著者

西川 寛

出版者

The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan

雑誌

電気学会論文誌. B, 電力・エネルギー部門誌 = The transactions of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. B, A publication of Power and Energy Society (ISSN:03854213)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.127, no.7, pp.827-832, 2007-07-01

被引用文献数

2 2

---

Following the examples of other countries, in April 2005 Japan launched wholesale electric power exchange operations as a primary item of system reform in line with electric liberalization. Only two years have passed since the initiation of these operations. However, in the summer of 2005, the surge in market prices was evident, which suggested that certain measures should be taken to confront potential market risks. Establishing a useful system for forecasting market prices through the modeling of price fluctuations in the wholesale electric market became essential. Currently, various price models are being proposed. Taking both the limited amount of data and the model's purpose into consideration, this study adopted the univariate time series model.<br>We conducted a time series analysis on the open price indexes in the JEPX spot market with the Box-Jenkins method. Since a seven-day cycle can be observed in the data, we adopted the seasonal ARIMA model. In accordance with the procedures of the Box-Jenkins method, we determined the degree of the model's polynomial using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the data and estimated the parameters of the model with the maximum likelihood method. We conducted a forecast on next day JEPX spot market prices with this time series model and examined its validity and utility as a forecasting tool.<br>Price forecasts made with this model require only a small amount of data and will save substantial analysis work. Consequently, this method is expected to be widely used by market participants as the reference data for their bid pricing.

著者

濱西 徹 西川 寛紀 小林 正人 中尾 大成 大萩 晋也 佐々木 秀行 松本 元作 三家 登喜夫 南條 輝志男

出版者

一般社団法人 日本血液学会

雑誌

臨床血液 (ISSN:04851439)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.39, no.1, pp.53-58, 1998 (Released:2009-04-28)

参考文献数

8

被引用文献数

3

---

患者は26歳の男性。平成6年7月再生不良性貧血のため,同種骨髄移植を受けた。経過は順調であったが,平成7年1月腹痛が出現したため,当科入院。腹痛の精査行うも原因不明で,その間に症状は徐々に増強した。入院4日目突然両側視力低下が出現した。翌日には全身に発赤を伴う丘疹が出現し,血液検査では重篤な肝機能障害を呈した。上記の一連の症状が水痘帯状疱疹ウイルスの臓器播種によるものと診断し,アシクロビルの静脈内投与を開始し,上記症状は著しく改善した。皮疹に先立ち急激な腹痛で発症した水痘帯状疱疹ウイルス感染症は稀であるが,高率に臓器播種し致死的で,早期治療が予後を大きく左右する。したがって,骨髄移植後,免疫抑制状態にある患者において,原因不明の激烈な腹痛を認めた場合,水痘帯状疱疹ウイルス感染症を念頭に置き,早期診断に努めることが重要であると考えられた。