著者

Seiji YUKIMOTO Yukimasa ADACHI Masahiro HOSAKA Tomonori SAKAMI Hiromasa YOSHIMURA Mikitoshi HIRABARA Taichu Y. TANAKA Eiki SHINDO Hiroyuki TSUJINO Makoto DEUSHI Ryo MIZUTA Shoukichi YABU Atsushi OBATA Hideyuki NAKANO Tsuyoshi KOSHIRO Tomoaki OSE Akio KITOH

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.90A, pp.23-64, 2012 (Released:2012-06-07)

参考文献数

157

被引用文献数

354 624

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A new global climate model, MRI-CGCM3, has been developed at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). This model is an overall upgrade of MRI’s former climate model MRI-CGCM2 series. MRI-CGCM3 is composed of atmosphere-land, aerosol, and ocean-ice models, and is a subset of the MRI’s earth system model MRI-ESM1. Atmospheric component MRI-AGCM3 is interactively coupled with aerosol model to represent direct and indirect effects of aerosols with a new cloud microphysics scheme. Basic experiments for pre-industrial control, historical and climate sensitivity are performed with MRI-CGCM3. In the pre-industrial control experiment, the model exhibits very stable behavior without climatic drifts, at least in the radiation budget, the temperature near the surface and the major indices of ocean circulations. The sea surface temperature (SST) drift is sufficiently small, while there is a 1 W m-2 heating imbalance at the surface. The model’s climate sensitivity is estimated to be 2.11 K with Gregory’s method. The transient climate response (TCR) to 1 % yr-1 increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is 1.6 K with doubling of CO2 concentration and 4.1 K with quadrupling of CO2 concentration. The simulated present-day mean climate in the historical experiment is evaluated by comparison with observations, including reanalysis. The model reproduces the overall mean climate, including seasonal variation in various aspects in the atmosphere and the oceans. Variability in the simulated climate is also evaluated and is found to be realistic, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation and the Arctic and Antarctic oscillations. However, some important issues are identified. The simulated SST indicates generally cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and warm bias in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and the simulated sea ice expands excessively in the North Atlantic in winter. A double ITCZ also appears in the tropical Pacific, particularly in the austral summer.

著者

Hiroaki Kawase Akihiko Murata Ken Yamada Tosiyuki Nakaegawa Rui Ito Ryo Mizuta Masaya Nosaka Shunichi Watanabe Hidetaka Sasaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-001, (Released:2020-12-18)

被引用文献数

12

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We investigate regional characteristics of future changes in snowfall in Japan under two emission scenarios—RCP2.6 and RCP8.5—using a high-resolution regional climate model with 5 km grid spacing and discuss the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. The high-resolution model can simulate details of changes in distributions of total snowfall in Japan. Under RCP2.6, the annual total snowfall decreases in most parts of Japan except for Japan's northern island, Hokkaido. In Hokkaido, the winter snowfall increases even under RCP8.5, especially in January and February. The snowfall peak is delayed from early December to late January in Hokkaido. Along the Sea of Japan in eastern Japan, the winter-total snowfall decreases even if the winter mean temperature is below 0°C in the future climate. The different snowfall changes in Hokkaido and on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan are caused by precipitation changes in each region. Future changes in atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low cause the enhancement and the inhibition of winter precipitation in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, respectively, contributing to changes in the regional characteristics of snowfall and snow cover in addition to moistening due to atmospheric and ocean warming.

著者

Masato Sugi Yohei Yamada Kohei Yoshida Ryo Mizuta Masuo Nakano Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.70-74, 2020 (Released:2020-05-01)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

31

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In relation to projections of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, there is a debate on whether the global frequency of TC seeds (weak pre-storm vortices) will increase or not. We examined changes in the frequency of TC seeds by occurrence frequency analysis (OFA) of vortex intensity (vorticity or maximum wind speed). We directly counted the number of vortices with various intensities in high resolution global atmospheric model simulations for present and future climates. By using the OFA we showed a clear reduction of the occurrence frequency of TC seeds and relatively weak (category 2 or weaker) TCs in a future warmer climate, with an increase in the frequency of the most intense (category 5) TCs. The results suggest that the OFA is a useful method to estimate the future changes in TC frequency distribution ranging from TC seeds to the most intense TCs.

著者

Daisuke Hatsuzuka Tomonori Sato Kohei Yoshida Masayoshi Ishii Ryo Mizuta

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16, pp.23-29, 2020 (Released:2020-02-14)

参考文献数

28

被引用文献数

12

---

This study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) around Japan using large ensemble regional climate simulations for historical and +4 K climates. Under the warmer climate, extreme TC precipitation, defined as the 90th percentile value of the maximum daily precipitation derived from each TC (TCP90), is projected to increase throughout Japan from Kyushu to Kanto. We attributed most of the increase in TCP90 to increased atmospheric moisture due to global warming. Furthermore, it was found that TCP90 is projected to increase for all TC intensity categories. However, the projected increase in intense TCs affects TCP90 in only a limited area. Stronger TCs enhance TCP90 over east- and north-facing slopes of mountainous terrain, while TCP90 in most other areas is insensitive to TC intensity. These results suggest that even relatively weak TCs could have potential to produce extreme precipitation that might cause natural disasters.

著者

Masato Sugi Yohei Yamada Kohei Yoshida Ryo Mizuta Masuo Nakano Chihiro Kodama Masaki Satoh

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-012, (Released:2020-03-19)

被引用文献数

31

---

In relation to projections of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, there is a debate on whether the global frequency of TC seeds (weak pre-storm vortices) will increase or not. We examined changes in the frequency of TC seeds by occurrence frequency analysis (OFA) of vortex intensity (vorticity or maximum wind speed). We directly counted the number of vortices with various intensities in high resolution global atmospheric model simulations for present and future climates. By using the OFA we showed a clear reduction of the occurrence frequency of TC seeds and relatively weak (category 2 or weaker) TCs in a future warmer climate, with an increase in the frequency of the most intense (category 5) TCs. The results suggest that the OFA is a useful method to estimate the future changes in TC frequency distribution ranging from TC seeds to the most intense TCs.

著者

Hirokazu Endo Akio Kitoh Ryo Mizuta

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-010, (Released:2022-03-01)

被引用文献数

1

---

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the western North Pacific and East Asia (WNP-EA) are investigated using a 20 km mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Time-slice simulations are performed under low- and high-emission scenarios using different spatial patterns of changes in sea surface temperature. In the WNP-EA region, future changes in the climatological mean of the annual maximum 1 day precipitation total (Rx1d) are characterized by a large meridional variation, where the higher the latitude, the greater the rate of increase in Rx1d, although this pattern is not so clear under the low emission scenario. This feature probably results from a combination of two factors: a greater warming in high latitudes and a decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the subtropics. The future changes in Rx1d climatology for the 20 km AGCM show a marked difference in comparison with those of the lower-resolution AGCM and conventional climate models. Part of this discrepancy may come from differences in model resolution through representation of TCs, suggesting that coarse-resolution models may have some systematic bias in future projections of extreme precipitation in the WNP-EA region.

著者

Kazuyoshi OOUCHI Jun YOSHIMURA Hiromasa YOSHIMURA Ryo MIZUTA Shoji KUSUNOKI Akira NODA

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.84, no.2, pp.259-276, 2006 (Released:2006-05-19)

参考文献数

41

被引用文献数

293 447

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Possible changes in the tropical cyclones in a future, greenhouse-warmed climate are investigated using a 20 km-mesh, high-resolution, global atmospheric model of MRI/JMA, with the analyses focused on the evaluation of the frequency and wind intensity. Two types of 10-year climate experiments are conducted. One is a present-day climate experiment, and the other is a greenhouse-warmed climate experiment, with a forcing of higher sea surface temperature and increased greenhouse-gas concentration. A comparison of the experiments suggests that the tropical cyclone frequency in the warm-climate experiment is globally reduced by about 30% (but increased in the North Atlantic) compared to the present-day-climate experiment. Furthermore, the number of intense tropical cyclones increases. The maximum surface wind speed for the most intense tropical cyclone generally increases under the greenhouse-warmed condition (by 7.3 m s−1 in the Northern Hemisphere and by 3.3 m s−1 in the Southern Hemisphere). On average, these findings suggest the possibility of higher risks of more devastating tropical cyclones across the globe in a future greenhouse-warmed climate.

著者

Yasuko OKADA Tetsuya TAKEMI Hirohiko ISHIKAWA Shoji KUSUNOKI Ryo MIZUTA

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.95, no.4, pp.239-260, 2017 (Released:2017-07-04)

参考文献数

45

被引用文献数

20

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This study investigates future changes in atmospheric circulation during the Baiu in Japan using 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations for the present-day (1979-2003) and the future (2075-2099) climates under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. The simulated future climates include the outputs obtained with one control sea surface temperature (SST) and three different SST patterns. The Baiu frontal zone, defined as the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature, gradually moves northward during June–July–August in the present-day climate. In the future climate simulations using the control SST, the Baiu frontal zone is projected to stay to the south of Japan in June. Thus, precipitation is projected to increase over this region, while decreasing in the western part of Japan. Future changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulations in June are consistent across all four SST patterns. However, precipitation and atmospheric circulation in July and August in the future climate simulation depends on the SST patterns as follows: in non-El Niño-like SST pattern, the Baiu terminates in late July, similar to that of the present-day climate; a result with an El Niño-like SST pattern shows that sufficient amount moisture is transported to the Japanese islands and leads in a delay of the Baiu termination until August; and in the SST pattern with strong warming in the western North Pacific (WNP), a sufficient amount of moisture is transported to the south of Japan from June until August. The difference in the SST pattern leads to a variation in sea-level pressure in the WNP and affects a variation of the Northern Pacific subtropical high around the Japanese islands in July and August.

著者

Hirokazu Endo Akio Kitoh Ryo Mizuta

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.58-64, 2022 (Released:2022-03-29)

参考文献数

38

被引用文献数

1

---

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the western North Pacific and East Asia (WNP-EA) are investigated using a 20 km mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Time-slice simulations are performed under low- and high-emission scenarios using different spatial patterns of changes in sea surface temperature. In the WNP-EA region, future changes in the climatological mean of the annual maximum 1 day precipitation total (Rx1d) are characterized by a large meridional variation, where the higher the latitude, the greater the rate of increase in Rx1d, although this pattern is not so clear under the low emission scenario. This feature probably results from a combination of two factors: a greater warming in high latitudes and a decrease in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the subtropics. The future changes in Rx1d climatology for the 20 km AGCM show a marked difference in comparison with those of the lower-resolution AGCM and conventional climate models. Part of this discrepancy may come from differences in model resolution through representation of TCs, suggesting that coarse-resolution models may have some systematic bias in future projections of extreme precipitation in the WNP-EA region.

著者

Hiroaki Kawase Akihiko Murata Ken Yamada Tosiyuki Nakaegawa Rui Ito Ryo Mizuta Masaya Nosaka Shunichi Watanabe Hidetaka Sasaki

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.1-7, 2021 (Released:2021-01-27)

参考文献数

29

被引用文献数

12

---

We investigate regional characteristics of future changes in snowfall in Japan under two emission scenarios—RCP2.6 and RCP8.5—using a high-resolution regional climate model with 5km grid spacing and discuss the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. The high-resolution model can simulate details of changes in distributions of total snowfall in Japan. Under RCP2.6, the annual total snowfall decreases in most parts of Japan except for Japan's northern island, Hokkaido. In Hokkaido, the winter snowfall increases even under RCP8.5, especially in January and February. The snowfall peak is delayed from early December to late January in Hokkaido. Along the Sea of Japan in eastern Japan, the winter-total snowfall decreases even if the winter mean temperature is below 0°C in the future climate. The different snowfall changes in Hokkaido and on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan are caused by precipitation changes in each region. Future changes in atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low cause the enhancement and the inhibition of winter precipitation in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, respectively, contributing to changes in the regional characteristics of snowfall and snow cover in addition to moistening due to atmospheric and ocean warming.

著者

Daisuke Hatsuzuka Tomonori Sato Kohei Yoshida Masayoshi Ishii Ryo Mizuta

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2020-005, (Released:2020-01-16)

被引用文献数

12

---

This study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) around Japan using large ensemble regional climate simulations for historical and +4 K climates. Under the warmer climate, extreme TC precipitation, defined as the 90th percentile value of the maximum daily precipitation derived from each TC (TCP90), is projected to increase throughout Japan from Kyushu to Kanto. We attributed most of the increase in TCP90 to increased atmospheric moisture due to global warming. Furthermore, it was found that TCP90 is projected to increase for all TC intensity categories. However, the projected increase in intense TCs affects TCP90 in only a limited area. Stronger TCs enhance TCP90 over east- and north-facing slopes of mountainous terrain, while TCP90 in most other areas is insensitive to TC intensity. These results suggest that even relatively weak TCs could have potential to produce extreme precipitation that might cause natural disasters.

著者

Hideo Shiogama Yukiko Imada Masato Mori Ryo Mizuta Dáithí Stone Kohei Yoshida Osamu Arakawa Mikiko Ikeda Chiharu Takahashi Miki Arai Masayoshi Ishii Masahiro Watanabe Masahide Kimoto

出版者

(公社)日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.12, pp.225-231, 2016 (Released:2016-08-07)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

4 25

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We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), long-term (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the “Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)”. We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001-2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

著者

Seiji YUKIMOTO Hideaki KAWAI Tsuyoshi KOSHIRO Naga OSHIMA Kohei YOSHIDA Shogo URAKAWA Hiroyuki TSUJINO Makoto DEUSHI Taichu TANAKA Masahiro HOSAKA Shokichi YABU Hiromasa YOSHIMURA Eiki SHINDO Ryo MIZUTA Atsushi OBATA Yukimasa ADACHI Masayoshi ISHII

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.97, no.5, pp.931-965, 2019 (Released:2019-09-19)

参考文献数

135

被引用文献数

212 441

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The new Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0) has been developed based on previous models, MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1, which participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These models underwent numerous improvements meant for highly accurate climate reproducibility. This paper describes model formulation updates and evaluates basic performance of its physical components. The new model has nominal horizontal resolutions of 100 km for atmosphere and ocean components, similar to the previous models. The atmospheric vertical resolution is 80 layers, which is enhanced from the 48 layers of its predecessor. Accumulation of various improvements concerning clouds, such as a new stratocumulus cloud scheme, led to remarkable reduction in errors in shortwave, longwave, and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The resulting errors are sufficiently small compared with those in the CMIP5 models. The improved radiation distribution brings the accurate meridional heat transport required for the ocean and contributes to a reduced surface air temperature (SAT) bias. MRI-ESM2.0 displays realistic reproduction of both mean climate and interannual variability. For instance, the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation can now be realistically expressed through the enhanced vertical resolution and introduction of non-orographic gravity wave drag parameterization. For the historical experiment, MRI-ESM2.0 reasonably reproduces global SAT change for recent decades; however, cooling in the 1950s through the 1960s and warming afterward are overestimated compared with observations. MRI-ESM2.0 has been improved in many aspects over the previous models, MRI-CGCM3 and MRI-ESM1, and is expected to demonstrate superior performance in many experiments planned for CMIP6.

著者

Ryo MIZUTA Yoshihiro OTANI Kentaro FUJII Atsuhito UNEDA Joji ISHIDA Takehiro TANAKA Shuntaro IKEGAWA Nobuharu FUJII Yoshinobu MAEDA Isao DATE

出版者

The Japan Neurosurgical Society

雑誌

NMC Case Report Journal (ISSN:21884226)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, pp.275-280, 2022-12-31 (Released:2022-09-03)

参考文献数

22

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Although high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is the standard therapy for primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL), the prognosis remains poor. Because 90% of PCNSL is diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) -T cell therapy is expected to be beneficial. However, there are limited reports on CAR-T cell therapy for PCNSL because of the concern of neurotoxicity. Here, we report a case of relapsed PCNSL treated with anti-CD19 CAR-T cell therapy. A 40-year-old woman presenting with visual disturbance in her left eye was initially diagnosed with bilateral uveitis. Her histological diagnosis was DLBCL, and she was positive for CD19. Although she received chemotherapy including HD-MTX, the tumor relapsed in her right occipital lobe. She underwent remission induction therapy and then anti-CD19 CAR-T cell therapy. Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) grade 2 occurred, but there were no complications of CAR-T cell-related encephalopathy syndrome (CRES). She has achieved complete response for more than 1 year. Anti-CD19 CAR-T cell therapy is a revolutionary immunotherapy for treating relapsed or refractory (R/R) B lineage malignancies. Although there are concerns regarding CRS and CRES in central nervous system lymphoma, the use of anti-CD19 CAR-T cells to treat R/R PCNSL is safe and feasible.

著者

Ryo Mizuta Osamu Arakawa Tomoaki Ose Shoji Kusunoki Hirokazu Endo Akio Kitoh

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.10, pp.167-171, 2014 (Released:2014-10-23)

参考文献数

14

被引用文献数

83 140

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Climate changes for the end of the 21st century projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models are classified into three clusters by a cluster analysis of annual-mean tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change patterns. The classified SST change patterns are featured by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific and inter-hemispheric contrast of the warming. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the SST changes are examined. Precipitation increase is larger where SST warming is larger than surroundings and vice versa. Common precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses for each cluster are found also over tropical lands and the extratropics as well as in the tropical oceans, suggesting that some remote effects of the tropical SST change patterns could be one reason for less agreement among CMIP5 models in climate changes.