著者

YAMAZAKI Akira HONDA Meiji KAWASE Hiroaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-012, (Released:2018-11-16)

被引用文献数

13

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This study found that regional snowfall distributions in a Japan-Sea side area of Japan are controlled by intraseasonal jet variability, particularly the 10-day-timescale quasi-stationary Rossby waves across the Eurasian continent and the atmospheric blocking over the East Asian region. This study mainly focused on the Niigata area, which is representative of heavy snowfall areas in Japan. Based on previous studies, three types of dominant snowfall distributions were defined: 1) the plain (P) type, which is characterized by heavy snowfall events predominant in coastal regions of the Niigata area, 2) the mountain (M) type, which occurs in the mountainous regions, and 3) the PM type, which occurs across the whole Niigata area. Our results revealed that all distribution types were related to the south-ward shift of the westerly jet over Japan associated with an intensified trough, i.e., cyclonic anomalies, originating from quasi-stationary Rossby waves along westerly jets over Eurasia (Eurasian jets). The cyclonic anomalies were found to be also related to blocking cyclones because the frequency of blocking events considerably increased in the East Siberian region. The mechanisms leading to the trough intensification were different among the events of the three snowfall types. The formation of Siberian blocking with relatively different positions and different paths of quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet propagation along Eurasian jets were evident in the distribution types. Therefore, local-scale snowfall distributions in the Japan-Sea side area are determined by anomalous large-scale circulations, which can be evidently distinguished in the global reanalysis data.

著者

ITO Rui AOYAGI Toshinori HORI Naoto OH'IZUMI Mitsuo KAWASE Hiroaki DAIRAKU Koji SEINO Naoko SASAKI Hidetaka

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-053, (Released:2018-08-24)

被引用文献数

7

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Accurate simulation of urban snow accumulation/melting processes is important to provide reliable information about climate change in snowy urban areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates a square prism urban canopy (SPUC) model within their regional model to simulate urban atmosphere. However, presently, this model takes no account of snow processes. Therefore, in this study, we enhanced the SPUC by introducing a snowpack scheme, and the simulated snow over Japanese urban areas was assessed by comparing the snow depths from the enhanced SPUC and from a simple biosphere (iSiB) model with the observations. Snowpack schemes based on two approaches were implemented. The diagnostic approach (sSPUCdgn) uses empirical factors for snow temperature and melting/freezing amounts and the Penman equation for heat fluxes, whereas the prognostic approach (sSPUCprg) calculates snow temperatures using heat fluxes estimated from bulk equations. Both snowpack schemes enabled the model to accurately reproduce the seasonal variations and peaks in snow depth, but it is necessary to use sSPUCprg if we wish to consider the physical processes in the snow layer. Compared with iSiB, sSPUCprg resulted in a good performance for the seasonal variations in snow depth, and the error fell to 20 %. While iSiB overestimated the snow depth, a cold bias of over 1°C appeared in the daily mean temperature, which can be attributed to excessive decreases in the snow surface temperature. sSPUCprg reduces the bias by a different calculation method for the snow surface temperature and by the inclusion of heated building walls without snow; consequently, the simulated snow depth is improved. sSPUCprg generated a relationship between the seasonal variations in snowfall and snow depth close to the observed relationship, with the correlation coefficient getting large. Therefore, the simulation accuracy of snowfall becomes more crucial for simulating the surface snow processes precisely by the enhanced SPUC.

著者

WATANABE Shun-ichi I. MURATA Akihiko SASAKI Hidetaka KAWASE Hiroaki NOSAKA Masaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-045, (Released:2019-04-15)

被引用文献数

9

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This study evaluates possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation over Japan under a future warmer climate using an ensemble projection generated by a non-hydrostatic regional climate model with a resolution of 5 km (NHRCM05) under the RCP8.5 scenario. NHRCM05 reproduces TC precipitation and TC intensity more accurately than does a general circulation model with a resolution of 20 km. The number of TCs approaching Japan is projected to decrease under the future climate, while the TC precipitation rate increases. As these two effects cancel each other out, total TC precipitation, and the frequency of the moderate TC precipitation that is usual under the present climate, show no significant change. On the other hand, the frequency of extreme TC precipitation increases significantly because the intensification in the TC precipitation rate outweighs the reduction in TC frequency. The increase in the TC precipitation rate is caused primarily by the increase in water vapor around the TCs, which in turn results from the change in environmental water vapor. The intensification and structural changes to TCs also contribute to the enhanced TC precipitation.

著者

KAWASE Hiroaki SASAI Takahiro YAMAZAKI Takeshi ITO Rui DAIRAKU Koji SUGIMOTO Shiori SASAKI Hidetaka MURATA Akihiko NOSAKA Masaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2018-022, (Released:2018-01-30)

被引用文献数

26

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Geographical distributions of heavy snowfall, especially in the Pacific Ocean side of Japan, have not been elucidated due to low occurrence frequency of heavy snowfall and limited number of snow observation points. This study investigates the characteristics of synoptic conditions for heavy daily snowfall from western to northeastern Japan in the present climate, analyzing high-resolution regional climate ensemble experiments with 5-km grid spacing. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the 10-ensemble members of the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) historical experiments are applied to the lateral boundary conditions of the regional climate model. Dynamical downscaling using d4PDF (d4PDF-DS) enables us to evaluate much heavier snowfall events than those simulated by dynamical downscaling using JRA-55 (JRA55-DS). Over the Sea of Japan side, heavy snowfall occurs due to cold air outbreaks, while over the Pacific Ocean side, heavy snowfall is brought by extratropical cyclones passing along the Pacific Ocean coast. A comparison between JRA55-DS and d4PDF-DS indicates that heavier snowfall can occur due to more developed extratropical cyclones and enhanced cold air damming in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The geographical distributions of extremely heavy snowfall are different between two typical synoptic conditions, i.e., cold air outbreaks and extratropical cyclones. The difference is much clearer in the extremely heavy snowfall events than in all snowfall events. Heavy daily snowfall occurs in January and February on the Pacific Ocean side, in December and January on the Sea of Japan side, and in November and March in high mountainous areas. Saturated water vapor pressure is largest around 0 ℃ under the snowing conditions. Synoptic conditions from late fall to winter are closely related to preferable conditions for heavy snowfall over the mountainous areas where the surface air temperature is much less than 0 ℃ in the heavy snowfall events.

著者

MURATA Akihiko WATANABE I. Shun-ichi SASAKI Hidetaka KAWASE Hiroaki NOSAKA Masaya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2019-035, (Released:2019-02-04)

被引用文献数

6

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A novel method for detecting tropical cyclones in high-resolution climate model simulations is proposed herein and subjected to examination. The proposed method utilizes a two-dimensional scatterplot based on two quantities that represent the radial gradient and the tangential asymmetry of mid-to upper-level thickness around a simulated vortex. A comparison between the modeled and observed tropical cyclones using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 20-km grid spacing under reanalysis-driven boundary conditions for one year revealed that no cyclones were missed and there was only one false alarm over a part of the western North Pacific near Japan. The simulated vortices were classified into two categories; tropical cyclones and extratropical cyclones. These two groups, having specific features, were also found in the results using present-day climate datasets, indicating that the tropical cyclones were reasonably distinguished from extratropical cyclones although a one-by-one comparison could not, in principle, be conducted. Comparison of the results obtained from datasets with 5-km and 20-km grid spacing demonstrated that the detection scheme was only weakly dependent on the horizontal resolution. This dependence was further reduced by using the radial gradient over the outer radii instead of near the center of the vortex. The resolution-independent feature in this method is due to a procedure in which the tangential asymmetry of mid-to upper-level thickness is utilized instead of the relative vorticity at 850 hPa, often used in conventional schemes. This procedure allows the method to identify tropical cyclones without the need to determine a grid-dependent threshold. The method proposed here provides a useful tool for detecting tropical cyclones in high-resolution climate simulations.

著者

Kawase Hiroaki Yoshikane Takao Hara Masayuki Kimura Fujio Yasunari Tetsuzo Ailikun Borjiginte Ueda Hiroaki Inoue Tomoshige

出版者

American Geophysical Union

雑誌

Journal of geophysical research: Atmospheres (ISSN:2169897X)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.114, pp.D24110, 2009-12

被引用文献数

130 24

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Changes in the Baiu rainband owing to global warming are assessed by the pseudo global warming downscaling method (PGW-DS). The PGW-DS is similar to the conventional dynamical downscaling method using a regional climate model (RCM), but the boundary conditions of the RCM are obtained by adding the difference between the future and present climates simulated by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) into the 6-hourly reanalysis data in a control period. We conducted the multiple PGW-DS runs using the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set, giving better performance around East Asia in June, and the PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM model ensemble mean (PGW-MME run). The PGW-MME and PGW-DS runs show an increase in precipitation over the Baiu rainband and the southward shift of the Baiu rainband. The PGW-MME run has good similarity to the average of all PGW-DS runs. This fact indicates that an average of the multiple PGW-DS runs can be replaced by a single PGW-DS run using the multiselected CGCM ensemble mean, reducing the significant computational expense. In comparison with the GCM projections, the PGW-DS runs reduce the intermodel variability in the Baiu rainband caused by the CGCMs themselves.