著者
Masato Sugi Yohei Yamada Kohei Yoshida Ryo Mizuta Masuo Nakano Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh
出版者
Meteorological Society of Japan
雑誌
SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
巻号頁・発行日
vol.16, pp.70-74, 2020 (Released:2020-05-01)
参考文献数
22

In relation to projections of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, there is a debate on whether the global frequency of TC seeds (weak pre-storm vortices) will increase or not. We examined changes in the frequency of TC seeds by occurrence frequency analysis (OFA) of vortex intensity (vorticity or maximum wind speed). We directly counted the number of vortices with various intensities in high resolution global atmospheric model simulations for present and future climates. By using the OFA we showed a clear reduction of the occurrence frequency of TC seeds and relatively weak (category 2 or weaker) TCs in a future warmer climate, with an increase in the frequency of the most intense (category 5) TCs. The results suggest that the OFA is a useful method to estimate the future changes in TC frequency distribution ranging from TC seeds to the most intense TCs.

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Sola new paper: Sugi et al., Future Changes in the Global Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Seeds, SOLA, 2020, VOL.16, 70-74, doi:10.2151/sola.2020-012, https://t.co/XXg4HKk3eX https://t.co/Z3WNGtKc7z

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