著者
UEDA Hiroaki MIWA Kana KAMAE Youichi
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
巻号頁・発行日
pp.2018-044, (Released:2018-05-14)
被引用文献数
2

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and coherent sea surface temperate (SST) anomaly in the Indian Ocean (IO) is investigated with a particular focus on the decaying phase of El Niño. The TC anomalies are obtained from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). This dataset is based on 100-member ensemble simulations for the period of 1951-2010 by use of the state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SST as well as the historical radiative forcing. AGCM utilized in the d4PDF is the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model with about 60km horizontal resolution. Our analysis reveals a prolonged decrease in TC frequency over the tropical western Pacific during the post El Niño years until the boreal fall. Dominance of anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the western Pacific induced by the delayed warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is the main factor for the suppressed TC activity rather than the local SST change. In contrast, the TC number over the South China Sea tends to increase during the post-El Niño fall (September to November). The physical reason can be ascribed to the weakening of AAC associated with the termination of IO warming. Thus we demonstrate that the effect of the IO warming should be taken into account when the ENSO is considered as an environmental factor for predicting TC activity.
著者
Ueda Hiroaki
出版者
筑波大学出版会
巻号頁・発行日
pp.1-264, 2014-03
著者
Kawase Hiroaki Yoshikane Takao Hara Masayuki Kimura Fujio Yasunari Tetsuzo Ailikun Borjiginte Ueda Hiroaki Inoue Tomoshige
出版者
American Geophysical Union
雑誌
Journal of geophysical research: Atmospheres (ISSN:2169897X)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.114, pp.D24110, 2009-12
被引用文献数
87 24

Changes in the Baiu rainband owing to global warming are assessed by the pseudo global warming downscaling method (PGW-DS). The PGW-DS is similar to the conventional dynamical downscaling method using a regional climate model (RCM), but the boundary conditions of the RCM are obtained by adding the difference between the future and present climates simulated by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) into the 6-hourly reanalysis data in a control period. We conducted the multiple PGW-DS runs using the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set, giving better performance around East Asia in June, and the PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM model ensemble mean (PGW-MME run). The PGW-MME and PGW-DS runs show an increase in precipitation over the Baiu rainband and the southward shift of the Baiu rainband. The PGW-MME run has good similarity to the average of all PGW-DS runs. This fact indicates that an average of the multiple PGW-DS runs can be replaced by a single PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM ensemble mean, reducing the significant computational expense. In comparison with the GCM projections, the PGW-DS runs reduce the intermodel variability in the Baiu rainband caused by the CGCMs themselves.