- 著者
- Takeshi Horinouchi Taiga Mitsuyuki
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2023-008, (Released:2023-03-10)
- 被引用文献数
- 1
The use of massive sailing ships has been proposed as a means of acquiring renewable energy. It has also been proposed that such ships can be used to reduce the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). Here we propose a basis for evaluating the dynamical impacts of numerous sailing ships on the atmosphere. The key parameter is the total sail area per unit horizontal area (referred to as β), which is proportional to the number of ships in the region of interest. From β, the enhancement in the effective surface drag can be evaluated. The maximum potential intensity theory for TCs predicts that, under ideal environmental conditions, the steady-state TC intensity decreases inversely to the drag enhancement if the ship-induced change in the effective enthalpy transfer is much weaker. For example, if β is 0.04%, the potential intensity in terms of squared maximum wind can be decreased by around 10%. The effect of the directional drag from the use of aerodynamic lift in sail operations is also formulated, and its impact on TCs is evaluated by using a slab boundary-layer approximation. Sails' effects on air-sea interaction are briefly discussed, and further studies needed are envisioned.
- 著者
- Yoshio Kawatani Takeshi Horinouchi Naoki Sato
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2022-020, (Released:2022-05-19)
- 被引用文献数
- 1
Climate changes around Japan associated with upper troposphere and stratosphere responses of global warming during December-January-February were investigated using the storyline approach and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. Climate change was calculated by subtracting the 1959-1990 mean in historical simulations from the 2068-2099 mean in the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Four storylines in plausible future climates were discussed by considering two remote indices representing tropical amplification (tropical upper tropospheric temperature changes) and stratospheric vortex strength. Stratosphere-troposphere connections in terms of zonal wind responses are most pronounced in the storyline of high tropical amplification with strong stratospheric vortex in which the subtropical jet shifts substantially northward. The multimodel mean displays more (less) precipitation in the northern (southern) parts of Japan, while the storyline of high (low) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex shows increasing (decreasing) precipitation in most parts of Japan. Projected precipitation changes around Japan depend heavily on the storyline adopted and the degree of global warming in these two storylines. Alternatively, precipitation changes depend mostly on the overall strength of global warming with minor influences from storylines in the case of low (high) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex.
- 著者
- Takeshi Horinouchi Yu Kosaka Hiroshi Nakamigawa Hisashi Nakamura Norihisa Fujikawa Yukari N. Takayabu
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.17B, no.Special_Edition, pp.1-8, 2021 (Released:2021-06-01)
- 参考文献数
- 30
- 被引用文献数
- 14
A prolonged heavy rainfall event occurred in Kyushu in early July 2020. Its large-scale environmental factors are investigated with observational and reanalysis data. Seven-day precipitation and moisture flux convergence around Kyushu were the greatest among the last 30 years. This pronounced convergence was maintained by nearly steady moisture influx, and the persistent upper-level trough to the northwest enhanced the ratio of moisture convergence to the influx. The magnitude of instantaneous moisture flux, however, was not particularly large among those along the subtropical jet axis or the Meiyu-Baiu rainband. What made this event unique is the persistence of the moisture flux peak anchored around Kyushu under the influence of the Silk-Road teleconnection. In June 2020, three upper-level troughs, whose easternmost one corresponding to the aforementioned trough, tend to form along the subtropical Asian jet. This wave train was persistent in the month and lasted until mid-July, 2020. Our analysis suggests that, prior to the rainfall event, the Silk-Road teleconnection was intensified through an interaction with a wave train at subpolar latitudes, which involves nonlinear processes including trough cut-off.
- 著者
- Takeshi Horinouchi Yu Kosaka Hiroshi Nakamigawa Hisashi Nakamura Norihisa Fujikawa Yukari N. Takayabu
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2021-019, (Released:2021-04-28)
- 被引用文献数
- 14
A prolonged heavy rainfall event occurred in Kyushu in early July 2020. Its large-scale environmental factors are investigated with observational and reanalysis data. Seven-day precipitation and moisture flux convergence around Kyushu were the greatest among the last 30 years. This pronounced convergence was maintained by nearly steady moisture influx, and the persistent upper-level trough to the northwest enhanced the ratio of moisture convergence to the influx. The magnitude of instantaneous moisture flux, however, was not particularly large among those along the subtropical jet axis or the Meiyu-Baiu rainband. What made this event unique is the persistence of the moisture flux peak anchored around Kyushu under the influence of the Silk-Road teleconnection. In June 2020, three upper-level troughs, whose easternmost one corresponding to the aforementioned trough, tend to form along the subtropical Asian jet. This wave train was persistent in the month and lasted until mid-July, 2020. Our analysis suggests that, prior to the rainfall event, the Silk-Road teleconnection was intensified through an interaction with a wave train at subpolar latitudes, which involves nonlinear processes including trough cut-off.
- 著者
- Naoki Sato Takeshi Horinouchi Yoshio Kawatani
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.19, pp.78-85, 2023 (Released:2023-05-16)
- 参考文献数
- 24
Large-scale trends related to the precipitation in central Japan were investigated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. In the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 projections, surface temperature over central Japan increases by 1 to 4 K during the 21st century in most models. Focusing on the trend of surface-air temperature and precipitation in central Japan, these models were categorized into two groups: The precipitation significantly increases in 11 models (group A). On the other hand, the trends of precipitation are small in the remaining 20 models (group B). Analyses of high-frequency components based on daily data revealed that the difference in the precipitation prediction is associated with that in the storm activity around Japan. Relatively enhanced meridional surface-air temperature gradient in the subpolar region may contribute to reinforced storm activity. On the other hand, the zonal surface pressure gradient associated with the Siberian high and the Aleutian low is not strengthened in group A. The climatological wintertime monsoon does not appear to contribute to the difference of precipitation trend in central Japan between the two groups. Moreover, the influence of any other planetary-scale variations is not implied.
- 著者
- Yoshio Kawatani Takeshi Horinouchi Naoki Sato
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.18, pp.122-128, 2022 (Released:2022-06-16)
- 参考文献数
- 11
- 被引用文献数
- 1
Climate changes around Japan associated with upper troposphere and stratosphere responses of global warming during December-January-February were investigated using the storyline approach and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 dataset. Climate change was calculated by subtracting the 1959-1990 mean in historical simulations from the 2068-2099 mean in the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Four storylines in plausible future climates were discussed by considering two remote indices representing tropical amplification (tropical upper tropospheric temperature changes) and stratospheric vortex strength. Stratosphere-troposphere connections in terms of zonal wind responses are most pronounced in the storyline of high tropical amplification with strong stratospheric vortex in which the subtropical jet shifts substantially northward. The multimodel mean displays more (less) precipitation in the northern (southern) parts of Japan, while the storyline of high (low) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex shows increasing (decreasing) precipitation in most parts of Japan. Projected precipitation changes around Japan depend heavily on the storyline adopted and the degree of global warming in these two storylines. Alternatively, precipitation changes depend mostly on the overall strength of global warming with minor influences from storylines in the case of low (high) tropical amplification with strong (weak) stratospheric vortex.
- 著者
- Takeshi HORINOUCHI
- 出版者
- (公社)日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.92, no.6, pp.519-541, 2014 (Released:2015-01-29)
- 参考文献数
- 35
- 被引用文献数
- 4 38
This study provides an overall understanding of the summertime synoptic variability of precipitation and moisture transport at mid-latitude from the eastern coastal region of China to the northwestern Pacific. Using satellite precipitation and reanalysis data, a clear relationship is found between upper tropospheric disturbances (Rossby waves), surface precipitation, and lower tropospheric humidity through July and August. The upper tropospheric disturbances are characterized by the undulation of the 1.5 PVU contours of potential vorticity (PV) on the 350 K isentropic surfaces. Case studies suggest that a precipitation band of several hundred kilometers wide and a thousand to several thousand kilometers long is formed very frequently on the equatorward and low-PV side of the northernmost 1.5 PVU contours, which meander together around 40°N. Lower tropospheric specific humidity is also enhanced there, and it falls sharply to the north of these contours. The synoptic situations associated with it include, but are not limited to, a common situation in which moist convection is enhanced ahead of upper-level troughs. These results are confirmed by a composite analysis over the 12 summers from 2001. A novel method of analyzing the forcing of the quasi-geostrophic potential enstrophy, in which boundary contributions are incorporated, reveals that upper tropospheric disturbances in the area are propagated predominantly from the west along the Asian jet, and that they exert a significant forcing onto near-surface levels, while the upward forcing from near-surface levels to upper tropospheric disturbances is weak. A Q-vector analysis shows that the upwelling associated with the precipitation bands is forced predominantly by confluence. This process is frontogenetic, and surface fronts are often formed therein. The upwelling is enhanced by latent heating. The latitudinal extent of humid air masses is affected not only by this circulation but by low-level flows induced by upper-level disturbances in a cooperative manner.