- 著者
- Kei YOSHIMURA Taikan OKI Nobuhito OHTE Shinjiro KANAE
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.82, no.5, pp.1315-1329, 2004 (Released:2004-12-17)
- 参考文献数
- 33
- 被引用文献数
- 56 86
This study investigated the dynamic motion of atmospheric water advection by an analytic method called colored moisture analysis (CMA), that allows for the estimation and visualization of atmospheric moisture advection from specific source regions. The CMA water transport model includes balance equations with the upstream scheme and, uses external meteorological forcings. The forcings were obtained from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Asian Monsoon Experiments (GAME) reanalysis. A numerical simulation with 79 global sections was run for April to October 1998. The results clearly showed seasonal variations in advection associated with large-scale circulation fields, particularly a difference between rainy and dry seasons associated with the Asian monsoon. The paper also proposes a new definition of southwest Asian monsoon onset and decay, based on the amount of water originating from the Indian Ocean. Earliest onset occurs over southeastern Indochina around 16- 25 May. Subsequent onset occurs in India one month later. These results agree with previous studies on the Asian monsoon onset/end. The CMA provides a clearer, more integrated view of temporal and spatial changes in atmospheric circulation fields, particularly Asian monsoon activities, than previous studies that focused only on one or two distinct circulation features, such as precipitation or wind speed. Furthermore, monsoon transition in a specific year, 1998, first became analyzable, whereas the previous studies used climatologies.
- 著者
- Yukiko Hirabayashi Shinjiro Kanae
- 出版者
- 水文・水資源学会/日本地下水学会/日本水文科学会/陸水物理研究会
- 雑誌
- Hydrological Research Letters (ISSN:18823416)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.3, pp.6-9, 2009 (Released:2009-01-29)
- 参考文献数
- 7
- 被引用文献数
- 23 58
Flooding is one of the major risks anticipated to increase in association with anthropogenically induced climate change which is likely to intensify the global water cycle. Currently, 20 to 300 million people per year are affected by floods that threaten both social security and sustainable development. This study presents the first estimate of future populations at risk of flooding. Results indicate that in the case of 3°C warming from the average of 1980-1999, approximately 300 million people could be at risk even in years of relatively low flooding; this number corresponds to the number of people affected in a devastating flood year at present. If the temperature increase is greater than 3°C, the flood-affected population would likely be even larger. We suggest that approximately 2°C warming, rather than 3°C warming, should be considered the critical level of temperature increase.
- 著者
- Yukiko Hirabayashi Yong Zang Satoshi Watanabe Sujan Koirala Shinjiro Kanae
- 出版者
- 水文・水資源学会/日本地下水学会/日本水文科学会/陸水物理研究会
- 雑誌
- Hydrological Research Letters (ISSN:18823416)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.7, no.1, pp.6-11, 2013 (Released:2013-03-09)
- 参考文献数
- 23
- 被引用文献数
- 10 38
We report a time series (1948–2100) of global-scale meltwater from mountain glaciers and ice caps (MGI) estimated by the global glacier model HYOGA2. HYOGA2 calculates the temporal fluctuation of the mass balance for 24,234 individual glaciers worldwide. It covers 90% of the total glacier area, except for glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. HYOGA2 also accounts for regionally distributed changes in glacier area and altitude associated with glacier retreat and advance. By computation of individual glacier changes, future dissipation and glacier mass and area changes can be simulated in the model. The cumulative volume loss of water between 1948 and 2005 was estimated to be 25.9 ± 1.4 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). A future projection under a high-emission scenario demonstrated significant losses of water from MGI equivalent to 60.3 ± 7.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2060 and 99.0 ± 14.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2099.