著者

Yeyes Mulyadi Eiichi Kobayashi Nobukazu Wakabayashi Trika Pitana Wahyudi Eko Prasetyo

出版者

公益社団法人 日本船舶海洋工学会

雑誌

日本船舶海洋工学会論文集 (ISSN:18803717)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.20, pp.173-183, 2014 (Released:2015-02-26)

参考文献数

27

被引用文献数

2

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Recently, many subsea pipelines have been developed in busy port areas, including industrial ports, recreational areas, fishing areas, and other port facilities. Under busy ship traffic conditions, these subsea pipelines are likely to be exposed to the risk of damage by a dragged anchor or other dropped objects. In this paper, a model is proposed to estimate the dragged anchor accident frequency on subsea pipelines based on the concept introduced by Fujii. The proposed model is approached by estimating the number of dragged anchor candidates on subsea pipelines, Na, based on an analysis of the anchor stopping distance in a critical subsea pipeline area. The causation probability Pc is estimated using a Bayesian network method that is modified from the model of Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and Hanninen. Various factors are considered to estimate Pc, including the human factor, weather factor,technical factor, and support factor. Automatic Identification System (AIS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) data are combined to estimate the lateral probability distribution of the ship traffic around a subsea pipeline area. A case study of anchors dragging on the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait of Indonesia is performed to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed model. The proposed model is validated by comparing the results for the estimated dragged anchor accident frequency on the subsea pipeline using the proposed model with the actual accidents recorded in the Madura Strait. The results of this validation analysis show that there is reasonable agreement.

著者

西田 周平 西川 淳 大塚 攻 澤本 彰三 佐野 雅美 宮本 洋臣 MULYADI RUMENGAN Inneke FM YUSOFF Fatimah MD ROSS Othman BH SRINUI Khwanruan SATAPOOMIN Suree NGUYEN Thi Thu NGUYEN Cho CAMPOS Wilfredo L. METILLO Ephrime

出版者

東京大学

雑誌

基盤研究(B)

巻号頁・発行日

2010-04-01

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全海洋中で最も生物多様性が大きいが、人間活動や気候変動の影響も顕在化しつつある東南アジアの沿岸生態系を対象とし、動物プランクトンの種多様性に関する定量的知見を拡充した。既存試料の分類学的、遺伝学的、生態学的分析と補足的現地調査により、約20種の未知のカイアシ類を発見・記載し、既知種にも遺伝的に分化した隠蔽種が存在することを見いだした。また、既存の試・資料の分析・整理により新たに約16,000件の定量分布データを電子化した。ヤムシ類については、インド太平洋海域における種多様性の分布を明らかにするとともに、環境要因から種多様性(種数、多様度)を推定するためのモデルを作成・公表した。