- 著者
- Kozo Okamoto Hiromi Owada Tadashi Fujita Masahiro Kazumori Michiko Otsuka Hiromu Seko Yoshifumi Ota Naotaka Uekiyo Hiroshi Ishimoto Masahiro Hayashi Haruma Ishida Akiyoshi Ando Masaya Takahashi Kotaro Bessho Hironobu Yokota
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.16, pp.162-168, 2020 (Released:2020-09-05)
- 参考文献数
- 21
- 被引用文献数
- 14
To discuss the feasibility of the Himawari follow-on program, impacts of a hyperspectral sounder on a geostationary satellite (GeoHSS) is assessed using an observing system simulation experiment. Hypothetical GeoHSS observations are simulated by using an accurate reanalysis dataset for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan in 2018. The global data assimilation experiment demonstrates that the assimilation of clear-sky radiances of the GeoHSS improves the forecasts of the representative meteorological field and slightly reduces the typhoon position error. The regional data assimilation experiment shows that assimilating temperature and relative humidity profiles derived from the GeoHSS improves the heavy rainfall in the Chugoku region of western Japan as a result of enhanced southwesterly moisture flow off the northwestern coast of the Kyushu Island. These results suggest that the GeoHSS provides valuable information on frequently available vertically resolved temperature and humidity and thus improves the forecasts of severe events.
- 著者
- Satoru Yoshida Sho Yokota Hiromu Seko Tetsu Sakai Tomohiro Nagai
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.16, pp.43-50, 2020 (Released:2020-03-07)
- 参考文献数
- 19
- 被引用文献数
- 9
We conducted observation system simulation experiments (OSSE) to investigate the effects of water vapor vertical profiles observed by Raman lidar (RL) on forecasts of heavy precipitation in Hiroshima, Japan, on August 19, 2014 using a local ensemble transform Kalman filter. We employed a simulation result similar to reality as nature-run (NR) and performed two OSSEs. In the first experiment (DaQv), conventional observation data and vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio in air (qv) estimated from NR were assimilated. In the second experiment (CNTL), only conventional observation data were assimilated. In DaQv, we assumed that the RL was in the low-level inflow that supplied water vapor to the heavy precipitation in Hiroshima. Assimilating qv for several hours increased qv around the RL observation station, especially at low level. The regions modified by the assimilation of qv moved to Hiroshima by low-level inflow, resulting in 9-hour precipitation being approximately 28% greater than that of CNTL, and was thus closer to that of the NR. The OSSEs suggest that water vapor RL observations on the windward side of the heavy precipitation are a useful approach for improving precipitation forecasts.
- 著者
- Ken Sawada Naoko Seino Takuya Kawabata Hiromu Seko
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.19B, no.Special_Edition, pp.1-8, 2023 (Released:2023-03-10)
- 参考文献数
- 23
Considering urbanization effects on atmospheric states and subsequent precipitation is crucial to improve the accuracy of forecasting localized heavy rainfall around urban areas and to mitigate related disasters. For this purpose, it is effective to use a time development model that can accurately represent city-specific effects, such as urban heat island effect, in the assimilation process, and to assimilate high-frequency/high-density surface observation data that have not been used thus far. Therefore, this study incorporated a forecast model with an urban canopy scheme into an ensemble-based assimilation system and assimilated dense surface data from an Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System. Then, we performed analysis-forecast experiments for a heavy rain event in Tokyo metropolitan area on 30 August 2017, to examine the impact of urbanization. Our results showed that the urban scheme and surface observation improved near-surface temperature and moisture fields, thereby contributing to the formation of a clearer convergence line between the easterly and southerly winds where it was observed. Consequently, these improvements resulted in an earlier onset of rainfall and better reproduction of the heavy rainfall distribution.
- 著者
- Yasumitsu Maejima Takuya Kawabata Hiromu Seko Takemasa Miyoshi
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.18, pp.25-32, 2022 (Released:2022-03-07)
- 参考文献数
- 35
- 被引用文献数
- 6
This study investigates a potential impact of a rich phased array weather radar (PAWR) network covering Kyushu, Japan on numerical weather prediction (NWP) of the historic heavy rainfall event which caused a catastrophic disaster in southern Kumamoto on 4 July 2020. Perfect-model, identical-twin observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with 17 PAWRs are performed by the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with a regional NWP model known as the Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment-Regional Model (SCALE-RM) at 1-km resolution. The nature run is generated by running the SCALE-RM initialized by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale model (MSM) analysis at 1800 JST 3 July 2020, showing sustained heavy rainfalls in southern Kumamoto on 4 July. Every 30-second synthetic reflectivity and radial winds are generated from the nature run at every model grid point below 20-km elevation within 60-km ranges from the 17 PAWRs. Two different control runs are generated, both failing to predict the heavy rainfalls in southern Kumamoto. In both cases, assimilating the PAWR data improves the heavy rainfall prediction mainly up to 1-hour lead time. The improvement decays gradually and is lost in about 3-hour lead time likely because the large-scale Baiu front dominates.
- 著者
- Ken Sawada Naoko Seino Takuya Kawabata Hiromu Seko
- 出版者
- 公益社団法人 日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.19B-001, (Released:2023-02-13)
Considering urbanization effects on atmospheric states and subsequent precipitation is crucial to improve the accuracy of forecasting localized heavy rainfall around urban areas and to mitigate related disasters. For that purpose, it is effective to use a time development model that can accurately represent city-specific effects, such as urban heat island effect, in the assimilation process, and to assimilate high-frequency/high-density surface observation data that have not been used thus far. Therefore, this study incorporated a forecast model with an urban canopy scheme into an ensemble-based assimilation system and assimilated dense surface data from an Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System. Then, we performed analysis-forecast experiments for a heavy rain event in Tokyo metropolitan area on August 30, 2017, to examine the impact of urbanization. Our results showed that the urban scheme and surface observation improved near-surface temperature and moisture fields, thereby contributing to the formation of a clearer convergence line between the easterly and southerly winds where it was observed. Consequently, these improvements resulted in an earlier onset of rainfall and better reproduction of the heavy rainfall distribution.
- 著者
- Kozo Okamoto Hiromi Owada Tadashi Fujita Masahiro Kazumori Michiko Otsuka Hiromu Seko Yoshifumi Ota Naotaka Uekiyo Hiroshi Ishimoto Masahiro Hayashi Haruma Ishida Akiyoshi Ando Masaya Takahashi Kotaro Bessho Hironobu Yokota
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2020-028, (Released:2020-07-10)
- 被引用文献数
- 14
To discuss the feasibility of the Himawari follow-on program, impacts of a hyperspectral sounder on a geostationary satellite (GeoHSS) is assessed using an observing system simulation experiment. Hypothetical GeoHSS observations are simulated by using an accurate reanalysis dataset for a heavy rainfall event in western Japan in 2018. The global data assimilation experiment demonstrates that the assimilation of clear-sky radiances of the GeoHSS improves the forecasts of the representative meteorological field and slightly reduces the typhoon position error. The regional data assimilation experiment shows that assimilating temperature and relative humidity profiles derived from the GeoHSS improves the heavy rainfall in the Chugoku region of western Japan as a result of enhanced southwesterly moisture flow off the northwestern coast of the Kyushu Island. These results suggest that the GeoHSS provides valuable information on frequently available vertically resolved temperature and humidity and thus improves the forecasts of severe events.
- 著者
- Satoru Yoshida Sho Yokota Hiromu Seko Tetsu Sakai Tomohiro Nagai
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- pp.2020-008, (Released:2020-02-13)
- 被引用文献数
- 9
We conducted observation system simulation experiments (OSSE) to investigate the effects of water vapor vertical profiles observed by Raman lidar (RL) on forecasts of heavy precipitation in Hiroshima, Japan, on August 19, 2014 using a local ensemble transform Kalman filter. We employed a simulation result similar to reality as nature-run (NR) and performed two OSSEs. In the first experiment (DaQv), conventional observation data and vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio in air (qv) estimated from NR were assimilated. In the second experiment (CNTL), only conventional observation data were assimilated. In DaQv, we assumed that the RL was in the low-level inflow that supplied water vapor to the heavy precipitation in Hiroshima. Assimilating qv for several hours increased qv around the RL observation station, especially at low level. The regions modified by the assimilation of qv moved to Hiroshima by low-level inflow, resulting in 9-hour precipitation being approximately 28% greater than that of CNTL, and was thus closer to that of the NR. The OSSEs suggest that water vapor RL observations on the windward side of the heavy precipitation are a useful approach for improving precipitation forecasts.
- 著者
- Hiromu Seko Kazuo Saito Masaru Kunii Masayuki Kyouda
- 出版者
- (公社)日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.5, pp.57-60, 2009 (Released:2009-04-15)
- 参考文献数
- 11
- 被引用文献数
- 2 6 4
Energy Helicity Index (EHI), defined by the product of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH), is one of potential parameters to diagnose the possibility of tornado outbreak. In this study, probabilities that EHI exceed some criteria were examined with a mesoscale ensemble prediction system, whose grid interval was 15 km, in two tornado events in Japan (Nobeoka and Saroma tornado events). High probability regions (HPR, hereafter) of large SREH existed in the northeastern quadrants of a typhoon or a low-pressure system, while HPRs of large CAPE extended along the warm humid airflow from the Pacific Ocean. In the two events, the tornados were formed near HPRs of large EHI, where HPRs of large SREH and CAPE were overlapped. This result indicates the possibility of the probability forecast of the potential parameter for tornado outbreak.
1 0 0 0 OA ARPS Simulations of Convection during TOMACS
- 著者
- Augusto José PEREIRA FILHO Felipe VEMADO Kazuo SAITO Hiromu SEKO José Luis FLORES ROJAS Hugo Abi KARAM
- 出版者
- Meteorological Society of Japan
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.96A, pp.247-263, 2018 (Released:2018-05-17)
- 参考文献数
- 54
- 被引用文献数
- 5
The Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study (TOMACS) for extreme-weather-resilient cities is a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). TOMACS provided a multiplatform and high spatiotemporal resolution dataset for the present research on three episodes of deep convection in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under its heat island effect and sea breeze circulations. Heavy rainfall episodes of August 26, 2011, and July 23 and August 12, 2013, were simulated with (and without) the tropical town energy budget (T-TEB) model coupled with the advanced regional prediction system (ARPS). The T-TEB/ARPS system used initial and boundary conditions from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale analysis data for 24-hour integration runs at 5-km resolution over Japan and at 1-km resolution over TOMACS area. The 1-km resolution hourly rainfall field simulations were verified against the respective automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) rain gauge network measurements. Statistics of the Contingency tables were obtained to estimate the critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), and false alarm rate (FAR) as well as the root mean square error (RMSE). The T-TEB/ARPS simulations improved the south and east sea breeze circulations of TMA and its urban heat island effect. The time evolution of CSI scores improved within the advective time scale, whereas dissipation (phase) errors on precipitation RMSE increased with the integration time and were larger than the dispersion (amplitude) errors. The initial and boundary conditions of JMA greatly improved the simulations as compared to the previous ones performed with the outputs of NCEP's global forecast system as indicated by the TOMACS datasets. Thus, the results represent the temporal and spatial evolutions of the atmospheric conditions leading to the development of a deep convection within TOMACS region. Furthermore, TMA is a good testbed to evaluate the urban surface schemes, such as T-TEB in this study.
- 著者
- Masaru Kunii Michiko Otsuka Kazuki Shimoji Hiromu Seko
- 出版者
- (公社)日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- SOLA (ISSN:13496476)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.12, pp.209-214, 2016 (Released:2016-08-05)
- 参考文献数
- 21
- 被引用文献数
- 13
Himawari-8, a next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite that has been in operation since July 2015, incorporates significant improvements in resolution, scan frequency, and number of bands, bringing new capabilities to weather forecasting. By taking advantage of the availability of high-frequency data with high spatial resolution, an ensemble Kalman filter implemented with a mesoscale regional model assimilated rapid-scan atmospheric motion vectors (RS-AMVs) from Himawari-8. Data assimilation and ensemble forecast experiments were conducted for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in September 2015 in the Kanto and Tohoku regions of Japan. The results showed that the inclusion of RS-AMVs improved precipitation scores, especially for weak and moderate rainfall. In addition, the subsequent model forecast simulated successfully the band of heavy rainfall. Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts showed that when RS-AMVs were assimilated, the results captured the occurrence of torrential rainfall with a relatively high probability. The ensemble-based correlation analysis indicated that the strong rainfall was related to advection of moisture at low to mid levels and moisture flux convergence at lower levels. Simulations with a higher resolution model initialized by nested data assimilation showed that the assimilation of frequent RS-AMVs improved the forecast results.
- 著者
- Masanori OIGAWA Eugenio REALINI Hiromu SEKO Toshitaka TSUDA
- 出版者
- (公社)日本気象学会
- 雑誌
- 気象集誌. 第2輯 (ISSN:00261165)
- 巻号頁・発行日
- vol.92, no.3, pp.189-205, 2014 (Released:2014-07-04)
- 参考文献数
- 24
- 被引用文献数
- 4
A simulation study was conducted to investigate the retrieval of meso-γ scale precipitable water vapor (PWV) distribution with the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) using output from a non-hydrostatic model (JMA NHM). The evaluation was performed on PWV values obtained by simulating three different methods: using all GPS satellites above an elevation angle higher than 10° (PWVG) (conventional Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology method), using only the QZSS satellite at the highest elevation (PWVQ), and using only the GPS satellite at the highest elevation (PWVHG). The three methods were compared by assuming the vertically integrated water vapor amounts of the model as true PWV. As a result, the root mean square errors of PWVG, PWVQ, and PWVHG were 2.78, 0.13, and 0.59 mm, respectively, 5 min before the rainfall. The time series of PWVHG had a large discontinuity (˜ 2 mm) when the GPS satellite with the highest elevation changed, while that of PWVQ was small because the elevation at which the highest QZSS satellites change was much higher. The standard deviation of PWVQ was smaller than those of PWVG and PWVHG, which vary significantly depending on GPS satellite geometry. When the spatial distributions of PWVG and PWVQ were compared to the meso-γ scale distribution of the reference PWV, PWVG smoothed out the PWV fluctuations, whereas PWVQ captured them well, due to the higher spatial resolution achievable using only high-elevation slant paths. These results suggest that meso-γ scale water vapor fluctuations associated with a thunderstorm can be retrieved using a dense GNSS receiver network and analyzing PWV from a single high-elevation GNSS satellite. In this study, we focus on QZSS, since this constellation would be especially promising in this context, and it would provide nearly continuous PWV observations as its highest satellite changes, contrary to using the highest satellites from multiple GNSS constellations.