著者

財津 亘 渋谷 友祐 長谷川 直宏

出版者

日本法科学技術学会

雑誌

日本法科学技術学会誌 (ISSN:18801323)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.13, no.1, pp.83-92, 2008 (Released:2008-04-19)

参考文献数

28

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Offender profiling is one of the tools of decision making for criminal investigation. It is a set of techniques to infer characteristics of an unknown offender, such as sex, age bracket, lifestyle, psychological feature, previous crime, inhabited area, from the information which is left at the crime scene.   In this article, we proposed a tool of decision-making for criminal investigation from the perspective of prediction of an uncertain event by the use of a Bayesian Network (BN). BN is a probability model that describes causal structure of events as chain networks of conditional probability, and is capable to predict the possibility of uncertain events.   To examine the validity of the constructed model, firstly, we divided previous offenders’ information of the indoor-sex-offence cases into a training data (9,859 cases) and validation data (50 cases). Secondly, we constructed a model from the training data by means of K2 and MDL (minimum description length) as search-algorithm and information criteria, respectively. Finally, the validity of the model was examined by the validation data as virtual cases.   According to the model, 21 target variables (16 behavioral variables, 2 vehicle variables and 3 victim variables) linked the explanatory variable (employment) directly, and most of these variables related to the employment. The results of the model validity showed that the accuracy of predicting the employment increased 10% higher when the age bracket could be estimated from the testimony of the victim.   The results indicated that the BN model of the offender profiling would be able to provide valuable information for decision making for crime investigation. To predict characteristics of an unknown offender more accurately, it is crucial to select more appropriate information criteria and develop the search-algorithm, as well as to construct the database from more accurate information.

著者

長谷川 直宏

出版者

日本社会心理学会

雑誌

社会心理学研究 (ISSN:09161503)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.21, no.1, pp.44-52, 2005

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the influences of cultural-self-construal on self-presentation to significant-others that belong to the participants' ingroup (miuchi) or outgroup (soto). In the pilot study, 54 undergraduates and graduate students described self-images that they wanted to present to significant-others, and 19 desirable self-images were extracted. Two hundred and twenty-four undergraduate students were then included in the present survey. In terms of results, two implications were induced. First, participants who had inter-dependent-self-construal changed the presentation of their self-images than those who had independent self-construal. This result is congruent with the theory of the cultural construal of self. Second, the data show the tendency of self-depreciation to their self-images independent to the cultural-self-construals. However, the tendency is more remarkable among the people who had inter-dependent-self-construal. The discussion considered the effects of cultural-self-construal on self-presentation.