著者

横田 賀英子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 和智 妙子 渡邉 和美

出版者

日本法科学技術学会

雑誌

日本法科学技術学会誌 (ISSN:18801323)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.1, pp.19-30, 2014 (Released:2014-02-04)

参考文献数

15

被引用文献数

1

---

Characteristics of male offenders arrested in Japan for exhibitionism (N = 414) and features of their offences were investigated. In analyses, their behavioral consistency was also examined by focusing on 87 repeat exhibitionists. The results indicated that many offenders were well-adjusted persons: 71% were employed, 30% were married, and 23% were graduates. Moreover, 66% of the offences were committed in daytime, and 64% targeted victims aged 10-20 years. In 24% of cases, the distances between offenders' residences and crime scenes were less than one kilometer, whereas 40% of offenders lived over 5 kilometers away. In terms of behavioral consistency, offences in “trains or buses” and public spaces were shown to be consistent for repeated arrests, even after taking the occurrence rate into consideration by measures of adjusted standardized residual (ASR) and forward specialization coefficient (FSC), which is suggestive of behavioral consistency. Finally, less frequent behaviors, such as nighttime offences and offences targeting victims aged 30 years or older occurred less consistently in the series of offences. The results suggested that many exhibitionists rationally decided when and where to commit crimes, based on their calculation of risk and reward. The fact that many offenders were well-adjusted persons might be one of factors explaining offender's rational decision making. The findings in the current study can contribute to the police investigation to prioritize their investigative targets. The current research can form the basis of understanding of the nature of male exhibitionists.

著者

横田 賀英子 渡邉 和美 和智 妙子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 藤田 悟郎

出版者

公益社団法人 日本心理学会

雑誌

心理学研究 (ISSN:00215236)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.86.13086, (Released:2015-05-28)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

9 3

---

The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding “day of the week”) significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82–0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.

著者

横田 賀英子 渡邉 和美 和智 妙子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 藤田 悟郎

出版者

公益社団法人 日本心理学会

雑誌

心理学研究 (ISSN:00215236)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.86, no.3, pp.209-218, 2015 (Released:2015-08-25)

参考文献数

37

被引用文献数

7 3

---

The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding “day of the week”) significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82–0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.

著者

横田 賀英子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 和智 妙子 渡邉 和美

出版者

Japanese Association of Forensic Science and Technology

雑誌

日本法科学技術学会誌 (ISSN:18801323)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, no.1, pp.19-30, 2014

---

Characteristics of male offenders arrested in Japan for exhibitionism (<i>N</i> = 414) and features of their offences were investigated. In analyses, their behavioral consistency was also examined by focusing on 87 repeat exhibitionists. The results indicated that many offenders were well-adjusted persons: 71% were employed, 30% were married, and 23% were graduates. Moreover, 66% of the offences were committed in daytime, and 64% targeted victims aged 10-20 years. In 24% of cases, the distances between offenders' residences and crime scenes were less than one kilometer, whereas 40% of offenders lived over 5 kilometers away. In terms of behavioral consistency, offences in "trains or buses" and public spaces were shown to be consistent for repeated arrests, even after taking the occurrence rate into consideration by measures of adjusted standardized residual (ASR) and forward specialization coefficient (FSC), which is suggestive of behavioral consistency. Finally, less frequent behaviors, such as nighttime offences and offences targeting victims aged 30 years or older occurred less consistently in the series of offences. The results suggested that many exhibitionists rationally decided when and where to commit crimes, based on their calculation of risk and reward. The fact that many offenders were well-adjusted persons might be one of factors explaining offender's rational decision making. The findings in the current study can contribute to the police investigation to prioritize their investigative targets. The current research can form the basis of understanding of the nature of male exhibitionists.<br>

著者

萩野谷 俊平 倉石 宏樹 花山 愛子 小林 正和 細川 豊治 杉本 貴史

出版者

公益社団法人 日本心理学会

雑誌

心理学研究 (ISSN:00215236)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.88.16011, (Released:2017-01-14)

参考文献数

52

被引用文献数

1 2

---

Studies of geographic profiling (GP) have generally investigated the efficacy of two categories of GP strategies for predicting an offender’s base. These strategies can be classified as follows: (a) spatial distribution strategies, assessed by center of the circle hypothesis, mean center, median center, and the center of minimum distance, and (b) probability distance strategies, assessed by linear, negative exponential, logarithmic, and lognormal distributions. GP strategies were compared based on the data of 333 residential burglars who had committed at least three offenses in the Tohoku region during the years 2004-2013. Search area (total area that is searched before locating the offender’s base) was utilized as an index for accuracy measure. The results demonstrated that probability distance strategies are more accurate than spatial distribution strategies. We conclude that this is because probability distance strategies captured crime patterns of residential burglars more precisely than spatial distribution strategies.

著者

萩野谷 俊平 倉石 宏樹 花山 愛子 小林 正和 細川 豊治 杉本 貴史

出版者

公益社団法人 日本心理学会

雑誌

心理学研究

巻号頁・発行日

2018

被引用文献数

2

---

<p>Studies of geographic profiling (GP) have generally investigated the efficacy of two categories of GP strategies for predicting an offender's base. These strategies can be classified as follows: (a) spatial distribution strategies, assessed by center of the circle hypothesis, mean center, median center, and the center of minimum distance, and (b) probability distance strategies, assessed by linear, negative exponential, logarithmic, and lognormal distributions. GP strategies were compared based on the data of 333 residential burglars who had committed at least three offenses in the Tohoku region during the years 2004-2013. Search area (total area that is searched before locating the offender's base) was utilized as an index for accuracy measure. The results demonstrated that probability distance strategies are more accurate than spatial distribution strategies. We conclude that this is because probability distance strategies captured crime patterns of residential burglars more precisely than spatial distribution strategies.</p>

著者

横田 賀英子 渡邉 和美 和智 妙子 大塚 祐輔 倉石 宏樹 藤田 悟郎

出版者

公益社団法人 日本心理学会

雑誌

心理学研究 (ISSN:00215236)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.86, no.3, pp.209-218, 2015

被引用文献数

3

---

The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to create an index for a behavioral linkage analysis of serial sex crimes, and second, to construct a predictive model for the analysis. Data on 720 sex crimes (rape, indecent assault) committed by 360 offenders arrested between 1993 and 2005 throughout Japan were collected. The following seven behaviors were examined during a series of analyses aimed at illustrating the effectiveness of crime linkage in serial sex crimes: victim age group, area type, publicness of offense site, weapon, time, contact method, and day of the week. The results indicated that six of the seven behaviors (excluding "day of the week") significantly distinguished between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Under a logistic regression of these six variables, which were dichotomously coded in terms of the concordance or discordance between each pair of incidents, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.82–0.87), indicating a high level of discriminative accuracy in identifying disparate sex crimes committed by the same person.