文献一覧: Yoshio Kawatani (著者)

3 0 0 0 OA Storylines of projected climate changes around Japan associated with upper troposphere and stratosphere responses

著者: Yoshio Kawatani Takeshi Horinouchi Naoki Sato
出版者: 公益社団法人日本気象学会
雑誌: SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日: pp.2022-020, (Released:2022-05-19)
被引用文献数: 1

Climate changes around Japan associated with upper troposphere and stratosphere responses of global warming during December-January-February were investigated using the storyline approach and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. Climate change was calculated by subtracting the 1959-1990 mean in historical simulations from the 2068-2099 mean in the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Four storylines in plausible future climates were discussed by considering two remote indices representing tropical amplification (tropical upper tropospheric temperature changes) and stratospheric vortex strength. Stratosphere-troposphere connections in terms of zonal wind responses are most pronounced in the storyline of high tropical amplification with strong stratospheric vortex in which the subtropical jet shifts substantially northward. The multimodel mean displays more (less) precipitation in the northern (southern) parts of Japan, while the storyline of high (low) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex shows increasing (decreasing) precipitation in most parts of Japan. Projected precipitation changes around Japan depend heavily on the storyline adopted and the degree of global warming in these two storylines. Alternatively, precipitation changes depend mostly on the overall strength of global warming with minor influences from storylines in the case of low (high) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex.

2022-05-28 23:00:49
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2 0 0 0 OA Bimodal Distribution of Precipitation Found in the Multimodel Climate Prediction over Central Japan in Winter

著者: Naoki Sato Takeshi Horinouchi Yoshio Kawatani
出版者: 公益社団法人日本気象学会
雑誌: SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日: vol.19, pp.78-85, 2023 (Released:2023-05-16)
参考文献数: 24

Large-scale trends related to the precipitation in central Japan were investigated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 projections, surface temperature over central Japan increases by 1 to 4 K during the 21st century in most models. Focusing on the trend of surface-air temperature and precipitation in central Japan, these models were categorized into two groups: The precipitation significantly increases in 11 models (group A). On the other hand, the trends of precipitation are small in the remaining 20 models (group B). Analyses of high-frequency components based on daily data revealed that the difference in the precipitation prediction is associated with that in the storm activity around Japan. Relatively enhanced meridional surface-air temperature gradient in the subpolar region may contribute to reinforced storm activity. On the other hand, the zonal surface pressure gradient associated with the Siberian high and the Aleutian low is not strengthened in group A. The climatological wintertime monsoon does not appear to contribute to the difference of precipitation trend in central Japan between the two groups. Moreover, the influence of any other planetary-scale variations is not implied.

2023-05-30 22:10:08
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2 0 0 0 OA Storylines of Projected Climate Changes around Japan Associated with Upper Troposphere and Stratosphere Responses

著者: Yoshio Kawatani Takeshi Horinouchi Naoki Sato
出版者: 公益社団法人日本気象学会
雑誌: SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日: vol.18, pp.122-128, 2022 (Released:2022-06-16)
参考文献数: 11
被引用文献数: 1

2022-07-07 23:00:46
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