We have developed a simulation model to estimate the residential energy end-use in Japan. In this model, residential energy consumption is simulated taking into account the variety of the residents, housing insulation, and climate condition. With the use of this model, we estimated the domestic residential energy consumption of Japan in 2025, considering replacement of housing stock. For this purpose, we have improved the "Stock model of housing insulation efficiency", that is able to estimate the distribution of building's insulation levels considering replacement of housing stock. By using the stock model, the effectiveness of measures related to housing insulation is also evaluated.