- 著者
-
国分 良成
- 出版者
- 一般財団法人 日本国際政治学会
- 雑誌
- 国際政治
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.2006, no.145, pp.1-16,L5, 2006
In the wake of the Tiananmen Incident and the end of the Cold War, China essentially changed the nature of its policy of reform and opening. This was an individual decision taken by a single leader, Deng Xiaoping, and it was taken to secure China's stability by means of active participation in the international community as opposed to shying away from it. China conspicuously embarked on a path to economic growth, aiming to achieve a shift to a market economy through the bold introduction of foreign capital, and its subsequent readiness to join the WTO in 2001, implying submission to the international system, indicates the compromises that the establishment was willing to make in order to survive. In this respect, the impact of the Tiananmen Incident and the end of the Cold War can be seen as having determined China's consequent course.<br>However, the plan to promote economic growth, through marketizing the economy amidst expansive globalization, is bound to give rise to grave difficulties in the near future. Disparity between regions, between urban and rural areas and between income groups, social unrest, energy shortages, environmental damage, corruption in government and rampant materialism are only some of the countless contradictions that have been recently exposed, and which may undermine the government. China needs to change in more substantial ways than mere privatization and political reform if it intends to overcome these predicaments.<br>In terms of foreign relations, the US-China relationship has been a stepping-stone for China's flourishing omnidirectional and multilateral diplomacy, coinciding with a fanfare of Chinese government pronouncements about “peaceful development” and the country's “peaceful rise.” Nevertheless, it remains a closed political system, and the lack of transparency in its political decision-making and military affairs is a constant source for concern. Furthermore, Chinese policies abroad are firmly linked with the balance of political power within the top leadership circle at home. Feuding over the transition of power from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao had palpable effects even in foreign affairs.<br>The issues shaping China's domestic policies and foreign relations are increasingly ramified and complicated. What shook the regime during Tiananmen may have been caused by a fraction of the elite and an international “third wave”, but today the elite is beginning to erode at its very own core. When reading Chinese intentions, it is imperative to bear in mind the following facts: that the Chinese Communist Party's ultimate aim is to sustain its political authority; that economic growth is necessary for it to achieve this; and that it finds itself compelled to pursue cooperative relations in today's interdependent, globalized world. This political, economic and diplomatic reciprocity constitutes the terms by which the future of China should be assessed; that is, failure in any one of these areas will compromise China's hold on its structural stability.