- 著者
- Noriko N. Ishizaki Motoki Nishimori Toshichika Iizumi Hideo Shiogama Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.16, pp.80-85, 2020 (Released:2020-05-13)
- 参考文献数
- 25
- 被引用文献数
- 24
Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan were developed using two distinct methods, namely, the cumulative distribution function-based downscaling method (CDFDM) and Gaussian-type Scaling approach (GSA). We compared spatial distribution, monthly variation, and future trends. The seasonal distribution of bias-corrected data using CDFDM closely followed the original general circulation model (GCM) outputs. GSA overestimated the amount of precipitation by 12-18% in every season because of an unsuitable assumption on the probability distribution. We also examined the contributions of each source of the uncertainty in daily temperature and precipitation indices. For daily temperature indices, GCM selection was the main source of uncertainty in the near future (2026-2050), while different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) resulted in large variability at the end of the 21st century (2076-2100). We found large uncertainty using the bias-correction (BC) methods for daily precipitation indices even in the near future. Our results indicated that BC methods are an important source of uncertainty in climate risk assessments, especially for sectors where precipitation plays a dominant role. An appropriate choice of BC, or use of different BC methods, is encouraged for local mitigation and adaptation planning in addition to the use of different GCMs and RCPs.
- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.17, pp.57-62, 2021 (Released:2021-04-03)
- 参考文献数
- 20
- 被引用文献数
- 1 17
Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.
- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Rui Ito Yukiko Imada Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Nagio Hirota Noriko N. Ishizaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Izuru Takayabu Seita Emori
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.16, pp.75-79, 2020 (Released:2020-05-01)
- 参考文献数
- 22
- 被引用文献数
- 6
The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW.In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.
- 著者
- Yoshiyuki KINOSE Yuji MASUTOMI Fumitaka SHIOTSU Keiichi HAYASHI Daikichi OGAWADA Martin GOMEZ-GARCIA Akiko MATSUMURA Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI Kensuke FUKUSHI
- 出版者
- The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan
- 雑誌
- 農業気象 (ISSN:00218588)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.D-19-00045, (Released:2019-12-19)
- 参考文献数
- 48
- 被引用文献数
- 7 14
In Asia, where rice is a major crop, there is high concern about the detrimental effects of climate change on rice productivity. Evaluating these effects, considering the country-specific cultivars’ responses to climate, is needed to effectively implement the national adaptation plans to maintain food security under climate change. However, to date, information on the effects of climate change on the local rice cultivars used in developing countries is extremely limited. In the present study, we used a process-based crop growth model, MATCRO-Rice, to predict the impact of climate change on yields of the major local rice cultivar Ciherang in Indonesia during the next 25 years (2018-2042). This model simulated the effects of current to future air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on rice yield. A total of 14 future climate scenarios, derived from a combination of four general circulation models and three or four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, were used to consider the uncertainty of the future climate. The results showed that the rice yield was reduced under all climate scenarios, mainly because of the higher air temperature, leading to reduced photosynthetic rates, increased respiration rates, and phenological changes such as acceleration of senescence. The mean yield reduction across the 14 future climate scenarios was 12.1% for all of Indonesia in 2039-2042. Therefore, to maintain yields in Indonesia, rice production needs to adapt to climate change, and especially to higher air temperatures, in the near future.
- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2021-009, (Released:2021-02-16)
- 被引用文献数
- 17
Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.
- 著者
- Hideo Shiogama Rui Ito Yukiko Imada Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Nagio Hirota Noriko N. Ishizaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Izuru Takayabu Seita Emori
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2020-013, (Released:2020-03-30)
- 被引用文献数
- 6
The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW. In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.
- 著者
- Yoshiyuki KINOSE Yuji MASUTOMI Fumitaka SHIOTSU Keiichi HAYASHI Daikichi OGAWADA Martin GOMEZ-GARCIA Akiko MATSUMURA Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI Kensuke FUKUSHI
- 出版者
- The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan
- 雑誌
- 農業気象 (ISSN:00218588)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.76, no.1, pp.19-28, 2020 (Released:2020-01-10)
- 参考文献数
- 48
- 被引用文献数
- 14
In Asia, where rice is a major crop, there is high concern about the detrimental effects of climate change on rice productivity. Evaluating these effects, considering the country-specific cultivars’ responses to climate, is needed to effectively implement the national adaptation plans to maintain food security under climate change. However, to date, information on the effects of climate change on the local rice cultivars used in developing countries is extremely limited. In the present study, we used a process-based crop growth model, MATCRO-Rice, to predict the impact of climate change on yields of the major local rice cultivar Ciherang in Indonesia during the next 25 years (2018-2042). This model simulated the effects of current to future air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on rice yield. A total of 14 future climate scenarios, derived from a combination of four general circulation models and three or four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, were used to consider the uncertainty of the future climate. The results showed that the rice yield was reduced under all climate scenarios, mainly because of the higher air temperature, leading to reduced photosynthetic rates, increased respiration rates, and phenological changes such as acceleration of senescence. The mean yield reduction across the 14 future climate scenarios was 12.1% for all of Indonesia in 2039-2042. Therefore, to maintain yields in Indonesia, rice production needs to adapt to climate change, and especially to higher air temperatures, in the near future.