著者

Takuto Sato Hiroyuki Kusaka Hideitsu Hino

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.104-108, 2020 (Released:2020-06-26)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

10

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This study reveals the best combination of meteorological variables for the prediction of the number of emergency transport due to heat stroke over 64 years old in Tokyo metropolis based on a generalized linear model using 2008-2016 data. Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were used as candidates of the explanatory variables. The variable selection with Akaike's information criterion (AIC) showed that all the four meteorological elements were selected for the prediction model. Additional analysis showed that the combination of daily mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, and total solar radiation as explanatory variables gives the best prediction, with approximately 19% less error than the conventional single-variable model which only uses the daily mean temperature. Finally, we quantitatively estimated the relative contribution of each variable to the prediction of the daily number of heat stroke patients using standardized partial regression coefficients. The result reveals that temperature is the largest contributor. Solar radiation is second, with approximately 20% of the temperature effect. Relative humidity and wind speed make relatively small contributions, each contributing approximately 10% and 9% of the temperature, respectively. This result provides helpful information to propose more sophisticated thermal indices to predict heat stroke risk.

著者

Takuto Sato Hiroyuki Kusaka

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.165-172, 2023 (Released:2023-08-11)

参考文献数

18

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In this study, synthetic inflow turbulence generation methods developed in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and meteorological fields were applied to thermally driven convective boundary layer (CBL) simulations. Methods developed in the CFD field include the Reynolds stress Cholesky decomposition and digital filter-based method (DF method), and the cell perturbation method (CPM) is a method developed in the meteorological field. Intercomparison results show that both methods can reproduce turbulence in thermally driven CBLs when a proper driver region is ensured. The turbulence reproduced using the DF method in a thermally driven CBL has a shorter driver region than that reproduced using CPM. However, CPM can be applied to a simulation without limiting the inflow boundary, although it requires a longer driver region than the DF method. Therefore, it was confirmed that both methods have unique merits that can be useful for downscaling from meteorological mesoscale models to microscale large-eddy simulation models.

著者

Takuto Sato Hiroyuki Kusaka Hideitsu Hino

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-018, (Released:2020-05-20)

被引用文献数

10

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This study reveals the best combination of meteorological variables for the prediction of the number of emergency transport due to heat stroke over 64 years old in Tokyo metropolis based on a generalized linear model using 2008-2016 data. Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were used as candidates of the explanatory variables. The variable selection with Akaike's information criterion (AIC) showed that all the four meteorological elements were selected for the prediction model. Additional analysis showed that the combination of daily mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, and total solar radiation as explanatory variables gives the best prediction, with approximately 19% less error than the conventional single-variable model which only uses the daily mean temperature. Finally, we quantitatively estimated the relative contribution of each variable to the prediction of the daily number of heat stroke patients using standardized partial regression coefficients. The result reveals that temperature is the largest contributor. Solar radiation is second, with approximately 20% of the temperature effect. Relative humidity and wind speed make relatively small contributions, each contributing approximately 10% and 9% of the temperature, respectively. This result provides helpful information to propose more sophisticated thermal indices to predict heat stroke risk.