著者

伊藤 耕介 Chun-Chieh Wu Kelvin T. F. Chan Ralf Toumi Chris Davis

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.98, no.1, pp.5-17, 2020 (Released:2020-03-26)

参考文献数

46

被引用文献数

1 13

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台風の移動の基礎的な理解はかなり成熟しているが、注目に値する研究の進展が近年も見られる。本論文では、単純化された順圧モデル・精緻な物理モデル・データ解析によって、主に2014年以降に得られた台風の移動に関する新しい概念や既存の概念に関する新たな知見を集約する。これには、台風の移動に関する環境場と台風の相互作用、および、予測可能性の研究を含んでいる。指向流・βジャイア・非断熱加熱といった従来の概念は依然として重要であるが、台風の進路を説明するメカニズムをより正確に理解することは、さらなる進路予報の精度向上に向けて、重要な基礎をなすであろう。

著者

Chung-Chuan YANG Chun-Chieh WU Kevin K. W. CHEUNG

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-009, (Released:2017-12-15)

被引用文献数

1

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The steering flow analysis based on potential vorticity (PV) diagnosis is used to examine the reasons why the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) model showed large track forecast errors with over-recurving movement in Typhoon Fengshen (2008). In particular, two forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC 19 and 20 June 2008 are demonstrated in this study. The deep-layer-mean (DLM) steering flow between 925 and 300 hPa with tropical cyclone components filtered out is directed to the west or northwest in the analysis field, which can account for the continuous westward and northwestward movement in the best track. However, the DLM steering flow is shown more toward the north in the forecast fields. Four distinct PV features associated with the corresponding subtropical high, monsoon trough, continental high, and midlatitude trough are identified to diagnose their balanced steering flows around the storm. The result based on PV analysis indicates that the reduced westward steering flow in the forecast field is mainly attributed to the subtropical high which is over-predicted to extend southwestward, as well as the continental high with underestimated coverage, as characterized by the geopotential height at 500 hPa. The steering flow associated with the monsoon trough plays an essential role while Typhoon Fengshen (2008) experiences northward recurvature in both analysis and forecast fields. Therefore the associated reduced westward steering flow in the NCEP-GFS model leads to the over-recurvature of Fengshen.