82 0 0 0 OA メディアが内閣支持に与える影響力とその時間的変化: 新聞社説の内容分析を媒介にして
- 著者
- 細貝 亮
- 出版者
- 日本メディア学会
- 雑誌
- マス・コミュニケーション研究 (ISSN:13411306)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.77, pp.225-242, 2010-07-31 (Released:2017-10-06)
- 参考文献数
- 25
- 被引用文献数
- 1
Some of recent media studies pointed out the increasing of media effect in politics and public opinion. In what meaning, why and how has the media effect increased? The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the time-varying effect of media coverage on the cabinet approval rate by analyzing aggregate time-series data. I examine two hypotheses about factors that increased the media effect on the cabinet support rate in Japan. Hypotheses I; the growth of floating voter, what is called on "mutouha", who are sensitive to political information made the media effect increase. Hypotheses II; Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi who used media for getting support of electorate make the media effect increase, what we call "the Koizumi effect". In examining the relation between the media coverage and the change of the cabinet support rate, I introduced "the sentence-final modality" model as the new method of the contents analysis. The method is used for specifying positive/negative information about prime minister or cabinet in editorials of newspapers and converting its information into positive/negative score. In addition, I adopt the recursive regression method for analyzing time-varying effect of media. I can acquire three findings. First, the positive/negative evaluations in media coverage make a clear effect on the cabinet support rate. Second, the media effect has been significant after 1993 when floating voter grew rapidly. Third, "the Koizumi effect" is not able to confirm in this analysis.
81 0 0 0 OA RDDによる世論調査の現状と課題
- 著者
- 細貝 亮
- 出版者
- 日本メディア学会
- 雑誌
- マス・コミュニケーション研究 (ISSN:13411306)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.94, pp.13-22, 2019-01-31 (Released:2019-06-06)
- 参考文献数
- 18
In 2016, media outlets began conducting dual-frame random digit dialing(RDD) surveys that sample mobile phone numbers in addition to the traditionaltargets with landline phone numbers. The resulting greater outreach to hitherto underrepresented youths and mobile-only users has improved the credibilityof polls. Still, new challenges have been identified with surveys targetingmobile phone users. Examples include a predominant share of males amongrespondents and the difficulty in ensuring validity of survey caused by inconsistencywith methods used for surveys that target only landline phone users.Unfortunately, there are no promising alternatives for opinion polling in caseRDD surveys grow difficult. Worse still, failures in predicting election resultsand mistrust of the media have dampened confidence in polls. Going forward,pollsters must gain people’s trust regarding opinion polls by properly explaininghow they are supposed to be conducted.
- 著者
- 細貝 亮
- 出版者
- 日本マス・コミュニケーション学会
- 雑誌
- マス・コミュニケーション研究 (ISSN:13411306)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- no.77, pp.225-242, 2010-07-31
Some of recent media studies pointed out the increasing of media effect in politics and public opinion. In what meaning, why and how has the media effect increased? The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the time-varying effect of media coverage on the cabinet approval rate by analyzing aggregate time-series data. I examine two hypotheses about factors that increased the media effect on the cabinet support rate in Japan. Hypotheses I; the growth of floating voter, what is called on "mutouha", who are sensitive to political information made the media effect increase. Hypotheses II; Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi who used media for getting support of electorate make the media effect increase, what we call "the Koizumi effect". In examining the relation between the media coverage and the change of the cabinet support rate, I introduced "the sentence-final modality" model as the new method of the contents analysis. The method is used for specifying positive/negative information about prime minister or cabinet in editorials of newspapers and converting its information into positive/negative score. In addition, I adopt the recursive regression method for analyzing time-varying effect of media. I can acquire three findings. First, the positive/negative evaluations in media coverage make a clear effect on the cabinet support rate. Second, the media effect has been significant after 1993 when floating voter grew rapidly. Third, "the Koizumi effect" is not able to confirm in this analysis.
1 0 0 0 全国紙の論調は極性化しているかー計量テキスト分析によるアプローチ
本研究の目的は、全国紙の論調の極性化現象について、その実態と進行メカニズムを明らかにすることである。近年、全国紙の論調の違いが以前よりも大きくなってきているとの指摘がしばしばなされるようになった。しかしながら、このような論調の極性化現象は、いつから、どの程度、どのような意味で進行していると言えるのか、検証が待たれているところである。本研究では、新聞記事の極性化の程度を示す「極性化指標」を提案し、これを各時代各争点の記事に適用することで、新聞論調の極性度の時代的変化を一貫した基準で記述するとともに、その進行メカニズムと発生条件の一端を解明することを目指す。