- 著者
- 松本 涼佑
- 出版者
- 日本交通学会
- 雑誌
- 交通学研究 (ISSN:03873137)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.63, pp.71-78, 2020 (Released:2021-04-12)
- 参考文献数
- 11
普通列車グリーン車の価格は、グリーン車自体の需要を左右することに加えて、同じ列車に併結される普通車両の需要にも影響を及ぼすと考えられる。そのため特に混雑が問題視される平日朝の通勤において、グリーン車価格の変化が需要に与える影響は重要な研究テーマである。そこでグリーン車の価格が営業キロ51kmを境に210円変化する2段階の価格体系に着目し、Regression discontinuity designを適用することによって、平日朝の通勤におけるグリーン車需要の価格弾力性を推定した。分析の結果、価格弾力性は有意に1を超え、価格感応度は高いことが分かった。適正な価格設定は、本価格弾力性の推定値、および現状の普通車両とグリーン車の混雑度を基に、慎重に検討される必要がある。
- 著者
- 松本 涼佑 奥田 大樹 深澤 紀子
- 出版者
- 一般社団法人 電気学会
- 雑誌
- 電気学会論文誌D(産業応用部門誌) (ISSN:09136339)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.140, no.10, pp.769-781, 2020
<p>A train schedule in Japan includes regular trains which is fixed on annual basis and pre-planned extra trains whose operation dates are not predetermined. Accordingly, in order to provide efficient transport services, a plan for the daily operation of extra trains must be established based on accurate passenger demand fluctuations forecasts by day/time. Therefore, we developed a method to forecast for the demand fluctuation by day/time on a certain day in the future. The method was developed by combining several fundamental waves, which are extracted by applying independent component analysis to actual ridership records with calendar information, and information on events which was held in target areas. We confirmed that the method has high accuracy by verifying its reproducibility and forecasting accuracy. In addition, the extra trains' operation planning system, which implements the forecasting method, can estimate the load factor of all trains between stations on the planning schedule based on the forecasted demand fluctuations. Then, the system can suggest an optimal extra trains' operation plan based on these values. We estimated the load factor based on forecasted demand fluctuations with the system, and we verified its accuracy. As a result, we confirmed that we can estimate the load factor with high accuracy.</p>