著者

BEHRENS Kristian KANEMOTO Yoshitsugu MURATA Yasusada

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-26, 2016-12

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Extant studies take it for granted that there is a one-to-one mapping from a change in the equilib- rium allocation to a change in welfare. We show that such a premise does not apply to fairly standard mod- els of monopolistic competition. For any change in the equilibrium allocation, there exist an infinite number of possible welfare changes when the mass of varieties consumed differs between the two equilibria. Our re- sults thus reveal a fundamental difficulty in measuring welfare changes when varieties are endogenous.

著者

CHEN Stacey H. CHEN Yen-Chien LIU Jin-Tan

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-20, 2016-10

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Parents preferring sons tend to go on to have more children until a boy is born, and to concentrate investment in boys for a given number of children (sibsize). Thus, having a brother may affect child education in two ways: an indirect effect by keeping sibsize lower and a direct rivalry effect where sibsize remains constant. We estimate the direct and indirect effects of a next brother on the first child’s education conditional on potential sibsize. We address endogenous sibsize using twins. We find new evidence of sibling rivalry and gender bias that cannot be detected by conventional methods.

著者

細江 宣裕

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-12, 2016-08

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英国の欧州連合(European Union, EU)離脱の影響を2種類の応用一般均衡(computable general equilibrium, CGE)モデル—規模に関して収穫一定の従来型モデルと、企業の異質性と規模の経済を考慮したMelitz型のモデル—を用いて分析する。EU離脱後に再設定される貿易障壁によって、英国と英国以外のEU諸国間の貿易は大きく落ち込む。規模に関して収穫一定のモデルを用いると、英国はわずかな経済厚生上の利益、または、損失を被ることが予想されるが、規模の経済のあるモデルを用いた場合には、無視できない規模の損失が発生することがわかる。その損失は、英国がEU離脱から得られる便益の中での最大と期待されているEUへの財政拠出金の金額と同程度に達する。英国の産業は、とくに繊維・衣料、鉄鋼・金属製品、自動車・輸送機械部門において、大きく輸出を減らすことを通じて生産を減少させる。

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-07, 2016-06

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This paper argues that global value chains (GVCs) have transformed bilateral trade relations into multilateral and value added approach is needed to accurately measure the contribution of trade to economic growth and bilateral trade balances. Under GVCs, the impact of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances have been weakened and technological innovations may not necessarily increase domestic employment. The challenges associated with the emergence of GVCs require an in-depth understanding of modern international trade, which in turn calls for new modes of thinking and new theories. For developing countries, focusing on specific segments of GVCs and upgrading industrial capacity along value chains could be an alternative path of industrialization.

著者

LUINTEL Kul B KHAN Mosahid LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto LI Guangjie

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-27, 2016-03

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The existing weight of evidence suggests that financial structure (the classification of a financial system as bank-based versus market-based) is irrelevant for economic growth. This contradicts the common belief that the institutional structure of a financial system matters. We re-examine this issue using a novel dataset covering 69 countries over 1989-2011 in a Bayesian framework. Our results are conformable to the belief - a market-based system is relevant - with sizable economic effects for the high-income but not for the middle-and-low-income countries. Our findings provide a counterexample to the weight of evidence. We also identify a regime shift in 2008.

著者

MENG Channarith LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-22, 2016-01

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While earlier studies focus on credit booms in advanced and emerging market countries, this paper examines the characteristics and determinants of credit booms in developing countries. The results find that credit booms in developing countries are less likely to be associated with systemic banking crises. Rather, they are more likely to be the result of financial deepening than of dangerous buildups of financial risks; the prevention of credit booms in developing countries may thus be associated with higher opportunity costs in terms of foregone growth opportunities. Random effect probit and tobit regressions find some evidence that size of financial system and favorable macroeconomic conditions are among the determinants of credit booms. Although monetary and fiscal policies do not help in preventing credit booms in developing countries, we find that prudential regulations and supervision can play a much more effective role in preventing “bad” booms, while incurring substantially lower costs. Although “bad” booms are hard to identify ahead of time, the duration and size of booms, as well as the level of credit aggregates, appear to be useful indicators in determining them.

著者

LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-17, 2015-10

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This paper develops a novel and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference in inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility models. It is shown that by conditioning on auxiliary variables, it is possible to sample all the volatilities jointly directly from their posterior conditional density, using simple and easy to draw from distributions. Furthermore, this paper develops a generalized inverse Gamma process with more fl‡exible tails in the distribution of volatilities, which still allows for simple and efficient calculations. Using several macroeconomic and fi…nancial datasets, it is shown that the inverse Gamma and Generalized inverse Gamma processes can greatly outperform the commonly used log normal volatility processes with student-t errors.

著者

ARAI Yoichi ICHIMURA Hidehiko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-13, 2015-09

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A new bandwidth selection method for the fuzzy regression discontinuity estimator is proposed. The method chooses two bandwidths simultaneously, one for each side of the cut-off point by using a criterion based on the estimated asymptotic mean square error taking into account a second-order bias term. A simulation study demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

著者

WIE Dainn LEE Hanol

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-12, 2015-08

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The fraction of marriages between South Korean males and brides from other Asian countries has sharply increased since 1990 reaching around 10% of new marriages in 2005. We employ a large data set collected in 2012 to investigate the impact of citizenship acquisition of these brides on their bargaining power in the household and labor market. We employ propensity score matching using detailed information of brides, their spouses, and households required for nationality application. Our results show that legal entitlement of marriage immigrants raises the chance of being hired as a regular worker and increases decision power in a household. The findings in this paper imply that a legal framework is an important determinant of the bargaining power of immigrants in the labor market and households.

著者

HASEGAWA Makoto KIYOTA Kozo

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-09, 2015-06

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In an increasingly globalized world, the design of international tax systems in terms of taxation on foreign corporate incomes has received much attention from policymakers and economists alike. In the past, Japan's worldwide tax system taxed foreign source income upon repatriation. However, to stimulate dividend repatriations from Japanese-owned foreign affiliates, Japan introduced a foreign dividend exemption in 2009 that exempts dividends remitted by Japanese-owned foreign affiliates to their parent firms from home taxation. This paper examines the effect of this dividend exemption on profit repatriations by Japanese multinationals. We find that the response of Japanese-owned affiliates to the dividend exemption was heterogeneous. More particularly, foreign affiliates with a large stock of retained earnings were generally more responsive to the reform and significantly increased dividend payments to their parent firms in response to the enactment of the dividend exemption system. Dividend payments by these affiliates also became more sensitive to withholding tax rates on dividends levied by host countries under the new exemption system.

著者

TONE Kaoru

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-05, 2015-05

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Slacks-based measure (SBM) (Tone (2001), Pastor et al. (1999)) has been widely utilized as a representative non-radial DEA model. In Tone (2010), I developed four variants of the SBM model where main concerns are to search the nearest point on the efficient frontiers of the production possibility set. However, in the worst case, a massive enumeration of facets of polyhedron associated with the production possibility set is required. In this paper, I will present a new scheme for this purpose which requires a limited number of additional linear program solutions for each inefficient DMU. Although the point thus obtained is not always the nearest point, it is acceptable for practical purposes and from the point of computational loads.

著者

IKEDA Shin S.

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-04, 2015-05

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Historical data of system prices and traded quantities of electricity over the 48 half-hour intra-daily intervals in the Japan Electric Power Exchange are analyzed. Viewed as a panel dataset of the 48 different commodities in 7 different markets (days of a week) or 336 different contracts over 288 weeks, the data allow me to compute two representative measures of illiquidity, namely, Amihud's price-impact measure and Roll's implied spread cost measure from November 2006 to April 2012. These measures are based on the absolute weekly returns of each of 336 contracts divided by the corresponding volume of traded electricity, and on the first-order serial covariance of weekly returns, respectively. Two measures closely comove but they contribute to the returns in different magnitudes, suggesting that each of them captures both common and distinctive aspects of illiquidity in the JEPX market. Once the lagged returns are controlled for in a dynamic panel framework, the influence of price-impact measures on returns dominate that of spread measures. The price-impact measure and traded volume contribute the return variations in opposite signs, i.e., positively and negatively. It suggests that the assessment of illiquidity requires a careful treatment of these confounding factors.

著者

HUANG Michael C. HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-01, 2015-04

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We investigate a long-run impact of a compound disaster in northern Taiwan by describing a recovery process from the disaster with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. After simulating losses of capital and labor in combination with a nuclear power shutdown, we conduct policy experiments that are aimed at recovery of Taiwan’s major industries by subsidizing their output or capital use. We found that the semiconductor industry could recover but need a huge amount of subsidies while the electronic equipment sector could almost recover even without subsidies. Capital-use subsidies would cost less than output subsidies. When we use two-year longer duration for a recovery program of semiconductors, we could save the subsidy costs by 7–10%.