著者

青野 靖之 谷 彩夏

出版者

日本農業気象学会

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, pp.18-28, 2014 (Released:2014-03-27)

参考文献数

25

被引用文献数

1 7

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We investigated historical records (e.g. old diaries, historiography, and daily newspapers) and acquired phenological data series for autumn-tinted maple (Acer spp.) leaves in Kyoto, Japan. From the 10th to 21st centuries, we gathered 504 years of phenological data for maple leaves' autumn tints. A preliminary analysis suggested that the dates of the maple autumn tints were affected by the October mean temperature. Therefore, an attempt was made to reconstruct the October mean temperature in Kyoto by applying the phenological data for autumn tints of maple leaves. Autumn temperature series partially showed a pattern similar to springtime temperature series. A cooling trend over the 15th — 16th centuries and cool conditions in the late 17th and the early 19th centuries were detected in both the October and the March temperature series; however, October temperature change preceded March temperature change by about 10—20 years. This suggests that the time-lag of response of October temperatures in Kyoto to the solar variation may be smaller than that of March temperatures.

著者

大野 宏之 佐々木 華織 大原 源二 中園 江

出版者

The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.71-79, 2016 (Released:2016-03-01)

参考文献数

13

被引用文献数

12 130

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We developed a method for determining nationwide 1 km-grid square values of daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, and daily precipitation in Japan. The data were obtained using the JMA's nationwide observations, numerical forecasts, and climatic normal values. RMSE values for these elements in the past were 0.66 °C, 0.98 °C, 1.10 °C, and 5.9 mm/day, while those for one-day future were 1.18 °C, 1.65 °C, 2.00 °C, and 11.0 mm/day, respectively. The improvement in accuracy by introducing the forecasts was recognized even for values six-day future, though errors tended to increase with forecast range. The data are intended for use in the management of currently growing crops with a combination of crop models.

著者

松田 怜 的場 伸行

出版者

日本農業気象学会

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.22, pp.58-68, 2022-07-10 (Released:2022-07-10)

参考文献数

108

著者

青野 靖之 村上 なつき

出版者

The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.25-33, 2017 (Released:2017-04-10)

参考文献数

32

被引用文献数

6 8

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We constructed a simplified method to estimate first flowering dates of cherry tree (Prunus×yedoensis), considering temperature conditions in endodormancy process. We adopted the DTS method, which is an accumulation model of forcing effect of temperatures during developing process, as an estimation model of cherry blossom phenology in this study. In our previous studies, DTS method with fixed (pre-determined) starting dates for each site showed high accuracies for cold regions, whereas low accuracies for warm regions. Such accuracy drop was attributed to the volatility in endodormancy completion in warmer region of Japan, affected by inter-annual variation in chilling temperature during winter season. In order to reduce such error, it had been necessary to calculate chilling hours from hourly temperature data and evaluate the progress in endodormancy releasing process, with complicated conventional procedures. In our new model, an annual discrepancy in starting date of forcing effect from the pre-determined dates, calculated from a simplified procedure in our previous model, were calculated as the product of the correction coefficient, Ci, for each year and a winter temperature normal value above a threshold of chilling effect for endodormancy release, (TDJ-1.5), for each site. Annual correlation coefficient Ci was calculated from averaged winter temperatures at 7 secular observatories in warm region in Japan. Estimated first flowering dates with and without correction of starting dates were compared each other. The estimations by new method kept under about 3.2 days of RMSE. The introduction of new method also reduced RMSE within 3 days into approximately half of stations, applied to verification of new method with relatively long (50-year) period.

著者

伊藤 大雄

出版者

日本農業気象学会

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.20, pp.76-83, 2020 (Released:2020-07-10)

参考文献数

77

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Due to the enrichment of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the air temperature will rise by 3-6℃ and the amount of snowfall will change by the end of the 21st century in northern Tohoku district of Japan. The effect of these changes to the apple cultivation at present and in the future is reviewed. Due to the temperature increase, the date of flowering will advance at the rate 0.2 days year-1 until 2040, as is observed already at present. The advancement will continue until 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, while it will slow down after 2040 and stop around 2080 under RCP4.5 scenario. Because the varietal difference in the flowering date will gradually increase, the insect pollination may become difficult at the end of this century. Harvesting date will advance and delay in early- and late-maturing varieties, respectively. Thus in late-maturing varieties, fruit weight may increase depending on the extension of fruit growth period. On the contrary, fruit storability will very likely reduce, and pigmentation will get worse especially in red-skin early-maturing varieties. Moreover, the risk of sunburn damage will increase, and the risk of late frost injury is also indicated to increase by several researchers. On the other hand, we can expect the reduction of snow damage because the amount of snowfall is generally predicted to decrease in the future, although such decreasing tendency is not detected in the past 50-100 years. Considering the conspicuous midday depression of photosynthesis observed in apple trees, they are now in serious sink-limited condition possibly due to the severe fruit thinning. Therefore, the fruit yield cultivated under high CO2 concentration will hardly increase, unless we alter the strength of thinning to improve the sink capacity of the tree.

著者

川方 俊和

出版者

日本農業気象学会

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.77-82, 2017 (Released:2017-10-10)

参考文献数

21

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An alternative approach for predicting the heading date of rice plants was developed by using the 30-yr averaged normal heading date for the input of a developmental index model instead of using the information on the rice transplanting date and the developmental index on that date. This approach is based on the fact that the normal heading date has less spatial heterogeneity compared with the standard input variables and facilitates prediction of the spatial variation of the heading date. The model predicted the inter-regional variation of the heading date in the Tohoku district of Japan within 2 days for its root mean square errors (RMSE), which is similar to that of the traditional developmental index (DVI) model, and well reproduced spatial variation of the heading date over Tohoku district in extremely hot/cold years, although further validation is needed to prove the model accuracy.

著者

広田 知良 山﨑 太地 安井 美裕 古川 準三 丹羽 勝久 根本 学 濱嵜 孝弘 下田 星児 菅野 洋光 西尾 善太

出版者

日本農業気象学会

雑誌

生物と気象 (ISSN:13465368)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.34-45, 2017 (Released:2017-04-10)

参考文献数

67

被引用文献数

10

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Although climatic conditions had hindered the introduction of Pinot Noir, a cultivar of wine grape (Vitis vinifera), to areas such as Yoichi and Sorachi, Hokkaido, northernmost Japan, the growing region of the cultivar has recently extended. We analyzed meteorological data to obtain the rationale for the successful cultivation of Pinot Noir in Hokkaido; climate shift since 1998 pointed by Kanno (2013), i.e., rise in summer temperature, facilitated cultivation of the variety. Today, Yoich and Sorachi have become the right locations for growing the cultivar, and it has also been grown in other areas. Indeed, the vintage chart in Tokachi indicated the consistent, good harvest of grape since 1998. There is negative correlation in the average monthly temperature between April and August, and positive correlation between August and September ever since the climate shift. We hypothesize the benefits of the climate shift in terms of wine production as follows: 1) in years with low April temperature and high summer temperature, the growth rate in early stage delays, but the temperature required for grape maturation is secured by high temperature in August and September; and 2) in years with warm April and subsequent cool summer, early growth start keeps the growing season long enough, which may have compensated the risk of poor grape maturation in cool summer. Thus, climate change is considered to have favored the cultivation of Pinot Noir in Hokkaido.