著者

KIDOKORO Yukihiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.15-08, 2015-06

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Although discrete choice models are well suited to describing the demand structure of differentiated goods, two important problems remain unsolved in their application. First, the total demand for a choice set is exogenously fixed. Second, multiple categories of goods cannot be handled in an unrestrictive way. In this paper, we address these flaws by formulating a complete utility maximization problem that is consistent with discrete choice models and derive the implications for applied research. We then apply the results to the ketchup and mayonnaise markets and investigate the differences arising from the consideration of multiple categories of goods.

著者

SY Deborah Kim HOSOE Nobuhiro 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.22-08, 2022-06

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Minimum wage is used as a support for low-wage workers, but it is expected to increase unemployment and cause deterioration of the welfare of the unemployed. While earlier studies identify negative side effects of minimum wage, that may not be the case in the Philippines, where many workers migrate and send home large remittances. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine the impacts of an increase in the domestic minimum wage on unemployment, migration, and output, as well as on welfare and inequality, in the Philippines. Our simulation results show that a minimum wage increase would indeed reduce domestic labor demand and prompt many unemployed workers to migrate out, leaving relatively few unemployed at home. While an increased volume of remittances would improve household welfare, it would also have some unintended effects, such as currency appreciation; decreased domestic production in labor-intensive and export-oriented industries; greater income disparity; and tax base erosion.

著者

増山 幹高 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.22-05, 2022-05

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国会審議には会議録に含まれない様々な情報がある.本稿では,文字情報に偏ってきた国会審議や立法過程に対する従来のアプローチから脱し,音声や画像,映像を活用する試みとして,まず国会審議について議員の発言内容に対応する審議映像を検索し,該当する審議映像の部分的視聴を可能にする「国会審議映像検索システム」を概説する.音声認識によるテキスト・データと会議録を同期させ,審議映像の時間情報と文字情報を同刻させる検索システムの利点を生かせば,同形異音語が実際にどのように発音されたのかを効率的に確認することができる.本稿では,国会議員が金大中と金日成を現地読みするか,日本語読みするか,その議員の党派性や拉致問題への取り組みとの関連を分析する.This paper offers an overview of the video retrieval system we have developed for the Japanese Diet. By using sound recognition techniques to match up the Diet proceedings and deliberation videos, our system allows one to retrieve the moment of video feeds he or she is interested in and visually understand the flow of parliamentary debates. Following the description of how our video retrieval system works, we utilize the video retrieval system that makes it possible to search the minute database by keywords and check how legislators pronounce the keywords differently. In this paper, we offer an analysis of whether legislators pronounce Kim Dae Jung and Kim Il Sung in Japanese or Hangul and suggest its interactive relationship with the party affiliation of legislators and their stance on North Korea’s abduction issue.

著者

増山 幹高 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.21-05, 2021-12

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国会審議には会議録に含まれない様々な情報がある.本稿では,文字情報に偏ってきた国会審議や立法過程に対する従来のアプローチから脱し,音声や画像,映像を活用する試みとして,まず国会審議について議員の発言内容に対応する審議映像を検索し,該当する審議映像の部分的視聴を可能にする「国会審議映像検索システム」を概説する.その国会発言の音声認識によるテキスト・データと会議録を同期させることで審議映像の時間情報と文字情報を同刻させる利点を生かし,音声認識と会議録との差分分析から両者の相違を「正文率」と捉え,その時系列的な分析から安倍首相の国会発言における変化を解明することを試みる.

著者

IIZUKA Michiko HOLLANDERS Hugo

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-29, 2020-01

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It has been widely recognized that innovation is an important driver of economic growth. Many Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have adopted innovation indicators to monitor innovation performance and to evaluate the impact of innovation policies. This paper argues that innovation indicators should be customized to the different socio-economic structures of LMICs. For this, the definition of innovation needs to be relevant to the multitude of innovation actors and processes in LMICs. LMICs also need to build competences not only in the construction of innovation indicators within their statistical systems, but also in the use of these indicators by among others policy makers. Especially as the fourth edition of the Oslo Manual (OM 2018) has broadened the scope of “innovation”, opening up policy space for LMICs to accommodate the diversity in their national systems of innovation and to develop accompanying innovation indicators.

著者

阿久根 優子 細江 宣裕

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-24, 2019-11

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Modern theories of trade and economic geography pay particular attention to the role of product differentiation under monopolistic competition in manufacturing, while agriculture is considered to produce homogeneous goods. By contrast, agribusiness studies shed light on active entrepreneurs who have high productivity and are engaged in product differentiation by creating new products in their niches. Given these two contradicting views of agriculture, we examine the incidence of farm heterogeneity and product differentiation. This study uses microdata of Japanese farmers to estimate their total factor productivity. We find that heterogeneity is relatively low in the horticulture, grain and soybean (excluding rice), and fruit farming sectors, and high in the livestock sectors. In addition, the degree of product differentiation is relatively high in the livestock sectors, and the elasticity of substitution is as high as three, which is similar to findings in earlier studies on agriculture and manufacturing.

著者

TAKAHASHI Kazushi NORITOMO Yuma IKEGAMI Munenobu JENSEN Nathaniel D.

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-22, 2019-10

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Using a unique data set covering four years and six semi-annual sales periods of an index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) product in southern Ethiopia, we examine the dynamics of pastoralists’ demand for IBLI. We find that: (1) there is intertemporal dependence of an uptake decision, represented by correlations of unobserved household factors over time; (2) conditional on previous purchase decisions, factors related to continuing the purchase of IBLI to augment existing coverage and replace lapsing contracts differ significantly; (3) controlling for time-invariant household-fixed effects, neither a one-shot subsidy nor the uptake of others in one’s social network influence subsequent demand, whereas less vegetation and reduced insurance premiums induce households to purchase IBLI. Overall, our study provides rigorous micro-evidence to better understand the dynamic uptake of IBLI and signifies the importance of an empirical analysis that takes into account the dynamic demand structure.

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-21, 2019-10

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Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in production of the iPhone X have moved up the value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated from Japan, Korean and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistics distortion of the Sino-US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a $332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of value added, the deficit is a mere $104. Depreciation of the yuan has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the yuan would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average; and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the yuan would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive US tariffs by depreciation of the yuan is mission impossible.

著者

細江 宣裕

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.19-13, 2019-08

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経済産業省は2019 年7 ⽉に優遇措置として与えられていた韓国への⼀部化学製品の輸出⼿続きの簡素化を取りやめると発表した。これによって、韓国国内の半導体、電⼦製品の⽣産や世界市場への供給が滞ることが懸念されている。本研究では、世界貿易の応⽤⼀般均衡モデルを⽤い、化学製品に対する⼀種の輸出税の賦課や、韓国の電⼦製品産業の⽣産性の低下が⽣じた場合を考えて、その経済的影響をシミュレーション分析によって明らかにする。その結果、⽣産性が低下する場合には、電⼦製品の国際市場や、韓国以外の国々の経済厚⽣(実質消費の変化額)に対する影響は全般に⼩さい。しかし、輸出税が課される形になると、貿易パタンは⼤きく変化し、⽇韓ともに経済厚⽣に対して同規模の悪影響が出る。ただし、両国間の経済規模の違いが⼤きいので、GDP ⽐で⾒ると⽇本が被る損失は、韓国のそれよりもかなり⼩さい。The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced recently that they will terminate preferential treatment in the licensing of specific chemical products for export to South Korea. This announcement evoked concern that the impact on Korean semiconductor and electronics industries, which rely heavily on imports from Japan, might cause a serious supply shortage in the global semiconductor market. To assess the economic impact of tighter export controls, this study simulates: (a) imposition of an export tax on chemical products; and (b) a productivity decline in the electronics sector in Korea, using a world trade computable general equilibrium model. The results of these simulations indicate that such a productivity decline would cause only slight harm to the Japanese and world economies, aside from the electronics sector in Korea, and that an export tax would significantly distort trade patterns and undermine the welfare of Japan and Korea in a similar magnitude. However, welfare loss normalized for GDP size would be far smaller in Japan than in Korea.

著者

新井 聖子

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-13, 2018-10

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近年の日本の基礎研究力の国際的地位の低下は、特に日本の企業や大学の国際競争力が高い材料科学,工学,化学などの分野で顕著である。一方、逆に特にこれらの分野で中国、韓国の基礎研究力が向上している。その理由は、特に1990年代以降の日本政府の大学院生倍増計画、ポスドク等1万人計画、留学生30万人計画などの政策をきっかけとして、バランスを失する形で中国や韓国からの留学生やポスドクの受け入れが急増し、日本から知識のスピルオーバーが起こったためである。このことは同じ技術領域で日本の企業と東アジアのライバル企業の間での熾烈な国際競争を招き、日本の産業や経済に大きな負の影響を与えることにつながった。基礎研究の東アジア化の度合いは国によって違いがある。日本では90年代後半から急速に進んだが、米国では2000年代後半ごろからで、東アジア化の影響が大きい学術分野は日本と米国で似ている。欧州ではまだあまり東アジア化の影響は大きくないが、近年中国からの留学生が急増していることから、今後おそらくもっと大きくなるとみられる。現在の日本政府の予算は、日本から海外に出る者への支援は海外から日本に来る留学生への支援に比して格段に少なく、日本に来る留学生の9割はアジアからである。途上国援助や学術論文を増やす目的のために日本への留学生数を増やすことは一時しのぎでしかなく、持続可能な方策ではない。今後の日本の政策としては、量よりも質の向上、生産性の向上を図るため、基礎研究の中心である欧米の国々と協力をより推進することが重要である。In recent years, Japan’s science ranking has steadily declined in fields such as materials science, engineering, and chemistry, in which Japanese companies and universities are highly competitive internationally. At the same time, the basic science capability of China and South Korea is improving, especially in these fields. These are because a large amount of knowledge spillover occurred from Japan through international students and postdocs from China and South Korea to Japan. The number of the international students and postdocs actually increased rapidly as a result of the Japanese government policies since the 1990s, in matters such as the doubling of the graduate student plan, the 10,000 postdocs plan, and the 300,000 exchange students plan. Those policy based actions led to intense international competition between Japanese companies and their East Asian counterparts in the same science and technology fields, all of which has had a substantial negative impact on Japanese industry and economy.The degree of East Asianization of basic science varies from country to country in the world. In Japan East Asianization rapidly gained momentum in the latter half of the 1990s, but in the US this began in the latter half of the 2000s. Much the same fields showed the strongest effects of East Asianization in both Japan and the US. Although the impact of East Asianization is not yet so serious in Europe, it is likely to carry more weight in the near future, given the recent rapid growth of Chinese student numbers.The Japanese government’s current budget to support students going abroad from Japan is much smaller than that to support international students coming to Japan, and ninety percent of those international students are from Asia. Accepting more and more international students to support developing countries (and to compensate for the decreasing number of Japanese doctoral students) may serve to increase academic publications in the short term, but it is surely unsustainable in the long run. The Japanese government should focus on the promotion of cooperation with Western countries, which are centers of basic science, in order to improve Japan’s science quality and productivity rather than quantity.

著者

XING Yuqing

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-17, 2018-11

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the on-going China-US trade war, similar to the Thucydides Trap in terms of competing for global economic dominance. It analyzes what the US attempts to achieve through the trade war and why China has been refusing the reciprocal trade relations urged by President Trump. It also identifies social and economic changes in American society, which motivate President Trump to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. It emphasizes that the trade war is asymmetric and China will definitely suffer more losses than the US if the trade war escalates further. At the end of the paper, it suggests that, to avoid the devastating result of the Thucydides Trap, China should further open its domestic market to American companies and actively pursue negotiations with the US for resolving the dispute.

著者

MARUYAMA Akiko

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-15, 2018-11

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This study analyzes a two-sided search model in which agents are vertically heterogeneous and agents on one side do not know their own type. Agents with imperfect self-knowledge update their beliefs based on the offers or rejections they receive from others. The results are as follows. An agent with imperfect self-knowledge lowers his or her reservation level if the agent receives a rejection that leads him or her to revise belief downward. However, an agent with imperfect self-knowledge does not raise his or her reservation level even if the agent receives an offer that leads him or her to revise his or her belief upward. As a result, an agent with imperfect self-knowledge has the highest reservation level when he or she has just entered the market; after that, a series of meetings gradually lowers his or her reservation level over the duration of the search.

著者

OGAWA Yoshitomo HOSOE Nobuhiro

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.18-06, 2018-08

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Given that tariffs continue to serve as a primary source of government revenue in many developing countries, we analyze the optimal indirect tax problem, consisting of commodity taxes and tariffs, under a revenue constraint. This study derives the revenue-constrained optimal commodity taxes and tariffs in both a small and a large country and then examines their structure and properties. We show that the optimal commodity tax structure follows the Ramsey rule regardless of whether a country is small or large, which implies that the same optimal commodity tax rules are applied across a range of situations. We also show that the optimal tariffs are not zero, but negative, even in the small country case, which implies stronger support for the World Bank’s recommendation of tariff reductions for a country facing a revenue constraint. In addition, this study analyzes the optimal commodity taxation when tariffs cannot be fully adjusted. Numerical examples demonstrate some of our major findings and the welfare gain of the optimal taxation for a few developing countries.

著者

LEON-GONZALEZ Roberto

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-16, 2018-03

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This paper develops a novel and efficient algorithm for Bayesian inference in inverse Gamma Stochastic Volatility models. It is shown that by conditioning on auxiliary variables, it is possible to sample all the volatilities jointly directly from their posterior conditional density, using simple and easy to draw from distributions. Furthermore, this paper develops a generalized inverse Gamma process with more flexible tails in the distribution of volatilities, which still allows for simple and efficient calculations. Using several macroeconomic and financial datasets, it is shown that the inverse Gamma and Generalized inverse Gamma processes can greatly outperform the commonly used log normal volatility processes with student-t errors or jumps in the mean equation.

著者

KISHI Toshimitsu

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-15, 2018-02

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During the Sato Administration period, the Cabinet Research Office, which was an intelligence agency directly under the Cabinet office, commissioned many studies regarding the nuclear policy of Japan. This chapter introduces seventeen of them with emphasis on three of them which seems to have influenced the development of non-nuclear policy of the Sato Administration. Scholars and intellectuals like Kei Wakaizumi, Teiji Yabe, Kiichi Saeki, Yonosuke Nagai, and Michio Royama were involved in these studies.

著者

丸茂 雄一

出版者

GRIPS Policy Information Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.9, 2009-08-14

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国民の安全保障観を分析するためには、世論調査を分析する必要がある。信頼性が高く、時系列的に世論を分析できるものは、内閣府が3年ごとに全国規模で実施している「自衛隊・防衛問題に関する世論調査」である。この世論調査は、例年問う基本的なタイプの設問と、個別テーマを短期間問うタイプの設問から、構成されている。基本的なタイプの設問を分析することにより、日本の安全を守るための方法について、「現状どおり(日米安保+自衛隊)」であることに国民的な合意があることがわかる。一方、自衛隊が今後力を入れていく面において、世代間の認識ギャップが一貫して存在することが明らかとなる。個別テーマの設問を分析することにより、日本の課題となっている自衛隊を活用する国際貢献策に関して、世代間の認識ギャップがわかる。

著者

CHEN Stacey H. HUANG Wu-Hsiung

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-09, 2017-09

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This paper considers the infinite alternative case to prove the existence of continuous social welfare aggregation that is anonymous and respects the unanimity. It clarifies the controversy between Chichilnisky (1982, QJE) and Huang for their contradictory results for the continuum case. Compared to their topological frameworks, the infinite alternative case is easier to understand and pinpoint their difference.

著者

CHEN Stacey H. CHEN Yu-Kuan WU Huey-Min

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-03, 2017-05

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Datasets of schools or hospitals often include an urban.rural divide drawn by government. Such partition is typically determined by subjective thresholds for a few variables, such as access to transportation and local population size, leaving aside relevant factors despite data availability. We propose to measure ‘remoteness’ by mapping a comprehensive set of covariates onto a scalar, and define an objective score of remoteness using a standard selection model. We apply the proposed method to data from Taiwanese public elementary schools. Our method replaces 35% and 47% respectively of the current official list of ‘remote’ and ‘extra-remote’ campuses, shifting the remoteness designation to those furthest from train stations, having the highest teacher vacancy percentages, and located in the least populous areas with the least well-educated populations. The campus- and district-level variables used are publicly available and periodically updated in most advanced economies, and the statistical model can be easily implemented.

著者

武田 文男 竹内 潔 水山 高久

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.17-02, 2017-04

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大規模な災害は発生自体が稀有であり,実体験からの対策には限界があるため,地域内での世代を超えた伝承や他地域からの伝聞に頼らざるを得ない。東日本大震災後の災害対策基本法の大改正において,「災害教訓の伝承」についても明記されたが,その他の災害対策に関する取り組みに比べ研究が進んでいない。本研究では,地方自治体における災害教訓伝承の取り組みの実態を把握するため,全国の都道府県・政令指定都市・県庁所在市・特別区の合計121団体に対して調査票を送付し,87団体(72%)から回答を得た。その結果,特に近年の大規模な災害を経験している地域の取り組みが顕著であり,その他の地域との連携や情報共有が課題であることが浮き彫りとなった。わが国の防災・危機管理政策が進展することを心から願うとともに,本研究がその一助となれば幸いである。Large-scale disasters are rare, and countermeasures from actual experiences are limited, so we have no choice but to depend on tradition over generations in the region and hearings from other regions. In the revision of the Basic Act on Disaster Control Measures after the Great East Japan Earthquake, "Transfer of Lessons Learned from Disaster" was also stated, but research has not been advanced as compared with other disaster countermeasures efforts.In this research, a survey form was sent to a total of 121 authorities nationwide (47 prefectures, 20 ordinance-designated cities, 31 prefectural capital cities and 23 special wards in Tokyo) in order to grasp the actual situation of efforts for transfer of lessons learned from disaster in local governments, we eventurally got a response from 87 author-ities (72%). As a result, in particular, efforts in areas experienced large-scale disasters in recent years are notable, reveal-ing that cooperation with other areas and information sharing are issues.I sincerely hope that Japan's disaster prevention and crisis management policy will progress, and I hope this research will be of assistance.

著者

春原 浩樹 水山 高久 武田 文男

出版者

GRIPS Policy Research Center

雑誌

GRIPS Discussion Papers

巻号頁・発行日

vol.16-32, 2017-03

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災害危険区域は昭和25(1950)年の建築基準法制定時に創設された制度で,これまでに22千箇所以上が指定され,区域外への移転を支援する制度も用意されているが,区域内にはまだ多数の住宅・建築物が存在する.本研究は,災害危険区域について,国会会議録に基づくこれまでの議論の整理,国土交通省の調査に基づくこれまでの指定状況の整理,関係県・市町村の条例に基づく現在の建築禁止・建築制限の内容の複数の指定理由にまたがる横断的な調査・分析を行うとともに,区域内の建築物の安全性向上のための改修支援策の事例を調査することにより,災害危険区域における今後の対応の可能性を検討しようとするものである.The disaster risk area designation was created when the Building Standard Law was enacted in 1950, and so far more than 22, 000 areas have received the designation. Assistance programs for reloca-tion to a non-designated area are available, but a large number of buildings, residential or otherwise, still remain in designated areas. This study aims to explore possible future policies for disaster risk areas by conducting a systematic review of past debates on the issue using the Diet records; an overview of past designations based on the survey conducted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; and a cross-sectional analysis of present prohibitions and restrictions on buildings imposed by the respective municipal and/or prefectural ordinances relative to the type of hazard identified for the designation. The study also includes a survey of the actual measures to promote renovation in disaster risk areas with the objective of upgrading the safety of buildings therein.