著者

松田 映二

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.45, no.2, pp.95-106, 2018 (Released:2019-04-26)

参考文献数

17

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In the 1950s, Chikio Hayashi developed an election prediction model for Japan by using sampling theory and face-to-face surveys. This model is built on the following steps: (1) defining the support rate for each candidate; (2) estimating the ratio of votes garnered by each candidate; (3) using Hayashi’s quantification method type 1 and cor- recting the difference between the value estimated from the third order regression and the ratio of votes; and (4) calculating the winning probability for each candidate by us- ing quantification method type 2 or the margin of error for the estimated ratio of votes. In the 1990s, the telephone replaced the face-to-face survey mode, providing changes to Hayashi’s election prediction model. We discuss the reasons for these improvements.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.29, no.1, pp.81-89, 2002 (Released:2009-04-07)

参考文献数

11

被引用文献数

3 1 2

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The Asahi Shimbun telephone survey made the transition from the list-assisted method to ASAHI-RDD (Random Digit Dialing) method in its survey prior to the Upper House Election in July, 2001. In fact, the Asahi Shimbun had estimated that more seats would be taken by the LDP than the actual results showed in the Upper House election in 1998 and in the Lower House election 2000, where they were without a win. The most probable cause of past failures consists of the non-coverage error since the list-assisted method had serious faults due to the large unlisted population. As RDD promised to give better results, Asahi decided to make use of Random Digit Dialing. While the Asahi method consists of Bank2 and random sampling, it does not use quota sampling. Its bank2-map includes the data, the number of listed-households and the overlap rate of area. A time schedule is created arranging the number of interviewers according to each day of the week. In addition to the problems caused by the current widespread use of mobile phones, there are many other problem areas which we must investigate and make efforts to solve.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

計量国語学会

雑誌

計量国語学 (ISSN:04534611)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.31, no.4, pp.299-314, 2018-03-20 (Released:2019-07-31)

参考文献数

19

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電話調査は,公的な名簿や電話帳を利用して調査対象者を選ぶ方法で始まった.電話帳に番号を掲載しない人を捕捉できなければ,調査ができず調査結果が偏るから,電話番号を乱数発生(RDD)させる方法に移行した.携帯電話番号も対象にして調査をすれば,携帯電話だけ所持する若年,中年層の多くも捕捉できる.ただし,携帯電話への調査は,回収率がとても低く,日本においては番号に地理情報が付加されていないという欠点がある.本稿は,電話法の利用に資する判断材料を提供する.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

日本行動計量学会大会抄録集 46 (ISSN:21897484)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.16-17, 2018-09-03 (Released:2021-05-13)

著者

松田 映二

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.37, no.2, pp.159-188, 2010 (Released:2011-01-22)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

1 3

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The current response rates of mail surveys conducted by Asahi Shimbun are typically above 75 percent. A major contributing factor of these high response rates is the respect that Asahi Shimbun commands. However, the response rates of our face-to-face surveys are about 15 percent lower than those of mail surveys. This paper provides new findings and presents many potential factors influencing mail surveys. Response rates are less affected by the survey topic if we use the same operational details. The response rates of three recent mail surveys are 78% (topic: Trust), 77% (Health), and 79% (Politics). Further, three characteristic curves of cumulative returns are very similar. However, members of the sample who have an interest in the topics respond faster than people who answer surveys as a result of effective follow-ups and incentives. Effective strategies for offering incentives yield higher response rates and lower the effect of topic interest.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

日本行動計量学会

雑誌

行動計量学 (ISSN:03855481)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.35, no.1, pp.17-45, 2008 (Released:2009-04-07)

参考文献数

36

被引用文献数

14 8

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Many mail surveys have been conducted in Japan since the 1950's. Unfortunately, their response rates have been lower than other methods of administration. Various difficulties that result from the lack of an interviewer are major contributing factors of the lower response rates. This paper provides some guidelines regarding the design of mail questionnaires, the timing of the follow-ups, and other operational details. Mail surveys can potentially achieve high response rates. Further, their response rates in rural and urban areas are very similar. In addition, the response rates of mail surveys were found to be unrelated to the educational level of the respondents. A problem of mail surveys is the omission of questions by some respondents. However, there are usually few omitted questions and the overall quality of answers is usually better. The tendency to leave unanswered some branching questions is discussed and suggestions are provided how to decrease it.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

埼玉大学社会調査研究センター

雑誌

政策と調査 (ISSN:2186411X)

巻号頁・発行日

no.17, pp.29-44, 2019

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質問・選択肢を「目で見る」調査で発生する初頭効果は,Krosnick(1991)が提唱した満足化(satisficing)だけでなく,Kahneman(2011)が解説したシステム1(速い思考)の機構でも発現していることを検証する. そのために,力学におけるモーメントの概念を適用した新しい尺度(M 値)を定義する.同時に 7 つの択一質問を選択肢正順と逆順で実験した結果を用いて,学歴が低いほど M 値が高くなる(satisficing が機能している)ことを一般化する.しかし,女性より男性で,主婦より学生で,保守的志向をもつ層でM 値が高くなる新発見は,satisficing では説明できない.一方で,表形式質問における欠損は女性で有意に多い(p < 0.001).これらの事実を基に,回答バイアスにはシステム1 も機能していることを示す.This paper shows that the primacy effect in visual-mode surveys arises not only through “satisficing,” as advanced by Krosnick but also through “system1,” which Kahneman exposited in Thinking, Fast and Slow. These findings were solved using “M value,” defined as a new scale based on moments in dynamics. Comparing the difference between standard order and reverse order for options of seven single-answer questions, it is shown that the lower education the level, the higher the M value (the same occurs with larger satisficing). However, satisficing does not provide a sufficient explanation for why there is a higher M value for males than for females, for students than for full-time homemakers, or conservative types than others. On the other hand, there were significantly more missing options in grid questions (p < 0.001) for females. Based on these findings, we show the relation between response biases and system1.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

埼玉大学社会調査研究センター

雑誌

政策と調査 (ISSN:2186411X)

巻号頁・発行日

no.7, pp.29-39, 2014

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回収率は、調査の質を見極めるための最重要指標である。本稿では、日本の各調査手法による回収率のトレンドを分析し、調査の病状を診断する。面接調査の回収率は、報道機関では低下傾向にあるにもかかわらず、内閣府では回復傾向にあるのは奇妙である。日本ではRDD調査の回収率を正確に計算しないため、調査の質の低下が判明しにくい。しかし、アメリカでは回収率を計算する6つの明確な定義がある。計算式によってアメリカのRDD調査の回収率低下は明確になっている。そのため、RDDに代わる新しい試みが進行している。Response rate (RR) is the most important index for evaluating survey quality. This article analyzes RR trends of different survey methods to figure out their limitations. The RR of face-to-face surveys conducted by Japanese news media continues to decline. However, the RR of the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government indicates recovery as a V-curved line. The difference between the two is unusual. As the RR of telephone surveys conducted in Japan is not calculates accuturately, it is not possible to evaluate the quality of the survey results. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) provides six definitions of RR. Based on these definitions, the RR in random digit dialing (RDD) surveys in the U.S.A shows a rapid decline. Therefore, new experiments are being conducted in the U.S.A. to replace RDD.

著者

松田 映二

出版者

埼玉大学社会調査研究センター

雑誌

政策と調査 (ISSN:2186411X)

巻号頁・発行日

no.8, pp.45-72, 2015

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平成27 年国勢調査では、全世帯に対してオンライン先行方式が適用される。第3 次試験調査では回収率は81.2%で、その内訳はオンライン回収34.0%、郵送回収31.0%、調査員回収16.2%となっている。3 度の試験調査で調査票が変更されたが、未記入や誤記入による不詳率は大きく改善されていない。本稿では、効果があると思われる新たな調査票(松田試案)を提案する。試案作成の際には、①目の動きを少なくする②思考の流れをよくする③少ない説明で直感させる、の3 方針を適用する。調査票を直観的に分かる簡素で親しみやすいレイアウトにすれば、回収率の向上に加えて不詳率も低減できる。The 2015 census in Japan will be conducted using a mixed-mode survey; the first mode is online. The response rate for the third pretest survey was 81.2% (online mode: 34.0%, postal mail mode: 31.0%, and face-to-face mode: 16.2%). However, the improvements made to the questionnaires in each of the three pretests were ultimately unsuccessful in decreasing missing data. This article presents a new questionnaire that we believe will be more effective. The following three objectives were addressed in improving the questionnaire: 1) decreasing eye movement, 2) smoothening the flow of thoughts, and 3) making the questionnaire intuitive. A simple and friendly questionnaire engages respondents' interest, increasing response rate and decreasing the amount of missing data.1.はじめに2.調査方法変更時に検討されるべきこと3.平成22 年(2010 年)国勢調査での調査法変更の影響と課題4.平成27 年(2015 年)国勢調査での方針変更5.新たな調査票レイアウトの提案(松田試案)6.終わりに