著者

水野 有智 石本 祐樹 酒井 奨 坂田 興

出版者

一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会

雑誌

エネルギー・資源学会論文誌 (ISSN:24330531)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.38, no.3, pp.11-17, 2017 (Released:2019-02-08)

参考文献数

19

被引用文献数

1

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This paper presents a cost analysis on hydrogen energy carrier supply chains using three different hydrogen energy carriers, such as liquefied hydrogen, ammonia, and organic hydrides (Toluene and Methylcyclohexane). An international supply chain from a foreign country to Japan by ship is the target of this analysis. The authors calculated hydrogen supply cost per 1 normal cubic meter in 2030 and 2050. For 2030 case, the cost, capacity, and efficiency of each facilities, which includes technological advancement to 2030, are summed up. For 2050 case, cost, capacity, and efficiency of facilities are assumed in order to realize the targeted cost 20 JPY/Nm3. The authors set comparable conditions among the carriers, calculated material and energy balances, assumed facilities in three supply chains, and got CAPEX and OPEX of the supply chains. As a result, the authors got two findings. Firstly, among three supply chains, there is small supply cost difference in both 2030 and 2050. Secondly, by comparing the supply costs of each carrier in 2030 and that of 2050, the authors found essential points of research and development; liquefaction, storage and shipping for liquefied hydrogen, composition and decomposition for ammonia, and dehydrogenation for organic hydrides.

著者

水野 有智 木下 裕介 福重 真一 梅田 靖

出版者

公益社団法人 精密工学会

雑誌

精密工学会学術講演会講演論文集 2014年度精密工学会秋季大会

巻号頁・発行日

pp.93-94, 2014-09-01 (Released:2015-03-01)

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本報では持続可能社会の実現に向けたシナリオ作成において,将来の産業の姿を定量的に描くために,経済分析などに用いられる産業連関表に基づく産業構造分析手法を提案する.本手法では,基準年の産業連関表に対してシナリオ内で設定された仮定を導入し,将来の産業連関表を構築することで将来の産業構造を定量化する.実行例として,先行研究にて作成された持続可能製造業シナリオに基づき,将来の日本の製造業の姿を定量化した.

著者

水野 有智 木下 裕介 和田 春菜 福重 真一 梅田 靖

出版者

公益社団法人 精密工学会

雑誌

精密工学会誌 (ISSN:09120289)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.78, no.9, pp.798-804, 2012

被引用文献数

1

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Developing scenarios is a hopeful approach for drawing visions and pathways of sustainable manufacturing toward sustainable society. Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator is an integrated design support environment that supports understanding, describing, and analyzing scenarios. This paper proposes a design support method of scenarios in 3S Simulator. Proposed method supports designing scenarios in forecasting manner, in which futures are explored starting from the present. We employ two-leveled causal networks for supporting scenario design in structuring ideas and describing the structured ideas into a scenario, by expressing the structure of the object world of the scenario. In the case study, we verified that the outlines and details of a scenario are deployed from the causal networks. Using 3S Simulator, the relationship between the causal networks and the descriptions of a scenario is clarified. This supports a designer to understand the scenario rationally. As the conclusion, proposed method supports designing scenarios in forecasting manner.

著者

大槻 貴司 尾羽 秀晃 川上 恭章 下郡 けい 水野 有智 森本 壮一 松尾 雄司

出版者

一般社団法人 電気学会

雑誌

電気学会論文誌B(電力・エネルギー部門誌) (ISSN:03854213)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.142, no.7, pp.334-346, 2022-07-01 (Released:2022-07-01)

参考文献数

53

被引用文献数

2

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This study investigated cost-effective energy mix for realizing net zero CO2 emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forest and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights area, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well-balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas-fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia-fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. Average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle-of-the-road assumptions. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO2 in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO2 in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.