著者

KAWASAKI Kenichi

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-05, 2018-06

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The US imposed US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in March 2018. An estimate of the economic impact of tariff hikes made using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, incorporating a dynamic capital formation mechanism, indicates that US import tariffs could protect the relevant US sectors but would have a negative impact on the US economy at the macro level. This key policy finding could not be attributed to the conventional framework of fixed labor in a CGE model. Also, a sensitivity analysis using a CGE model indicates that international capital movements would differentiate the impact of tariff hikes among countries. Trade deficits themselves would not necessarily be of much concern given the somewhat compensatory benefits of international capital inflows. On the other hand, possible capital outflows could exaggerate the adverse effects of tariff hikes. It is estimated here that for an import tariff hike of one percentage point worldwide, global trade would decrease by around 1.7 per cent and global GDP would decrease by around 0.2 per cent. It is of concern that emergent protectionism would reduce the growth of both global trade and the global economy.

著者

FUNK Patricia LITSCHIG Stephan

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-14, 2018-02

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This paper investigates whether the form of the legislative institution - assembly versus parliament - affects the level and composition of local public expenditure. We use two research designs in distinct samples of Swiss communes. Our event study analysis focuses on medium-sized and mostly German-speaking communes that switched from assembly to parliament from 1945 to 2010. The regression discontinuity analysis is based on small communes from a French-speaking canton over the period 1986-2005 and exploits a cutoff in local population. Event study estimates suggest that parliament adoption increases total spending by about 6 percent and that this increase is driven mostly by general administration and education spending. In contrast, regression discontinuity estimates are too noisy to be informative. To understand the mechanism at play, we run a survey among assembly participants and document a sizeable under-representation of 20- to 40-year-olds as well as of women in assemblies compared to both the electorate and to voters. Switching from assembly democracy to parliament in our setting therefore seems to increase the representation of two demographics that are known for their relatively strong preferences for education spending.

著者

ACHARYA Chakra Pani LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-13, 2018-02

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Despite a large growth in domestic and international migration and remittances in recent decades, there are limited works that systematically identify and establish interactions between internal and international migration. Using primary data from new urban areas of Nepal, we identify households that had migrated from rural to urban areas, explore their migration practices and educational investment behaviors, and analyze the effects of international migration and remittances on investment in education. The results show that, despite their lower income and consumption, migrant households that have members abroad have higher human capital investment measured by the level and budget share of expenditure on children’s education and the time their children spend for studying at home than do urban-native and other types of migrant households. Our findings suggest that searching for better education is one important motivation for migrating to urban areas among rural households having members abroad.

著者

HOSSAIN Sharif M. HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-10, 2017-10

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Bangladesh, being a labor-abundant country, benefits from foreign direct investment (FDI) as it is considered as a supplement to domestic investment for this capital-scarce economy. We examine how the benefits of increased FDI in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector are transmitted and shared among households with different characteristics, and the appropriate government policies to mitigate adverse distributional problems, if any, created from the increased FDI. To address these issues, we develop a computable general equilibrium model for Bangladesh that describes competition between local firms and multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the RMG sector and the distributional impacts of FDI among households. Our simulation results demonstrate that an increase in FDI promotes both output and exports in the RMG sector. However, because of the competition between MNEs and domestic firms, the output of domestic firms would fall slightly. Scrutinizing the welfare effects among household groups, we find that the benefits of FDI-induced growth would affect all household groups unevenly. We also demonstrate that the benefits could be shared equitably among household groups with skill development programs targeted at the adversely affected household groups.

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-06, 2017-08

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More and more American multinational corporations (MNCs) are outsourcing the production and assembly of their products to foreign companies. When they do so, they derive the largest share of their revenue from the intellectual property embedded in core technological innovation and brand names. However, conventional trade statistics are compiled based on the value of goods crossing national borders, as declared to customs. Generally, the value added associated with intellectual property rights and embedded in physical goods is not recorded as either export or import of any country. Hence, current trade statistics greatly underestimate US exports and substantially exaggerate its trade deficit. In this paper, we use the case of Apple, the largest American consumer products company, to illustrate the failure of conventional trade statistics to report actual US export capacity in the age of global value chains. According to our analysis of this case, if the value added of Apple intellectual property sold to foreign consumers were counted as part of US exports, total US exports would increase by 3.7%, and its trade deficit would decrease by 7.5%. In terms of bilateral trade, the value added under examination here would lower the US trade deficit with the Greater China region by 6.7% and that with Japan by 9.1%.

著者

TSENG Fu-Min PETRIE Dennis LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.14, 2014-09

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経済学 / EconomicsBereavement is a grieved and inevitable event in our life. For an aging society, the incidence of spousal bereavement and parental bereavement is higher than the other kinds of bereavement events. This study employs the difference-in-differences (DiD) strategy and the Taiwanese panel Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly (SHLSE) to evaluate the impact of losing a spouse on well-being measured by self-assessed health status, depression, and life satisfaction.The results show that spousal bereavement causes substantial depression and loss in life satisfaction. The spousal bereavement impact increases depression by 1.46 CES-D points and reduces life satisfaction by 0.71 points. The decay effect of time is not observed in this study. We also examine the demographic differences of the spousal bereavement impact and find that the gap in life satisfaction between the bereaved who received more than 9 years education and the bereaved who received 9 years or less is 1.43 points, which implies that spousal bereavement causes less impact on more educated people in terms of life satisfaction. The increase in depression for the bereaved in a larger household is smaller than that for those in a small household by 2.75 CES-D points but it is weakly significant.The self-reported health outcomes are the intermediate outcomes between spousal bereavement and societal costs such as healthcare utilisation and death. The association between self-reported health status and mortality and health utilization has been well documented by literature. Thus, our results also provide the policy insight that giving proper interventions on the onset of bereavement may cause less societal costs afterwards.http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto/

著者

丸茂 雄一

出版者

GRIPS Policy Information Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, 2009-10-19

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米軍飛行場周辺に居住する住民から、数次にわたり基地騒音訴訟が提起されている。本稿は、損害賠償請求(過去分)を検討する過程において論点となる飛行場の「公共性」の評価と「危険への接近の法理」について着目し、判例の動向を分析するものである。米軍飛行場の有する「公共性」に関する近年の判例に共通する認識は、①公共用飛行場と同程度であるとか、②受忍限度を判断する際の一要素に過ぎないというものである。損害賠償請求訴訟において、被告国は「公共性」を過度に強調することはできない。「危険への接近の法理」は、2つに区分される。国が損害賠償を免責される「免責の法理としての危険への接近」の適用については、周辺住民が違法状態を利用して損害賠償を請求するような、周辺住民が特に非難されるべき事情がある場合に限られるであろう。一方、国の損害賠償額が減額される「減額の法理としての危険への接近」を適用については、第五次~第七次横田騒音訴訟控訴審判決が厳しく指摘するように、①米軍飛行場の違法状態が継続し、②最高裁判決後においても違法状態を国が放置していることを考慮すると、国が今後抜本的な騒音対策を施さない限り、裁判所が損害賠償額の減額を認定することはないだろう。

著者

BOOYSEN Frederik MOLOI Tshepo MUNRO Alistair GUVURIRO Sevias CAMPHER Celeste

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-29, 2017-01

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Altruism is one of the single most important social preferences driving human behaviour. In Psychology experiments, the Social Discounting Task is employed as a measure of altruism. A conventional laboratory experiment was conducted with 117 undergraduate students, with students randomly assigned to complete an incentivized and un-incentivized Social Discounting Task. In accordance with the 1/d law of giving, the results exhibit the expected inverse relationship between social distance and altruism. There is weak evidence that incentivizing the Social Discounting Task impacts the measurement of altruism in a student population. More specifically, subjects are more altruistic when incentivized, possibly due to enforced reciprocity. At the same time, making payments real influence the identity of the target recipients: paying makes subjects more likely to choose people who are physically and psychologically close at high ranks, and more likely to report greater physical and psychological distance to subjects at lower ranks. Further research is required to verify the robustness of this result. The study also shows that among students family members are more altruistic toward each other as are those exhibiting greater intergenerational solidarity. Preferences for altruism in this student population is no different from WEIRD subject populations.

著者

KAWASAKI Kenichi

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-27, 2017-01

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地域統合の動向には深刻な不確実性が高まっている。英国は、EUからの離脱を決定した。米国の新大統領は環太平洋パートナーシップ(TPP)からの撤退に言及してきた。本論文の主な目的は、応用一般均衡世界貿易モデルを用いて、地域貿易協定(RTA)の代替的なシナリオの経済効果を定量的に比較することである。米国は、TPPから撤退すると、裨益しないばかりか、損失を被る可能性も推計される。日本との2国間の自由貿易協定(FTA)及び経済連携協定(EPA)の効果はTPPよりも小さくなる。中国やメキシコに対する米国の高い関税の課税は、中国、メキシコばかりか米国の経済厚生を著しく損なう。中国の東アジア地域包括的経済連携(RCEP)からの便益は、合意内容によっては、米国の関税の影響に比べて相対的に限られたものとなる。英国は、EUからの離脱によって損失を被るが、EU離脱のコストは、TPP参加の便益に比べて小さくなる可能性がある。総じて、関税削減に比べて、非関税措置(NTM)削減による所得効果はより大きなものとなることが示される。より大きな経済的な便益を享受するため、RTAの高い水準を達成する最善の努力が世界的に行われることが勧められる。

著者

LEE Jong-Wha WIE Dainn

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-25, 2016-12

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This study analyzes how changes in overall wage inequality and gender-specific factors affected the gender wage gap in Chinese and Indian urban labor markets in the 1990s and 2000s. Analysis of micro data present that contrasting evolutionary patterns in gender wage gap emerged over the period, showing a widened wage gap in China but a dramatically reduced gap in India. In both countries, female workers’ increased skill levels contributed to reducing the gender wage gap. However, increases in observed prices of education and experience worked unfavorably for high-skilled women, counterbalancing their improvement in labor market qualifications. Decomposition analyses show that China’s widened gap was attributable to gender-specific factors such as deteriorated observable and unobservable labor market qualifications and increased discrimination, especially against low- and middle-skilled female workers. For India, gender-specific factors and relatively high wage gains of low- and middle-skilled workers reduced the male–female wage gap.

著者

ARAI SEIKO

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-18, 2016-10

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This paper analyzes the capability of Japanese and European multinational companies (MNCs) to absorb technological knowledge from the United States through their R&D operation in the US. Employing the notion of “absorptive capacity”, this research defines the capability of a firm to absorb technological knowledge from abroad as “absorptive capability (AC),” and aims to examine the components of AC and their interrelationships using patent and sales data in the context of R&D management of Japanese and European MNCs at home and in the US. This paper also presents the taxonomies to show that a balance of autonomy and control is the key to increasing AC in the US and contributing to the US market sales by utilizing the home and host country technologies.

著者

KIKKAWA Aiko OTSUKA Keijiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-13, 2016-08

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Using unique data on rural households in Bangladesh for the period 2000–2014, this study aims to explore whether the socio-economic characteristics of the beneficiary households of international migration have changed over time. Our analysis shows that household education and asset levels are important determinants of international migration, particularly in earlier years. We also find that less educated and less wealthy households did take part in migration, albeit slowly, in recent time. In addition, social network facilitating migration within community is a key contributor to migration, but its predictive power declines over time. These findings suggest that entry barriers to international migration, resulting from paucity of financial, human and social capital endowment, have decreased over time. We also explore possible causes for such changes, including persistent demand for low-skilled workers in major destination countries, increasing domestic demand for educated workers, and increasing access to loans and grants to finance migration.

著者

武田 文男 竹内 潔 水山 高久 池谷 浩

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-05, 2016-06

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平成24・25年の災害対策基本法改正は,制定以来の大改正であり,改正法等の適切な運用を図るため自治体に求められる実務的課題は多いのではないかと考えている。災害対策基本法等の主たる運用を担う自治体における実務的課題等について,関係自治体の現状や取組み,認識等の実態を明らかにし,今後のあるべき対応を提言するものである。

著者

IKEDA Shin S.

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-03, 2016-06

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I construct data on the numbers of workers and suicide victims in their working ages in Japan from 1980 to 2010 for each of 10 occupation classes and for males and females separately. I document a complex transition of the job profiles of occupation classes, and establish a correspondence between Japanese and international job classifications. Four general characteristics of occupation-wise suicide risk in Japan emerge from graphical analyses of constructed data. First, heterogeneous aging patterns of suicide deaths and numbers of workers create complex aging patterns of suicide rates. Second, the age-adjustment and stabilizations of suicide rates are crucial for an accurate measurement and a fair comparison of suicide risk for workers in each occupation or over the entire economy. Third, the surge of overall suicide risk in Japan since 1998 might be driven by that in few occupations for each gender. Particularly, (a) a high suicide-risk profiles for male workers in agricultural, forestry and fishery and jobless categories has been stable over time, hence not a main culprit of such surge, and (b) less informative patterns of female suicide rates may be a consequence of the cancellations of higher suicide risk in some occupations and lower suicide risk in any other occupations during such surge. Fourth, gender- and occupation-wise pattern of suicide risk is further confounded with heterogeneity across regions.

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-01, 2016-04

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This study investigates the impacts of rising wages and the appreciation of the yuan on the structure of China’s exports. China’s exports are classified here as ordinary exports (OE) and two distinctive groups of processing exports, pure assembly exports (PAE) and mixed assembly exports (MAE). The data analyzed here are derived from panel data covering China’s bilateral PAE and MAE trade with more than 100 trading partners from 1993 to 2013. Estimates of fixed effect models show that wage increases and the appreciation of the yuan reduced the proportion of assembly exports in China’s bilateral exports. Specifically, for a 1% increase in Chinese manufacturing wages, the share of PAE in China’s bilateral exports is expected to fall 1.6 percentage points and that of MAE to decrease by 1.1 percentage points; a 1% nominal appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar would be expected to lower PAE and MAE trade volume by 2.4 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively. The empirical results imply that rising wages and cumulative appreciation of the yuan have eroded China’s comparative advantage in the assembly of products for international markets, resulting in substantial contraction of processing exports. The analysis provides a supply-side explanation for the fall of China’s export growth.

著者

MARUYAMA Akiko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-26, 2016-03

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This study analyzes a two-sided search model in which agents are vertically heterogeneous and agents on one side do not know their own type. Agents with imperfect self-knowledge update their beliefs based on the offers or rejections they receive from others. The results presented in this paper are as follows. An agent with imperfect self-knowledge lowers his or her reservation level if the agent receives a rejection that leads him or her to revise belief downward. However, an agent with imperfect self-knowledge does not raise his or her reservation level even if the agent receives an offer that leads to revise his or her belief upward. As a result, an agent with imperfect self-knowledge has the highest reservation level when he or she has just entered the market, and then a series of meetings gradually lowers his or her reservation level through the duration of the search.

著者

UMETANI Kenji YOKOYAMA Tadashi

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-21, 2015-12

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The mono-polar concentration of population in Tokyo has been intensifying steadily in Japan since the mid-1990s. This demographic movement stands in sharp contrast to the tri-polar (Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya) demographic movement in the high growth era before the oil crisis of the early 1970s. Mono-polar in-migration reflects the change in industrial structure after the rapid yen appreciation and the two decades of stagnation caused by the bubble burst in an atmosphere of demographic aging and declining birth rate. One noteworthy recent feature of the population inflow into Tokyo is the increasing inflow of young females with post-secondary education, leading to even gloomier economic and social prospects in most outlying regions. This economic externality should be dealt with by means of well-designed policies which, benefitting from the experience of events several decades ago, avoid throttling the benefits of the market mechanism.

著者

MUNYEGERA Ggombe Kasim MATSUMOTO Tomoya

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-20, 2015-12

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Over 35 percent of the adult use mobile money services in 2014, just five years since its inception in Uganda. Using household survey data covering 820 rural households, we examine the effect of this financial innovation on their financial behavior. We find that adopting mobile money services significantly increases the likelihood of saving, borrowing and receiving remittances due to reduction in transaction cost. The amount of savings, credit and remittances is also significantly higher among user households than non-users. To illustrate the importance of service proximity, we show that reducing the distance to the nearest mobile money agent boosts the frequency of using mobile money services. Our results are robust to specification changes and alternative explanations.

著者

MANANG Fredrick YAMAUCHI Chikako

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-19, 2015-12

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Maternal and child mortality remains high in developing countries. While timely antenatal care and delivery at formal facility are recommended, many mothers do not use them. This paper investigates whether newly established health facilities affect maternal health care utilization as well as the health of mothers and children. In order to deal with possibly endogenous facility placement, we apply the community-level and mother-level fixed effects models to the new, decade-long panel data from rural Uganda. Results demonstrate differential roles played by large facilities and small clinics. Openings of large facilities increase the probability of delivery at formal facility, attended by trained personnel. This is accompanied by an increased use of inexpensive transportation modes such as walking and own bicycle to delivery places. Weak evidence is also found for reduced degree of selective infant survival. New community-level clinics, on the other hand, increase regular antenatal care usage and reduce complications during delivery. These results suggest that accessible clinics help pregnant mothers to avoid preventable problems through early diagnosis of risky cases and/or treatment of existing diseases. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of providing good access to health facilities, in particular to community-level clinics, in order to promote the utilization of maternal care and improve maternal and infant health.

著者

ARAI Yoichi

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-11, 2015-08

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We propose a generalized version of the RESET test for linearity in regressions with I(1) processes against various nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. The proposed test statistic for linearity is given by the Wald statistic and its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis is shown to be a X^2 distribution with a "leads and lags" estimation technique. We show that the test is consistent against a class of nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size is close to the nominal one and the test succeeds in detecting both nonlinearity and no cointegration.