著者

Kozo Okamoto Hiromi Owada Tadashi Fujita Masahiro Kazumori Michiko Otsuka Hiromu Seko Yoshifumi Ota Naotaka Uekiyo Hiroshi Ishimoto Masahiro Hayashi Haruma Ishida Akiyoshi Ando Masaya Takahashi Kotaro Bessho Hironobu Yokota

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.162-168, 2020 (Released:2020-09-05)

参考文献数

21

被引用文献数

14

---

To discuss the feasibility of the Himawari follow-on program, impacts of a hyperspectral sounder on a geostationary satellite (GeoHSS) is assessed using an observing system simulation experiment. Hypothetical GeoHSS observations are simulated by using an accurate reanalysis dataset for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan in 2018. The global data assimilation experiment demonstrates that the assimilation of clear-sky radiances of the GeoHSS improves the forecasts of the representative meteorological field and slightly reduces the typhoon position error. The regional data assimilation experiment shows that assimilating temperature and relative humidity profiles derived from the GeoHSS improves the heavy rainfall in the Chugoku region of western Japan as a result of enhanced southwesterly moisture flow off the northwestern coast of the Kyushu Island. These results suggest that the GeoHSS provides valuable information on frequently available vertically resolved temperature and humidity and thus improves the forecasts of severe events.

著者

Munehiko Yamaguchi Hiromi Owada Udai Shimada Masahiro Sawada Takeshi Iriguchi Kate D. Musgrave Mark DeMaria

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.138-143, 2018 (Released:2018-10-06)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

1 14

---

This study investigates prediction of TC intensity in the western North Pacific basin using a statistical-dynamical model called the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), with data sources in operations at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) such as the JMA/Global Spectral Model forecast fields. In addition to predicting the change in the maximum wind (Vmax) as in the original SHIPS technique, another version of SHIPS for predicting the change in the minimum sea-level pressure (Pmin) has been developed. With 13 years of training samples, a total of 26 predictors were selected from among 52 through stepwise regression. Based on three years of independent samples, the root mean square errors of both Vmax and Pmin by the 26-predictor SHIPS model were found to be much smaller than those of the JMA/GSM and a simple climatology and persistence intensity model, which JMA official intensity forecasts are currently mainly based on. The prediction accuracy was not sensitive to the number of predictors as long as the leading predictors were included. Benefits of operationalizing SHIPS include a reduction in the errors of the JMA official intensity forecasts and an extension of their forecast length beyond the current 3 days (e.g., 5 days).

著者

Kozo Okamoto Hiromi Owada Tadashi Fujita Masahiro Kazumori Michiko Otsuka Hiromu Seko Yoshifumi Ota Naotaka Uekiyo Hiroshi Ishimoto Masahiro Hayashi Haruma Ishida Akiyoshi Ando Masaya Takahashi Kotaro Bessho Hironobu Yokota

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-028, (Released:2020-07-10)

被引用文献数

14

---

To discuss the feasibility of the Himawari follow-on program, impacts of a hyperspectral sounder on a geostationary satellite (GeoHSS) is assessed using an observing system simulation experiment. Hypothetical GeoHSS observations are simulated by using an accurate reanalysis dataset for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan in 2018. The global data assimilation experiment demonstrates that the assimilation of clear-sky radiances of the GeoHSS improves the forecasts of the representative meteorological field and slightly reduces the typhoon position error. The regional data assimilation experiment shows that assimilating temperature and relative humidity profiles derived from the GeoHSS improves the heavy rainfall in the Chugoku region of western Japan as a result of enhanced southwesterly moisture flow off the northwestern coast of the Kyushu Island. These results suggest that the GeoHSS provides valuable information on frequently available vertically resolved temperature and humidity and thus improves the forecasts of severe events.