著者

Yukiko Imada Masahiro Watanabe Hiroaki Kawase Hideo Shiogama Miki Arai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15A, pp.8-12, 2019 (Released:2019-06-07)

参考文献数

16

被引用文献数

13 70

---

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

著者

Yukiko Imada Masahiro Watanabe Hiroaki Kawase Hideo Shiogama Miki Arai

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.15A-002, (Released:2019-05-22)

被引用文献数

12 70

---

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

著者

Michiya Hayashi Hideo Shiogama

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-016, (Released:2022-03-28)

被引用文献数

3

---

The technique for composing a small subset of global climate models is critical to provide climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies of regional climate changes. A recent study developed a novel statistical method for selecting a mini-ensemble of five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for widely capturing different future projections of Japanese climate across eight atmospheric variables at the surface. However, it remains unclear which mini-ensemble model contributes to efficiently covering the full projection ranges. Here, we rank each mini-ensemble projection around Japan among a full ensemble, showing that the selected five models capture the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. Furthermore, we find that the widespread global warming level contributes to covering well the projection uncertainties in the daily-mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures and downward longwave radiation but not in precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, or wind speed. As the last four variables are sensitive to various factors, such as large-scale circulation and aerosol-forcing changes, rather than global-mean temperature changes, the model selection method featured here is preferable for capturing the wide future projection ranges in Japan.

著者

Noriko N. Ishizaki Motoki Nishimori Toshichika Iizumi Hideo Shiogama Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.80-85, 2020 (Released:2020-05-13)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

24

---

Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan were developed using two distinct methods, namely, the cumulative distribution function-based downscaling method (CDFDM) and Gaussian-type Scaling approach (GSA). We compared spatial distribution, monthly variation, and future trends. The seasonal distribution of bias-corrected data using CDFDM closely followed the original general circulation model (GCM) outputs. GSA overestimated the amount of precipitation by 12-18% in every season because of an unsuitable assumption on the probability distribution. We also examined the contributions of each source of the uncertainty in daily temperature and precipitation indices. For daily temperature indices, GCM selection was the main source of uncertainty in the near future (2026-2050), while different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) resulted in large variability at the end of the 21st century (2076-2100). We found large uncertainty using the bias-correction (BC) methods for daily precipitation indices even in the near future. Our results indicated that BC methods are an important source of uncertainty in climate risk assessments, especially for sectors where precipitation plays a dominant role. An appropriate choice of BC, or use of different BC methods, is encouraged for local mitigation and adaptation planning in addition to the use of different GCMs and RCPs.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.57-62, 2021 (Released:2021-04-03)

参考文献数

20

被引用文献数

1 17

---

Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Rui Ito Yukiko Imada Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Nagio Hirota Noriko N. Ishizaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Izuru Takayabu Seita Emori

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.75-79, 2020 (Released:2020-05-01)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

6

---

The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW.In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.

著者

Michiya Hayashi Hideo Shiogama

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.96-103, 2022 (Released:2022-05-17)

参考文献数

47

被引用文献数

3

---

The technique for composing a small subset of global climate models is critical to provide climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies of regional climate changes. A recent study developed a novel statistical method for selecting a mini-ensemble of five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 for widely capturing different future projections of Japanese climate across eight atmospheric variables at the surface. However, it remains unclear which mini-ensemble model contributes to efficiently covering the full projection ranges. Here, we rank each mini-ensemble projection around Japan among a full ensemble, showing that the selected five models capture the full ranges without systematic biases, except for relative humidity. Furthermore, we find that the widespread global warming level contributes to covering well the projection uncertainties in the daily-mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures and downward longwave radiation but not in precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, or wind speed. As the last four variables are sensitive to various factors, such as large-scale circulation and aerosol-forcing changes, rather than global-mean temperature changes, the model selection method featured here is preferable for capturing the wide future projection ranges in Japan.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Noriko N. Ishizaki Naota Hanasaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Seita Emori Rui Ito Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Izuru Takayabu Yasuaki Hijioka Yukari N. Takayabu Ryosuke Shibuya

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-009, (Released:2021-02-16)

被引用文献数

17

---

Climate change impact assessment studies often use future projections of only a few global climate models (GCMs) due to limited research resources. Here we develop a novel method to select a small subset of GCMs that widely capture the uncertainty range of large ensemble. By applying this method, we select a subset of five GCM projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble for impact and adaptation studies in Japan. At first, we omit GCMs whose global warming projections have been evaluated to be overestimated in the recent literature. Then, we select a subset of five GCMs that widely captures the uncertainty ranges for 8 climate variables and have good performances in present-climate simulations. These selected GCM simulations will be used to provide better climate scenarios for impact and adaptation studies than those in the previous impact assessment project.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Rui Ito Yukiko Imada Toshiyuki Nakaegawa Nagio Hirota Noriko N. Ishizaki Kiyoshi Takahashi Izuru Takayabu Seita Emori

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-013, (Released:2020-03-30)

被引用文献数

6

---

The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW. In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Yukiko Imada Masato Mori Ryo Mizuta Dáithí Stone Kohei Yoshida Osamu Arakawa Mikiko Ikeda Chiharu Takahashi Miki Arai Masayoshi Ishii Masahiro Watanabe Masahide Kimoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.225-231, 2016 (Released:2016-08-07)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

4 25

---

We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), long-term (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the “Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)”. We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001-2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

著者

Noriko N. Ishizaki Motoki Nishimori Toshichika Iizumi Hideo Shiogama Naota Hanasaki Takahashi Kiyoshi

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-014, (Released:2020-04-01)

被引用文献数

24

---

Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan were developed using two distinct methods, namely, the cumulative distribution function-based downscaling method (CDFDM) and Gaussian-type Scaling approach (GSA). We compared spatial distribution, monthly variation, and future trends. The seasonal distribution of bias-corrected data using CDFDM closely followed the original general circulation model (GCM) outputs. GSA overestimated the amount of precipitation by 12-18% in every season because of an unsuitable assumption on the probability distribution. We also examined the contributions of each source of the uncertainty in daily temperature and precipitation indices. For daily temperature indices, GCM selection was the main source of uncertainty in the near future (2026-2050), while different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) resulted in large variability at the end of the 21st century (2076-2100). We found large uncertainty using the bias-correction (BC) methods for daily precipitation indices even in the near future. Our results indicated that BC methods are an important source of uncertainty in climate risk assessments, especially for sectors where precipitation plays a dominant role. An appropriate choice of BC, or use of different BC methods, is encouraged for local mitigation and adaptation planning in addition to the use of different GCMs and RCPs.

著者

Yoshimitsu CHIKAMOTO Masahide KIMOTO Masayoshi ISHII Masahiro WATANABE Toru NOZAWA Takashi MOCHIZUKI Hiroaki TATEBE Takashi T. SAKAMOTO Yoshiki KOMURO Hideo SHIOGAMA Masato MORI Sayaka YASUNAKA Yukiko IMADA Hiroshi KOYAMA Masato NOZU Fei-fei JIN

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.90A, pp.1-21, 2012 (Released:2012-06-07)

参考文献数

52

被引用文献数

14 24

---

Sea surface temperature (SST) predictability in the Pacific on decadal timescales is examined in hindcast experiments using the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC with low, medium, and high resolutions. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity while prescribing natural and anthropogenic forcing based on the IPCC concentration scenarios. Our hindcast experiments show the predictability of SST in the western subtropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the tropics to the North Atlantic. Previous studies have examined the SST predictability in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, but SST predictability in the western subtropical Pacific has not been evaluated. In the western Pacific, the observed SST anomalies in the subtropics of both hemispheres increased rapidly from the early 1990s to the early 2000s. While this SST warming in the western subtropical Pacific is partly explained by global warming signals, the predictions of our model initialized in 1995 or 1996 tend to simulate the pattern of the SST increase and the associated precipitation changes. This large climate change around the late 1990s may be related to phenomena such as the recent increase in the typhoon frequency in Taiwan and the weakened East Asian monsoon reported by recent studies.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Masahiro Watanabe Yukiko Imada Masato Mori Youichi Kamae Masayoshi Ishii Masahide Kimoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.122-126, 2014 (Released:2014-08-02)

参考文献数

35

被引用文献数

8 39 1

---

A severe heat wave occurred in the southwestern United States (US) during June and July 2013. To investigate the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on this event, we generated large ensemble simulations of possible weather using the MIROC5A climate model forced by “historical external forcing agents, sea surface temperature (SST) observations and sea ice (SIC) observations” both with and without human influence. It was suggested that both the anthropogenic warming and an atmospheric circulation regime related to the natural variability of SST and SIC made the heat wave event more likely. On the other hand, no significant human influence was found in atmospheric circulation patterns. These results were robust for two different estimates of anthropogenic signals on SST and SIC.