetuation of “pluralism by default.” In Tajikistan, Qahhor Mahkamov remaining in power despite his mishandling of the Dushanbe events seriously deepened intra-elite cleavages that later developed into a civil war. Thus, the national question and conflicts during perestroika preconditioned diverse power relations in the post-Soviet Central Asian states. At the same time, the experience of conflict strengthened the political leaders’ desire to restore order and boss politics, now without Moscow’s tutelage, leading to an inclination toward authoritarianism.