著者

Akihiko Shimpo Kazuto Takemura Shunya Wakamatsu Hiroki Togawa Yasushi Mochizuki Motoaki Takekawa Shotaro Tanaka Kazuya Yamashita Shuhei Maeda Ryuta Kurora Hirokazu Murai Naoko Kitabatake Hiroshige Tsuguti Hitoshi Mukougawa Toshiki Iwasaki Ryuichi Kawamura Masahide Kimoto Izuru Takayabu Yukari N. Takayabu Youichi Tanimoto Toshihiko Hirooka Yukio Masumoto Masahiro Watanabe Kazuhisa Tsuboki Hisashi Nakamura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15A, pp.13-18, 2019 (Released:2019-06-15)

参考文献数

22

被引用文献数

78

---

An extreme rainfall event occurred over western Japan and the adjacent Tokai region mainly in early July, named “the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018”, which caused widespread havoc. It was followed by heat wave that persisted in many regions over Japan in setting the highest temperature on record since 1946 over eastern Japan as the July and summertime means. The rain event was attributable to two extremely moist airflows of tropical origins confluent persistently into western Japan and large-scale ascent along the stationary Baiu front. The heat wave was attributable to the enhanced surface North Pacific Subtropical High and upper-tropospheric Tibetan High, with a prominent barotropic anticyclonic anomaly around the Korean Peninsula. The consecutive occurrence of these extreme events was related to persistent meandering of the upper-level subtropical jet, indicating remote influence from the upstream. The heat wave can also be influenced by enhanced summertime convective activity around the Philippines and possibly by extremely anomalous warmth over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude in July 2018. The global warming can also influence not only the heat wave but also the rain event, consistent with a long-term increasing trend in intensity of extreme precipitation observed over Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-029, (Released:2021-08-20)

被引用文献数

4

---

This study presents a possible large-scale factor of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, which is triggered by Rossby wave breaking to the east of Japan. More than half of the wave breaking cases is accompanied by the tropical cyclogenesis. Results from a composite analysis for the wave breaking cases indicate that the genesis and development of tropical cyclones are dominant over the southwest quadrant of the wave breaking center, where an intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity caused by the wave breaking and the consequent enhanced convection are seen. The number of tropical cyclones in the wave breaking cases exponentially increases in time during the developing stage of the wave breaking. The results of composite analysis further indicate that lower-level strong wind convergence and the associated enhanced convection, which are resulting from the wave breaking, is favorable conditions for the tropical cyclogenesis. An enhanced monsoon trough accompanied by the Pacific–Japan pattern resulting from the enhanced convection can regulate tracks of the tropical cyclones. These results show that the Rossby wave breaking can trigger the tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, through the southwestward intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity and the consequent enhanced convection.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa Shuhei Maeda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.125-129, 2021 (Released:2021-06-26)

参考文献数

18

被引用文献数

2

---

Rossby waves propagating along the Asian jet frequently cause the breaking near the jet exit region. This study examines characteristics of oceanographic condition and atmospheric circulation associated with interdecadal variability of Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan in August. Sea surface temperature during a period of the higher Rossby wave breaking frequency is cooler over the central part of the tropical North Pacific, compared with that during a period of the lower frequency. Convective activities are suppressed over the region consistent with the cooler sea surface temperature, contributing to an enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. Deceleration and diffluence of the Asian jet are stronger during the period of the higher frequency than that during the period of the lower one. The enhanced deceleration and diffluence of the jet are associated with the enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. The abovementioned dynamical influence is also shown by a numerical simulation using an atmospheric linear baroclinic model. These results indicate that the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature over the central part of the tropical North Pacific has an impact on that of the Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan, through the modulated convective activities and mid-Pacific trough.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa Yuhei Takaya Shuhei Maeda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18, pp.19-24, 2022 (Released:2022-02-11)

参考文献数

18

---

Seasonal predictability of summertime Asian jet deceleration near Japan is examined using monthly mean data of hindcasts based on an operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Interannual variabilities of the Asian jet deceleration averaged during July–August are generally well predicted with moderate to high forecast skill starting from initial months from January to June. The seasonal predictability of the Asian jet deceleration in specific years is, by contrast, limited with large forecast errors. An inter-member regression analysis for the forecast errors of the Asian jet deceleration using ensembles shows that the forecast errors of the Asian jet are associated with those of the Asian jet deceleration near Japan. Furthermore, the forecast errors of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related excessive upper-tropospheric divergence near Southeast Asia can account for the errors of the northward shifted Asian jet. The above-mentioned results indicate that more accurate seasonal prediction of ENSO can further improve the seasonal prediction skill of the Asian jet deceleration and summer climate near Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa Yuhei Takaya Shuhei Maeda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2022-004, (Released:2022-01-13)

---

Seasonal predictability of summertime Asian jet deceleration near Japan is examined using monthly mean data of hindcasts based on an operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Interannual variabilities of the Asian jet deceleration averaged during July–August are generally well predicted with moderate to high forecast skill starting from initial months from January to June. The seasonal predictability of the Asian jet deceleration in specific years is, by contrast, limited with large forecast errors. An inter-member regression analysis for the forecast errors of the Asian jet deceleration using ensembles shows that the forecast errors of the Asian jet are associated with those of the Asian jet deceleration near Japan. Furthermore, the forecast errors of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related excessive upper-tropospheric divergence near Southeast Asia can account for the errors of the northward shifted Asian jet. The above-mentioned results indicate that more accurate seasonal prediction of ENSO can further improve the seasonal prediction skill of the Asian jet deceleration and summer climate near Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17, pp.164-169, 2021 (Released:2021-09-25)

参考文献数

24

被引用文献数

4

---

This study presents a possible large-scale factor of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, which is triggered by Rossby wave breaking to the east of Japan. More than half of the wave breaking cases is accompanied by the tropical cyclogenesis. Results from a composite analysis for the wave breaking cases indicate that the genesis and development of tropical cyclones are dominant over the southwest quadrant of the wave breaking center, where an intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity caused by the wave breaking and the consequent enhanced convection are seen. The number of tropical cyclones in the wave breaking cases exponentially increases in time during the developing stage of the wave breaking. The results of composite analysis further indicate that lower-level strong wind convergence and the associated enhanced convection, which are resulting from the wave breaking, is favorable conditions for the tropical cyclogenesis. An enhanced monsoon trough accompanied by the Pacific–Japan pattern resulting from the enhanced convection can regulate tracks of the tropical cyclones. These results show that the Rossby wave breaking can trigger the tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific, through the southwestward intrusion of the upper-level potential vorticity and the consequent enhanced convection.

著者

Akihiko Shimpo Kazuto Takemura Shunya Wakamatsu Hiroki Togawa Yasushi Mochizuki Motoaki Takekawa Shotaro Tanaka Kazuya Yamashita Shuhei Maeda Ryuta Kurora Hirokazu Murai Naoko Kitabatake Hiroshige Tsuguti Hitoshi Mukougawa Toshiki Iwasaki Ryuichi Kawamura Masahide Kimoto Izuru Takayabu Yukari N. Takayabu Youichi Tanimoto Toshihiko Hirooka Yukio Masumoto Masahiro Watanabe Kazuhisa Tsuboki Hisashi Nakamura

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.15A-003, (Released:2019-05-17)

被引用文献数

78

---

An extreme rainfall event occurred over western Japan and the adjacent Tokai region mainly in early July, named “the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018”, which caused widespread havoc. It was followed by heat wave that persisted in many regions over Japan in setting the highest temperature on record since 1946 over eastern Japan as the July and summertime means. The rain event was attributable to two extremely moist airflows of tropical origins confluent persistently into western Japan and large-scale ascent along the stationary Baiu front. The heat wave was attributable to the enhanced surface North Pacific Subtropical High and upper-tropospheric Tibetan High, with a prominent barotropic anticyclonic anomaly around the Korean Peninsula. The consecutive occurrence of these extreme events was related to persistent meandering of the upper-level subtropical jet, indicating remote influence from the upstream. The heat wave can also be influenced by enhanced summertime convective activity around the Philippines and possibly by extremely anomalous warmth over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude in July 2018. The global warming can also influence not only the heat wave but also the rain event, consistent with a long-term increasing trend in intensity of extreme precipitation observed over Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19, pp.1-8, 2023 (Released:2023-01-01)

参考文献数

23

---

This study shows a possible mechanism of abnormal extension of North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) toward western and eastern Japan observed in late June 2022, when Japan experienced an unprecedented heat wave lasting more than a week. During the period, an upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation anomaly amplifies to the east of northern Japan associated with the Silk-Road pattern.  A diagnosis using quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) inversion shows that the lower-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies induced by the upper-level anticyclone are the primary factor in the generation of lower-level negative QGPV anomalies from mainland Japan to its south associated with the anomalous extension of the NPSH. The induced circulation causes the lower-level negative QGPV anomalies by upgradient horizontal advection of the climatological QGPV, which has a strong gradient from mainland Japan to its south associated with the Baiu frontal zone. The proposed mechanism well explains a peculiar vertical structure of the observed anticyclone near Japan.  A sensitivity diagnosis considering the sub-seasonal variation of the climatological lower-tropospheric QGPV distribution during summer indicates that the proposed NPSH extension mechanism toward Japan becomes most efficient from late June to early July, when the Baiu frontal zone is most enhanced near Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa

出版者

公益社団法人 日本気象学会

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2023-001, (Released:2022-11-29)

---

This study shows a possible mechanism of abnormal extension of North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) toward western and eastern Japan observed in late June 2022, when Japan experienced an unprecedented heat wave lasting more than a week. During the period, an upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation anomaly amplifies to the east of northern Japan associated with the Silk-Road pattern.  A diagnosis using quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) inversion shows that the lower-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies induced by the upper-level anticyclone are the primary factor in the generation of lower-level negative QGPV anomalies from mainland Japan to its south associated with the anomalous extension of the NPSH. The induced circulation causes the lower-level negative QGPV anomalies by upgradient horizontal advection of the climatological QGPV, which has a strong gradient from mainland Japan to its south associated with the Baiu frontal zone. The proposed mechanism well explains a peculiar vertical structure of the observed anticyclone near Japan.  A sensitivity diagnosis considering the sub-seasonal variation of the climatological lower-tropospheric QGPV distribution during summer indicates that the proposed NPSH extension mechanism toward Japan becomes most efficient from late June to early July, when the Baiu frontal zone is most enhanced near Japan.

著者

Kazuto Takemura Hitoshi Mukougawa Shuhei Maeda

出版者

Meteorological Society of Japan

雑誌

SOLA (ISSN:13496476)

巻号頁・発行日

pp.2021-021, (Released:2021-05-18)

被引用文献数

2

---

Rossby waves propagating along the Asian jet frequently cause the breaking near the jet exit region. This study examines characteristics of oceanographic condition and atmospheric circulation associated with interdecadal variability of Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan in August. Sea surface temperature during a period of the higher Rossby wave breaking frequency is cooler over the central part of the tropical North Pacific, compared with that during a period of the lower frequency. Convective activities are suppressed over the region consistent with the cooler sea surface temperature, contributing to an enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. Deceleration and diffluence of the Asian jet are stronger during the period of the higher frequency than that during the period of the lower one. The enhanced deceleration and diffluence of the jet are associated with the enhanced and southwestward extended mid-Pacific trough. The abovementioned dynamical influence is also shown by a numerical simulation using an atmospheric linear baroclinic model. These results indicate that the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature over the central part of the tropical North Pacific has an impact on that of the Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan, through the modulated convective activities and mid-Pacific trough.