3 0 0 0 OA <翻訳>中国のサービス業統計及びその問題点について
- 著者
- 李 潔
- 出版者
- 埼玉大学経済学会
- 雑誌
- 社会科学論集 (ISSN:05597056)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- no.139, pp.197-214, 2013-06
1.はじめに2.SNAに勧告される持ち家住宅サービスの推計2-1 GDPに持ち家住宅サービスの計上について2-2 帰属家賃に関する2つの推計方法3.日本における帰属家賃の推計3-1 平成12年基準改訂前の推計3-2 平成12年基準改訂後の推計3-3 推計方法変更前後の帰属家賃の比較4.中国における持ち家住宅サービスに関する推計4-1 SNA導入初期の推計4-2 第1回経済センサス後の推計5.GDP統計からの日中比較5-1 供給側GDPからの日中比較5-2 需要側GDPからの日中比較6.おわりにImputation is a unique concept important in national accounts, and also a controversial one. For owner-occupied dwellings, the rent charged to accounts is considered to be paid just like in the case of rental dwellings. This way of recording is called imputed rents, and it is the largest imputation for GDP. Imputed rent is recorded on both sides of the output of the real estate, on the production side, and the household final consumption expenditure on the expenditure side.When the Japan 2000 standard was revised in 2005, the ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan) reviewed the estimation methods on imputed rents. Due to this revision to 59.64 trillion yen (about 12.2% of GDP) from 69.15 trillion yen (about 14% of GDP), Japan's value-added real estate in 2003 at current prices has been revised down about 16%.Almost at the same time, after the 1st China economic census was conducted in 2004, the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics, Government of China) also reviewed the estimation methods on imputed rents. Due to this revision to 617.3 billion yuan (about 4.5% of GDP) from 237.8 billion yuan (about 2% of GDP, 3.33 trillion yen in the exchange rate), China's value-added real estate in 2003 has been revised upward 2.6 times.Most of output real estate is a service related to dwelling, including owner-occupied dwellings. China's population is about 10 times that of Japan. Japan's value-added real estate before the revision is about 20 times that of China. This means that on a per capita basis, Japan's valueadded real estate is 200 times that of China. These statistics had been presented by the Government of Japan and China by 2005. However, there was also a time when China's GDP statistics was suggested to have been overestimated by academia and media around the world.This paper describes the historical background and the estimation methods of imputed rents in Japan and China. The paper also makes a detailed comparison of the two countries for the relevant statistics. The comparison shows the possibility that China's imputed rents had been seriously underestimated by 2005, and compared to Japan are still being underestimated now.In this paper, the authors speculates that the NBS will introduce the market rent approach for the estimation of owner-occupied dwellings, such as in Japan, instead of the cost approach that has been used so far, after the 3rd economic census for 2013. Along with this, China's GDP will be further revised upward.
1 0 0 0 OA 中国GDP統計に関する現状と課題 ―日本との比較―
国際基準SNAによって定義されるGDP統計は作成国の既存統計に全面的に依存し、各国が異なる推計方法を確立しているのが現状である。本研究は日中両国のSNAの導入経緯や統計制度、既存統計の相違を整理し、GDP統計の作成方法を考察した。また、帰属家賃の推計方法や実際の統計値を考察し、持ち家率が8割以上の今日でも中国の推計方法は本質的に変更していないことを問題点として提起した。さらに中国実質GDP推計に主に使用されるシングルデフレーション法のバイアスの問題について独自の考察を行った。本研究は中国を含め、発展途上国及びMPS体系からSNA体系への移行国のGDP統計の解明に一助になることを期待したい。