- 經濟學論究 (ISSN:02868032)
- vol.60, no.4, pp.37-66, 2007-04
The purpose of this paper is to clarify the mechanism of the Juglar cycle. To do this, first of all, we show the existence of the Juglar cycle in the post-war period in Japan. Until now, the Juglar cycle in the post-war period was shown in terms of the investment-GDP ratio. Instead of this, we will indicate the existence of the Juglar cycle in terms of 16 periods moving average of GDP growth rate. Moreover, we will show the cyclical relations between the GDP growth rate and the capital stock growth rate. In order to give a theoretical explanation for these cyclical relations, we will set up the model with the capital stock adjustment principle and make use of the limit cycle theorem of Poincare=Bendixson.