- 著者
- Hiroshi Yatsuya Hiroyasu Iso Yuanying Li Kazumasa Yamagishi Yoshihiro Kokubo Isao Saito Norie Sawada Manami Inoue Shoichiro Tsugane
- 出版者
- 日本循環器学会
- 雑誌
- Circulation Journal (ISSN:13469843)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.CJ-16-0081, (Released:2016-04-15)
- 参考文献数
- 41
- 被引用文献数
- 4 36
Background:Global risk assessment for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases helps guide the intensity of behavioral and pharmacological interventions.Methods and Results:The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II (age range: 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994, n=15,672) was used to derive the risk equations for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke incidence via hazard regression. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), and model goodness-of-fit by the Grønnesby-Borgan chi-squared statistic. During a mean of 16.4 years of follow up, 192 incident CAD cases and 552 ischemic stroke cases occurred. Variables selected for the CAD equation were age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and non-HDLC. The same variables, except non-HDLC, were selected for the ischemic stroke equation. The equations discriminated incidence reasonably well (AUC: 0.81 for CAD, 0.78 for ischemic stroke). The AUC of the equation applied externally to Cohort I (n=11,598) was also good: 0.77 and 0.76 for CAD and ischemic stroke, respectively. Risk calculator application and color charts to visualize estimated risk according to the combinations of risk factors were prepared.Conclusions:Risk equations were developed to estimate the 10-year probability of CAD and ischemic stroke in Japanese people, using variables that are routinely obtained.
- 著者
- Hiroshi Yatsuya Kazumasa Yamagishi Yuanying Li Isao Saito Yoshihiro Kokubo Isao Muraki Manami Inoue Shoichiro Tsugane Hiroyasu Iso Norie Sawada
- 出版者
- Japan Epidemiological Association
- 雑誌
- Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.JE20220364, (Released:2023-07-15)
- 参考文献数
- 34
- 被引用文献数
- 1
Background: Associations of major risk factors for stroke with total and each type of stroke as well as subtypes of ischemic stroke and their population attributable fractions had not been examined comprehensively.Methods: Participants of the Japan Public Health Center-based prospective (JPHC) Study Cohort II without histories of cardiovascular disease and cancer (n=14,797) were followed from 1993 through 2012. Associations of current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, overweight (body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDLC) categories, low HDLC (< 40 mg/dL), urine protein, and history of arrhythmia were examined in a mutually-adjusted Cox regression model that included age and sex. Population attributable fraction (PAF) was estimated using the hazard ratios and the prevalence of risk factors among cases.Results: Subjects with hypertension were 1.63 to 1.84 times more likely to develop any type of stroke. Diabetes, low HDLC, current smoking, overweight, urine protein, and arrhythmia were associated with risk of overall and ischemic stroke. Hypertension and urine protein were associated with risk of intracerebral hemorrhage while current smoking, hypertension, and low non-HDLC were associated with subarachnoid hemorrhage. Hypertension alone accounted for more than a quarter of stroke incidence, followed by current smoking and diabetes. High non-HDLC, current smoking, low HDLC, and overweight contributed mostly to large-artery occlusive stroke. Arrhythmia explained 13.2% of embolic stroke. Combined PAFs of all the modifiable risk factors for total, ischemic and large-artery occlusive strokes were 36.7 and 44.5% and 61.5%, respectively.Conclusion: Although there are differences according to the subtypes, hypertension could be regarded as the most crucial target for preventing strokes in Japan.
- 著者
- Mayu Uemura Hiroshi Yatsuya Esayas Haregot Hilawe Yuanying Li Chaochen Wang Chifa Chiang Rei Otsuka Hideaki Toyoshima Koji Tamakoshi Atsuko Aoyama
- 出版者
- Japan Epidemiological Association
- 雑誌
- Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.25, no.5, pp.351-358, 2015-05-05 (Released:2015-05-05)
- 参考文献数
- 23
- 被引用文献数
- 34 49
Background: Skipping breakfast has been suspected as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2DM), but the associations are not entirely consistent across ethnicities or sexes, and the issue has not been adequately addressed in the Japanese population.Methods: We followed 4631 participants (3600 men and 1031 women) in a work-site cohort of participants aged 35–66 years in 2002 through 2011 for T2DM development. Frequency of eating breakfast was self-reported and was subsequently dichotomized to breakfast skippers, who eat breakfast 3–5 times/week or less, and to eaters. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for potential confounding factors, including dietary factors, smoking and other lifestyles, body mass index (BMI), and fasting blood glucose (FBG) at baseline.Results: During 8.9 years of follow-up, 285 T2DM cases (231 men and 54 women) developed. Compared to participants who reported eating breakfast every day, maximally-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of those with the frequency of almost every day and 3–5, 1–2, and 0 days/week were: 1.06 (95% CI, 0.73–1.53), 2.07 (95% CI, 1.20–3.56), 1.37 (95% CI, 0.82–2.29), and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.19–3.76), respectively. In a dichotomized analysis, breakfast skipping was positively associated with T2DM incidence (maximally-adjusted hazard ratio 1.73; 95% CI, 1.24–2.42). The positive associations were found in both men and women, current and non-current smokers, normal weight and overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2), and normal glycemic status and impaired fasting glycemic status (FBG 110 to <126 mg/dL) individuals at baseline (Ps for interaction all >0.05).Conclusions: The present study in middle-aged Japanese men and women suggests that skipping breakfast may increase the risk of T2DM independent of lifestyles and baseline levels of BMI and FBG.
- 著者
- Abubakr Ahmed Abdullah Al-shoaibi Yuanying Li Zean Song Chifa Chiang Yoshihisa Hirakawa KM Saif-Ur-Rahman Masako Shimoda Yoshihisa Nakano Masaaki Matsunaga Atsuko Aoyama Koji Tamakoshi Atsuhiko Ota Hiroshi Yatsuya
- 出版者
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society
- 雑誌
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.63519, (Released:2022-07-13)
- 参考文献数
- 48
- 被引用文献数
- 4
Aims: The associations between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) subtypes are not well established among the Japanese population. This study used longitudinal data from the Aichi Workers' Cohort Study to explore the association between LDL-C levels and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke subtypes. Methods: Pooled data of 8966 adults (7093men and 1903 women) who were recruited between (2002) and (2008) were used for the current analysis. Propensity scores for the LDL-C categories were generated using multinomial logistic regression. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from the inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model for LDL-C category associations with risks of CHD, stroke subtypes, and CVD. Results: During a median follow-up of 12 years, 122 strokes (57 ischemic strokes, 25 intracerebral hemorrhage, and 40 unknown subtypes) and 82 cases of CHD were observed. LDL-C 160- mg/dL compared to LDL-C 100-119 mg/dL was positively and significantly associated with the risk of CHD (HR: 4.56; 95% CI: 1.91-10.9) but not with ischemic stroke (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.44-2.22). LDL-C was inversely associated with the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (P for trend=0.009). Conclusion: In middle-aged Japanese workers, LDL-C was significantly and positively associated with CHD, but not with ischemic stroke. LDL-C was inversely significantly associated with intracerebral hemorrhage.
- 著者
- Yuanying Li Hiroshi Yatsuya Sachiko Tanaka Hiroyasu Iso Akira Okayama Ichiro Tsuji Kiyomi Sakata Yoshihiro Miyamoto Hirotsugu Ueshima Katsuyuki Miura Yoshitaka Murakami Tomonori Okamura
- 出版者
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society
- 雑誌
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.28, no.8, pp.816-825, 2021-08-01 (Released:2021-08-01)
- 参考文献数
- 44
- 被引用文献数
- 2 9
Aims: We aimed to develop and validate risk prediction models to estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: We evaluated a total of 44,869 individuals aged 40–79 years from eight Japanese prospective cohorts to derive coefficients of risk equations using cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models. Discrimination (C-index) of the equation was examined in each cohort and summarised using random-effect meta-analyses. Calibration of the equation was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic. Results: Within a median follow-up of 12.7 years, we observed 765 deaths due to CVD (276 CHDs and 489 strokes). After backward selection, age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), proteinuria, prevalent diabetes mellitus, the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDLC), interaction terms of age by SBP, and age by current smoking were retained as predictors for CHD. Sex was excluded in the stroke equation. We did not consider TC/HDLC as a risk factor for the stroke and CVD equations. The pooled C-indices for CHD, stroke, and CVD were 0.83, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively, and the corresponding p-values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were 0.18, 0.003, and 0.25, respectively. Conclusions: Risk equations in the present study can adequately estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from CHD, stroke, and CVD. Future work will evaluate the system as an education and risk communication tool for primary prevention of CHD and stroke.
- 著者
- Daijiro Suzuki Takanori Suzuki Masayuki Fujino Yumiko Asai Arisa Kojima Hidetoshi Uchida Kazuyoshi Saito Hirofumi Kusuki Yuanying Li Hiroshi Yatsuya Tsuneaki Sadanaga Tadayoshi Hata Tetsushi Yoshikawa
- 出版者
- Fujita Medical Society
- 雑誌
- Fujita Medical Journal (ISSN:21897247)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2023-001, (Released:2023-08-28)
- 参考文献数
- 26
Objectives: The Gunma score is used to predict the severity of Kawasaki disease (KD), including coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) as a cardiac complication, in Japan. Additionally, the characteristic ratio of ventricular repolarization (T-peak to T-end interval to QT interval [Tp-e/QT]) on a surface electrocardiogram reflects myocardial inflammation. This study aimed to determine whether the Tp-e/QT can be used to predict CAA in children with KD.Methods: We analyzed chest surface electrocardiograms of 112 children with KD before receiving intravenous immunoglobulin therapy using available software (QTD; Fukuda Denshi, Tokyo, Japan).Results: The Tp-e/QT (lead V5) was positively correlated with the Gunma score (r=0.352, p<0.001). The Tp-e/QT was larger in patients with CAA (residual CAA at 1 month after onset) than in those without CAA (0.314±0.026 versus 0.253±0.044, p=0.003). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to assess whether the Gunma score and Tp-e/QT could predict subsequent CAA. The area under the curve of the Gunma score was 0.719 with the cutoff set at 5 points. The area under the curve of the Tp-e/QT was 0.892 with a cutoff value of 0.299. The fit of the prediction models to the observed probability was tested by the Hosmer–Lemeshow test with calibration plots using Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) fit. The Gunma score (p=0.95) and Tp-e/QT (p=0.95) showed a good fit.Conclusions: The Tp-e/QT is a useful biomarker in predicting coronary aneurysm complications in KD.
- 著者
- Masaaki Matsunaga Hiroshi Yatsuya Hiroyasu Iso Yuanying Li Kazumasa Yamagishi Naohito Tanabe Yasuhiko Wada Atsuhiko Ota Koji Tamakoshi Akiko Tamakoshi The JACC Study Group
- 出版者
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society
- 雑誌
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.63143, (Released:2021-12-08)
- 参考文献数
- 37
- 被引用文献数
- 10
Aim: We aimed to examine the association of obesity-related cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) with body mass index (BMI) and the estimated population attributable fraction in lean Asians. Methods: We studied 102,535 participants aged 40-79 years without histories of cancer or CVD at baseline between 1988 and 2009. The cause-specific hazard ratios (csHRs) of BMI categories (<18.5, 18.5-20.9, 21.0-22.9 [reference], 23.0-24.9, 25.0-27.4, and ≥ 27.5 kg/m2) were estimated for each endpoint. The events considered were mortalities from obesity-related cancer (esophageal, colorectal, liver, pancreatic, kidney, female breast, and endometrial cancer) and those from CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for these endpoints. Results: During a 19.2-year median follow-up, 2906 died from obesity-related cancer and 4532 died from CVD. The multivariable-adjusted csHRs (95% confidence interval) of higher BMI categories (25-27.4 and ≥ 27.5 kg/m2) for obesity-related cancer mortality were 0.93 (0.78, 1.10) and 1.18 (0.92, 1.50) in men and 1.25 (1.04, 1.50) and 1.48 (1.19, 1.84) in women, respectively. The corresponding csHRs for CVD mortality were 1.27 (1.10, 1.46) and 1.59 (1.30, 1.95) in men and 1.10 (0.95, 1.28) and 1.44 (1.21, 1.72) in women, respectively. The PAF of a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 for obesity-related cancer was −0.2% in men and 6.7% in women and that for CVD was 5.0% in men and 4.5% in women. Conclusion: A BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 is associated with an increased risk of obesity-related cancer in women and CVD in both sexes.
- 著者
- Yuanying Li Hiroshi Yatsuya Sachiko Tanaka Hiroyasu Iso Akira Okayama Ichiro Tsuji Kiyomi Sakata Yoshihiro Miyamoto Hirotsugu Ueshima Katsuyuki Miura Yoshitaka Murakami Tomonori Okamura EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group
- 出版者
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society
- 雑誌
- Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis (ISSN:13403478)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.58958, (Released:2020-10-10)
- 参考文献数
- 44
- 被引用文献数
- 9
Aims: We aimed to develop and validate risk prediction models to estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: We evaluated a total of 44,869 individuals aged 40–79 years from eight Japanese prospective cohorts to derive coefficients of risk equations using cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models. Discrimination (C-index) of the equation was examined in each cohort and summarised using random-effect meta-analyses. Calibration of the equation was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic. Results: Within a median follow-up of 12.7 years, we observed 765 deaths due to CVD (276 CHDs and 489 strokes). After backward selection, age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), proteinuria, prevalent diabetes mellitus, the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDLC), interaction terms of age by SBP, and age by current smoking were retained as predictors for CHD. Sex was excluded in the stroke equation. We did not consider TC/HDLC as a risk factor for the stroke and CVD equations. The pooled C-indices for CHD, stroke, and CVD were 0.83, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively, and the corresponding p-values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were 0.18, 0.003, and 0.25, respectively. Conclusions: Risk equations in the present study can adequately estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from CHD, stroke, and CVD. Future work will evaluate the system as an education and risk communication tool for primary prevention of CHD and stroke.
- 著者
- Hiroshi Yatsuya Yuanying Li Yoshihisa Hirakawa Atsuhiko Ota Masaaki Matsunaga Hilawe Esayas Haregot Chifa Chiang Yan Zhang Koji Tamakoshi Hideaki Toyoshima Atsuko Aoyama
- 出版者
- Japan Epidemiological Association
- 雑誌
- Journal of Epidemiology (ISSN:09175040)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.JE20170048, (Released:2018-03-17)
- 参考文献数
- 36
- 被引用文献数
- 12
Background: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men.Methods: We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study, who were aged 35–64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study’s model.Results: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects.Conclusion: The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.