- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.17, pp.57-62, 2021 (Released:2021-04-03)
- 参考文献数
- 20
- 被引用文献数
- 1 18
Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.
- 著者
- Ryosuke Shibuya Yukari Takayabu Chie Yokoyama
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.17, pp.251-256, 2021 (Released:2021-12-28)
- 参考文献数
- 26
Atmospheric patterns associated with wide-spread extreme precipitation events during the Baiu season over western Japan have a diversity in the record. Using an objective approach based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this study introduces a classification of atmospheric parameters related to the wide-spread extreme precipitation events which are not directly caused by tropical cyclones. The number of a rain gauge observation stations that record extreme precipitation during the Baiu season over western Japan is equivalently proportional to the scores of the first two Principal Components, implying that there are two orthogonal controlling factors for the occurrence of wide-spread extreme precipitation. The first Principal Component is well correlated with a typical frontal dynamical structure as the enhanced westerly jet, the large gradient of the equivalent potential temperature, and the upper-level Rossby wave train injecting into a cyclonic anomaly at the north of the precipitation area. On the other hand, the second Principal Component is dominated by moisture fields with a low-level cyclone and no upper-level signal. This finding could provide a physical understanding of the diversity of atmospheric patterns causing wide-spread extreme precipitation over western Japan and physical insight into how it will change in the future climate.
- 著者
- Ryosuke Shibuya Yukari Takayabu Chie Yokoyama
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2021-044, (Released:2021-11-16)
Atmospheric patterns associated with wide-spread extreme precipitation events during the Baiu season over western Japan have a diversity in the record. Using an objective approach based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this study introduces a classification of atmospheric parameters related to the wide-spread extreme precipitation events which are not directly caused by tropical cyclones. The number of a rain gauge observation stations that record extreme precipitation during the Baiu season over western Japan is equivalently proportional to the scores of the first two Principal Components, implying that there are two orthogonal controlling factors for the occurrence of wide-spread extreme precipitation. The first Principal Component is well correlated with a typical frontal dynamical structure as the enhanced westerly jet, the large gradient of the equivalent potential temperature, and the upper-level Rossby wave train injecting into a cyclonic anomaly at the north of the precipitation area. On the other hand, the second Principal Component is dominated by moisture fields with a low-level cyclone and no upper-level signal. This finding could provide a physical understanding of the diversity of atmospheric patterns causing wide-spread extreme precipitation over western Japan and physical insight into how it will change in the future climate.
- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2021-009, (Released:2021-02-16)
- 被引用文献数
- 18
Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.